The 2009 Stanley Cup Playoffs will begin for the Flyers at 7:00 at Mellon Arena in Pittsburgh against the Penguins and public enemy #1, Sidney Crosby. This matchup is the most compelling in the East because it pits blood in-state rivals against each other. To boot, both the Flyers and the Penguins finished the regular season with 99 points so this 4-5 seed series promises to be tight. We’re going to take up some space breaking-down the matchups, factors and intangibles that will prove decisive in this featured first-round pairing.

Coaching

Virtual unknown, Dan Bylsma, took over behind the Penguins’ bench in February when they canned Michel Therrien. Since then Bylsma’s team has gone 18-3-4 and has secured first-round home ice advantage (the 40 points accumulated by Bylsma’s Penguins makes him the 2nd winningest coach in NHL history in his first 25 games) . The question mark for Bylsma, of course, is his inexperience and predicting how he’ll handle the “second season” is hard to do. With that said, he’s obviously provided a spark and made Pittsburgh (along with Carolina) into the hottest team in the East over the past 2 months.

John Stevens will have the Flyers better situated this year going into the playoffs than last year. The maturation of the offense (6 20+ goal scorers) has provided an increase of 15 goals (260 total) from last season (outscoring the Penguins both seasons, 245-240 in 07-08 and 260-258 this year) which has been the reason the Flyers are at this point. Stevens’ line juggling has produced a team that can score with anyone. Add to that Stevens’ deep run in last year’s playoffs and the coaching edge goes with the Flyers.

Offense

This is the department where the two teams appear to be evenly matched. The Flyers and Penguins have both scored 264 goals this year which puts them only behind Ovechkin’s Capitals and the first-place Bruins in that department in the Eastern Conference. Head-to-head this season, both teams have scored 21 goals against each other. The Flyers have won 67% of their games when they score first (an iron-clad key to victory in the playoffs) whereas the Penguins have won 65% of their games when scoring first. The Flyers are a +29 in goals scored at home and the Penguins are +26 at the Igloo and the Flyers hold a +6 edge in goals scored on the road over the Penguins. Furthermore, the Flyers scored 68, 91 and 95 goals by period this season and the Penguins have 75, 89 and 88 showing a 7 goal advantage for each team in both the first and third period scoring. And in case you were wondering, both teams have scored 6 overtime goals this year.

Clearly we’re looking at two teams who are about as evenly-matched as possible offensively. While the Penguins do it largely on the shoulders of Malkin and Crosby (113 and 103 points this season; Malkin has 26 points in 25 career playoff games and Crosby has 32 points in 25 career games), the Flyers stretch their scoring out amongst more players (the top-6 Flyers point getters this year have 392 points and the median points total is 65 whereas the top-6 Penguins get 56% of their 386 points from Malkin and Crosby with a median of only 46 points).

What all this means is that the Penguins are going to need to rely on their big guns for goals and the Flyers will need more balanced scoring (led by Jeff Carter). This dynamic is why they’ll be playing the series and who can utilize their offensive strategy and system better will be the team who wins the series. This can’t be predicted so I’m giving the offensive edge to the Push.

Defense

Neither team is going to field any individual Norris Trophy candidates nor are they going to go down in history as the 1985 Bears. Again demonstrating the parity in this series, the Flyers have allowed 238 goals and the Penguins 239. Maybe the key factor is shots on goal: the Flyers have given up 2668 (averaging 32.5 shots per game) and the Penguins 2484 (averaging 30.2 per game). While the differential is not that large, better players generate more goals with more shots taken so Crosby and Malkin will be dangerous if they’re given too many shots. This will have to be an area where the Flyers improve on their season totals if they’re going to win.

The Flyers defense is a plus-92 on the season whereas the Penguins defense is a plus-60. This signals the Flyers’ defense’s ability to impact the goal differential more effectively than the Penguins. Kris Letang, Brooks Orpik, Sergei Gonchar, Alex Goligoski, Rod Scudieri and Hal Gill average 20:20 minutes of ice time per game; the Flyers top 6 defensemen, Kimmo Timonen, Ryan Parent, Andrew Alberts, Randy Jones, Lasse Kukkonen and Braydon Coburn average 18:64 minutes of ice time per game. The Flyers are going to have to lean on their top pairing of Timonen and Coburn for more time and more effective play against Pittsburgh’s top 2 lines.

Another defensive matchup to watch: Selke Award candidate, Mike Richards’ ability to tie-up Sidney Crosby. If the forwards can back-check and handle the Penguins’ centers, the Flyers should come out with an overall defensive edge. If the Penguins can get Crosby to play his stellar two-way game and get great play from their forwards in their own zone, this could go the other way. Timonen and Gonchar are the defensive leaders for both teams and will need to play like it for their teams to advance. I can’t see a clear-cut defensive edge so I’m calling this another Push.

Special Teams

This one’s real simple: the Flyers power play is 22.4 % and third-best in the East versus Pittsburgh’s 17.2%. The Flyers kill off 83% of their penalties; the Penguins are almost as good at 82.3%. The Flyers have scored 71 power play goals, 17 shorhanded goals and have given up only 1 shorhanded goal against. The Penguins have scored 62 power play goals, scored 7 shorthanded goals and given up 13 shorthanded goals. The only factor that could sway this in the Penguins’ direction is that the Penguins have only given up 397 minutes in penalties this year to the Flyers 446. If the Flyers take too many penalties, the percentages shift in the Penguins’ favor. Provided there’s isn’t too great an imbalance in penalty minutes, the clear edge here goes to the Flyers.

Goaltending

Everyone and their grandmother in the Delaware Valley has lamented Martin Biron’s inconsistent play this year. Biron has gone 29-19-5 this year and 5-2 against Pittsburgh in his Flyer career. His save percentage is .915 with a GAA of 2.76 overall. He’s faced 1718 shots and has posted 2 shutouts. Compare that to Marc-Andre Fleury for Pittsburgh: 35-18-7 with a .912 and a GAA of 2.67. He’s stopped 1850 shots and has 4 shutouts. These numbers are very comparable.

In last year’s playoffs, he went 14-6 with a .933 save percentage and 1.97 GAA. As hot as Biron was in the first two series last year, his totals were 9-8 with a .904 save percentage and a GAA of 2.97. When you consider Fleury’s statistics include the Cup finals against the offensive juggernaut Detroit Red Wings, I think his performance last year was terrific.

Of the top 12 goaltending statistics, Biron averages a rank of 20th in the NHL among goalies. For Fleury, he averages 11th place. This, combined with slightly-better regular season vitals for Fleury and a decisively-better 2008 playoff gives the goaltending edge to the Penguins.

Overall the series looks to be incredibly tight. The Flyers are 2-1-2 in terms of advantages in this analysis. How will home ice for the Penguins affect the series? Given how close the matchup is, the prospect of a Game 7 in Pittsburgh is very real so that could be huge for the Pens. But remember this Flyers team has won a Game 7 on the road recently (last year against Washington).

The Flyers are only 2-4 against the Penguins this year and the Penguins have home ice advantage and are coming off a red-hot second half of the year. With that said, John Stevens’ ability to get the most of his players will be the key for the Flyers. I say this game will go 7 only because that total accurately reflects how well these teams match up against each other. If the Flyers can balance their attack, provide a playing environment where Biron can feel comfortable and shine and win one of the first two in Pittsburgh, I think they have a chance. Unfortunately, I’m relying of ifs to support a Flyers prediction and I think the Penguins have shown themselves to be better at goalie, better down the stretch (Flyers are 10-10 in their last 20) and they will enjoy a clean, comfortable sheet of ice at home for Game 7. Penguins in 7.