Thank the baseball gods for Matt Capps. In his best Brad Lidge impersonation, the Pirates reliever threw a 9th inning batting practice session that allowed the Phillies to complete a big comeback for their 8th win in the last 9 tries (including 91 and 94 mph fastball grapefruits to Matt Stairs and Ryan Howard that led to the 2 dingers). Excitement was the order of the evening as Raul Ibanez contributed to the thrilling finish in his first game back from injury by belting a ground rule double that would become the winning run.

Behind the curtain, though, troubling trends continue. Cole Hamels was awful again, giving up 3 homers in 6 innings. Last night marked the 6th time in the last 7 starts that Hamels has allowed at least 7 hits. Last year’s 2008 World Series MVP now has an ERA of 4.87, good for 40th place in the N.L; going by ERA alone, if Hamels pitched for the Giants (currently the Phillies first-round opponent in the playoffs) he would be the 5th starter on that team.

Getting the Mets, Reds and Pirates at home to finish the first half of the season was just what the Phillies needed to rekindle some confidence going into the second part of the campaign. From the observer’s standpoint though, big questions remain and as fun as 21-run wins and 9th inning comebacks are, what we’ve seen in the past 9 games are wins against sub-.500 teams. On one hand, give the Phillies credit for winning the games they should. On the other, we shouldn’t get overconfident because of a 4-run comback against a closer who is 1-5 with a 6.21 ERA.

The Phillies still have a long way to go before they’re in playoff shape. Their starting pitching needs to improve and we need to see whether they can play better against quality opponents: since June 1, the Phillies are 4-6 against teams with records better than .500  and overall this year, 64% of the Phillies wins have come against teams with losing records. The schedule has been kind to them, no doubt, and for the most part they’ve done their part (after all, they are in first place).

Starting pitching, starting pitching, starting pitching. As great as this offense can be, teams don’t win World Series by outscoring opponents (technically, of course, they do), they win by outpitching them and we know damned well Matt Capps won’t be in the other dugout in October. The Philles starters need to pitch better and Ruben Amaro needs to get them a real top-of-the-rotation arm. If that happens and the starters improve, there’s no reason this team can’t repeat. But if they rest on their laurels and fail to get any better, don’t be surprised if they don’t get out of the first round.