Roy Halladay will get the ball for the Phillies tonight as they open their series at home with the Atlanta Braves. The Phils are currently 5 games behind the Braves in the standings and are coming off an embarrassing series loss to the Pittsburgh Pirates, a team 22 games under .500. The All-Star break rolls around next week, giving the Phillies a few days to rest their thumbs, toes, hips and heads. But before that happens however, they’ll have to show some life against a team that could put them in a very deep hole if this series doesn’t go the Phillies’ way.

Insofar as it’s reasonable to say a series in July is a must-win, this 3-game set against Atlanta is a must-win. If the Phillies lose the series they will be, at best, six games behind Atlanta. Coming to town for 4 games immediately after the Braves series will be the NL Central-leading Cincinnati Reds, a team that just last week won their series with the Phillies. Adding to the Phillies standings’ woes is the fact that sandwiched between themselves and the Braves is the Mets, making 2 teams with which the Phils will have to contend.

Because we know this team so well and because of the success they’ve had in the past 3 seasons, we feel a sense of confidence that they can rebound in the second half of the season. But the Phillies aren’t the only ones who’ll have something to say about that; such is life when you’re in 3rd place. If the Phillies are going to position themselves to make a postseason appearance, it’s reasonable to say they’re going to have to start with their ace tonight. Coolstadings.com has the chances of the Phillies reaching to playoffs at 22.7% (based on statistical models). You can only imagine that getting lower if they reemerge in the 2nd half more than 5 games out.

As JGT pointed out earlier in the day, Dan Haren is rumored to be on the Phillies’ wishlist. Haren is struggling this season in Arizona and has the poor record to show for it: 7-6 with a 4.56 ERA (for as mediocre as that W-L record is, it has fewer demerits than Roy Halladay’s). Goodtimes seemed to shrug-off the huge upside of landing Haren by saying he’d be an “upgrade from (Kyle) Kendrick.” He certainly would, but to describe Haren as a better fit in the 5-spot than Kendrick is to ignore the fact that Haren has been one of baseball’s better pitchers over his 8-year career.

As far as how he’d fit in with the Phillies, Haren’s career numbers make him a rival to steal the #2 spot from Cole Hamels. Haren has a marginally-better career ERA to Hamels (3.69-3.71), a better strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.9-3.5) and a slightly better WHIP (1.19-1.193). That’s several blocks from the Kyle Kendrick neighborhood.

While Hamels’ career winning percentage is higher (.574-.558), that’s probably more a product of playing the majority of his career on a playoff-caliber team whereas Haren’s spent the past six years in Oakland and Arizona. And for whatever it’s worth, Haren’s highest finish in Cy Young voting was 5th and that was last year. Hamels’ best finish in CY voting was 6th in 2007. To boot, Haren has pitched in 3 All-Star games to Hamels’ 1.

I don’t bring this up to disparage Cole Hamels, rather to point out how good Haren is. For a guy buried in relative obscurity in Arizona, his addition to the Phils’ rotation would make their top-3 competitive with the top-heavy rotations in Atlanta, St. Louis and San Francisco. Keep in mind that Haren has a better career WHIP and a higher strikeout-to-walk ratio than the Phils’ staff ace, Roy Halladay.

I don’t know what the Phillies would have to offer Arizona in trade; the D-Backs seem to always be in rebuilding mode so they’d presumably want young talent and we know what that cupboard looks like around here. Haren is under contract for another 2 seasons after 2010 (plus a 2013 club option) and he’ll average between $12.75 and $15.5 million the next few years. That’s a big price tag for a Phillies team that wasn’t willing to spend $9 million on Cliff Lee.

But if Ruben Amaro wants to erase his collosal, blunder-filled offseason (and help people forget about the fact Chase Utley is probably gone until September), pursuing Haren wouldn’t be a bad place to start. This kind of midseason move is what a 2-time defending N.L. pennant winner embroiled in a bitter division race should do. I know Jamie Moyer has been very good this season and that Haren’s isn’t cheap. But I’d rather see him on the mound in September and October.

Things could not be any worse for the Phillies’ bullpen than they already were coming into the season. Their closer, Brad Lidge, was coming off an historically-bad 2009. J.C. Romero has been in some kind of interminable injury limbo. And the best Ruben Amaro could offer in the offseason was the acquisitions of Danys Baez and Jose Contreras. Fast forward to now: Brad Lidge has returned and shown himself to be as questionable as ever. In 1.1 innings pitched this season, Lidge has compiled a 2.25 WHIP and an ERA of 6.75.

No matter. Amaro and the Phillies’ pitching-challenged brain trust have had their backup plan in the works for a while. No, we’re not talking about an aggressive free agent signing during the winter. We’re talking about Ryan Madson, a guy who’s appeared in 9 games this season and has (yes, this is possible) a worse ERA than Lidge: 7.00. Madson’s season highlight is blowing a 3-run, 9th inning lead against Atlanta and in the process spoiling a desperately-need great start from Kyle Kendrick. The silver lining in all this is that Inquirer writer, Matt Gelb, is reporting that Madson will miss “significant” time due to a broken right toe sustained when he kicked a chair out of frustration in the San Francisco visitors’ locker room. As a result Jose Contreras will assume the closing duties.

The blame for the bullpen’s amateurish incompetence rests solely on the shoulders of Ruben Amaro. He has known all along that even with a competent bullpen like the one the Phillies fielded in 2008, his manager is incapable of using them properly. The only reason the Phils weren’t exposed during that stretch was the unworldly perfection of Brad Lidge at the back end. But with questions of age and declining talent going forward, the Phillies have done nothing to improve the part of their team that is as glaring as a strawberry-sized lip herpe.

While Amaro has spent the better part of the last calendar year pulling his pants down to show the world what a potentate he is, his two big deals have done nothing to improve this team. Roy Halladay is a great pitcher, but the role that he occupies on this team is something they already had covered in the person of Cliff Lee. And Ryan Howard would have been here anyway had he not been resigned to a mammoth contract.

So when the Phillies line up tonight against the N.L’s. best team, Amaro can reflect on the fact that the team they’ll face has a combined ERA of 2.52, good for best in the league. While names like Jaime Garcia (the rookie who stoned the Phillies last night) may not shake down the thunder, the Phillies may take notice of Adam Wainwright, who will start tonight with his 2.13 ERA. Wainwright has recorded quality starts in 23 of his last 24 outings and the Cardinals as a team have gone 12 starts where their starters have gone at least six innings and not recorded more than 3 earned runs.

That mastery of the starting rotation means the Cards’ bullpen is less of a factor, something that gives them a decided advantage over their opponents (they’ve won 8 of their last 9). With yet another question mark taking the hill for the Phillies tonight in Cole Hamels, the tipping point of the bullpen’s entry into the game is likely to be earlier than later. And that, Mr. Amaro, is not a good thing.

Last night marked the first time a Mets pitcher has allowed 10 runs and 4 homers in a single outing. On the hill for that disgraceful performance was none other than Mets’ ace, Johan Santana. Placido Polanco, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley homered, Jamie Moyer walked and Shane Victorino hit a grand slam off Santana last night. Sure, this is only one game but it was the rubber match of the series between two bitter rivals. 36 total runs were scored in the series and none of the 3 games was decided by less than a 6-run margin.

It’s early in the season but the Phillies ability to open up a collective offensive salvo after losing 9-1 on Friday was the confidence boost this team needed at the plate. The Phils scored 4-more runs in their last two games than they had in their previous 5 games combined. More importantly, they retook control of the N.L. East standings by winning the series against the Mets.

Up next for the Phils is the St. Louis Cardinals who open a 4-game set at the Park tonight. The Phillies will miss Chris Carpenter during the series, having instead to face Jaime Garcia, Adam Wainwright, Brad Penny and Kyle Lohse. They’ll then play two at home against Atlanta and then hit the road for a 3-game set in Denver. Including the Mets series, the Phils will have played 13 consecutive games once this brutal stretch is over. Beating the pants off the Mets was certainly the way to kick it off.

We’re not going to let the lingering stench of Jerseyites puking on little girls ruin an otherwise exciting start to the 2010 season for Ruben Amaro’s trophy pitcher, Roy Halladay. After silencing the Braves’ bats for 8 innings last night in Atlanta, Halladay did what it looks like most Phils’ starters are going to have to do in order for this team to have a chance: trot back out to the mound and finish the game. Halladay scattered 5 hits and 1 walk over 9 innings last night to get the win.

In doing so he single-handedly overcame the two obstacles that had plagued the Phillies over the last 4 games. One, he prevented the bullpen from losing the game and two, he pitched so well that the sputtering offense’s measly contribution of 2 runs was good enough for a tally in the win column. Halladay is now 2 outs short of averaging a complete game for each of his 4 starts. And in that time he’s gone 4-0 with a .82 ERA, a league-leading 28 strikeouts and, get this: 3 walks.

The Phillies offense is clearly stuck in neutral as they’ve begun to face Major League pitchers following the Nationals and Astros fell-good tour that opened the season. Tonight they’ll have to deal with yet another real hurler in Derek Lowe. But some fortuitous rotation scheduling in their upcoming series against Arizona and San Francisco means they’ll miss Dan Haren and Matt Cain (though they will face Tim Lincecum on April 28). That may be just what the doctor ordered for this lineup to get themselves into midseason shape. After all, Roy Halladay can’t pitch every night.

Kyle Kendrick’s career may have been ruined last night. After out-pitching Jamie Moyer in spring training, Kendrick was relegated to bullpen duty to start the 2010 campaign. Joe Blanton’s abdominal injury forced Kendrick into the starting rotation and after two starts he was not looking good, amassing an ERA of 17.47. So needless to say, last night’s start against the Braves was probably a chance for him to right his ship and begin to show the organization that keeping him around makes sense.

But in the end it was the organization that let Kendrick down. All he did last night was pitch 8 complete innings, allowing no runs and giving up 4 hits and 2 walks. Those are numbers that you’d expect from Roy Halladay, not the 5th-and-a-half starter. Kendrick did his part and fans were probably feeling good about his teammates’ ability to get three outs and nail down the win with a 3-run lead going into the 9th.

Sure as turnips fall off trucks, however, Ryan Madson came in to close the game and promptly gave up consecutive home runs in to Jason Heyward and Troy Glaus. Not to be outdone, medieval retread Jose Contreras gave up the game-winning dinger to Nate McLouth in the 10th. The grand irony of watching the Phillies bullpen collapse was the fact that Billy Wagner pitched a perfect 10th inning for the Braves and got the win.

In the offseason when Ruben Amaro was trying to show the world he could imprint his name on a World Series winner, every ounce of energy was poured into signing Roy Halladay. For good measure, Amaro added Placido Polanco so that the Phillies could improve upon their already ostentatious offensive numbers. But in a series of non-moves that reeked of ignorance, Amaro did nothing to improve the one area of the team that has been awful for the past two years: the bullpen.

Had it not been for Brad Lidge’s unworldly perfect season in 2008, that team may well have not won the World Series because of how shaky the pen was (excepting Lidge, of course). And last year’s bullpen was downright awful. So what should the G.M. do as a follow up? Well, for starters lets shitcan our best long reliever, Chan Ho Park. Then let’s go into the season with a closer who blew 11 saves last year, a set-up guy in J.C. Romero who hasn’t seen rubber in ages and a few 54th-round fantasy baseball draft scrubs as offseason pickups.

If this team does not win the N.L. East, it will be because of its bullpen. Plain and simple. It is the part of this team that has been bad for multiple seasons and Amaro’s inability to address it with anything other than Danys Baez and Jose Contreras is a sign of either ignorance of an unhealthy obsession with putting all his eggs in the Halladay basket. So going forward, let’s hope Kyle Kendrick and the rest of the rotation can expect a little more help from organization than they got last night.

This is a good week for Philadelphia sports because it’s sure to usher in some familiar stupidity. Trending topics right now are the following:

NFL: Typical to the way the NFL has put a strangle-hold on your sports consumption, this week contains yet more all-world hype that has nothing to do with an actual game. The NFL schedule comes out tonight at 7:30 and the NFL draft is Thursday at 7:30. Texas safety, Earl Thomas, is rumored to be high on the Eagles’ wish list. If they choose a safety, the right choice would be USC behemoth, Taylor Mays. But like Todd McShay and Mel Kiper (who are also not employed by NFL teams for the purpose of drafting players), what do I know? And from the “maybe this guy is a complete jackass after all” file, Donovan McNabb has stated his desire to be reunited with Terrell Owens. Huh?

MLB: John Gonzalez has yet again bitten our style. In today’s Inquirer, Gonzo points out how now that McNabb’s gone, Cole Hamels is becoming the new punching bag in Philly. It’s a pretty good point, but like Burger King’s new Sausage Egg Muffin for $1, it’s not very original. And then there’s Kyle Kendrick, who’s slated to go tonight against the Braves. Kendrick is a bad start or two away from playing on the other side of the Delaware River. With a 17.47 ERA in 5.2 innings this year, Kendrick’s going to have to be good tonight if he wants to avoid being traded to Japan for the hot dog eater.

NBA: Playoff excitement.

NHL: The Flyers look to put a choke-hold on the Devils tonight at the Wachovia Center. A Flyers win tonight will put them in a commanding 3-1 position in the series. Keys to tonight’s game: Scott Hartnell not spending most of it in the penalty box and the Flyers’ ability to keep Ilya Kovalchuk and Zach Parise in check. Kovalchuk only has one goal in the series but he has registered 4 assists. Parise has 1 goal and 2 assists. These guys are the Devils’ big guns and if they account for 2 or more goals in this game, the Flyers will most likely find themselves knotted at 2-2.

Looking ahead to the Phillies weekend series against the Marlins, I asked myself whether this team would be good enough to win a series (at home) against a real Major League team. Three games and two losses later the answer is a resounding no. Their stud #2, Cole Hamels, showed yet again that he can’t beat a quality team. While the offense looks great against teams like the Astros, Nate Robertson and Ricky Nolasco held the Phils’ bats to 1 run in 2 games. Hell, even in the Friday night win the bullpen did everything it could (but failed, of course) to lose a seemingly insurmountable lead.

This team is a shell of its former self. People in this town like to walk around and pretend their team is a contender. Still drunk off the intoxications of the past two seasons, fans overlook how awful this team really is. Reality check, folks: it’s been six months since this team played in the World Series. And a year and a half since they’ve won one. I don’t know about you but I’m not going to sit around and look at this team with good-ol’-days glasses on and I’m sure as shit not going to trick myself into thinking this playoff pretender of a team has a real shot at it this year.

With no young talent to speak of, the Phillies front office has dug itself into a hole by trading away 200 prospects for one spot in the rotation. And they’re trying to make up for it by marching out dinosaurs like Roy Halladay, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard in the hopes that fans will keep coming to the park out of some kind of nostalgia. No thank you.

Sure, they’ve won twice as many games as they’ve lost. And sure, they have MLB’s best run differential at +29. But I’m not going to take the bait just because they’re first in the NL in batting average, runs scored, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS and ERA. Yeah, that sounds nice, but they’ve only stolen 3 bases all year. Frauds.

So to all you Kool Aid drinkers, enjoy. You can keep riding high off of old glories on the baseball field but some of us refuse to live in the past. We’re now TWO SEASONS removed from a title. And with 2 consecutive losses under their belts, the Phillies are showing what a house of cards really looks like. I’ve had it with these bums.

The Atlanta Braves are a team that could give the Phillies a lot of trouble this season. Because they’re still a work in progress (and because the Phillies have won 2 consecutive pennants), we believe it would be irresponsible to expect they’ll actually win the division this year. But the Braves have two-highly touted entities working in their favor this season: their starting rotation and all-world prospect, Jason Heyward.

Let’s start with the rotation, which Paul Hagen of the Daily News believes is the best in the division. Veteran Tim Hudson will get the ball for opening day and despite a 2009 season where he only appeared in 7 games, his career record is 148-78 with a 3.49 ERA. His has won the same number of games as Phillies ace, Roy Halladay (with only 2 more losses) and his ERA is only .06 worse than Doc’s. Directly matching-up starting pitchers doesn’t mean much in the regular season but Hudson’s career numbers (including a 20-win season) indicate that he’s capable of being very productive for Atlanta.

Following Hanson in the rotation are Tommy Hudson and Jair Jurrjens. Hanson’s strong rookie season saw him compile incredible numbers for a 22-year old: 11-4 with a sub-3 ERA (2.89) and a SO-BB ratio of almost 3-1. While a sophomore slump is possible, his promise brings quite a bit to the Braves #2 spot. As for Jair Jurrjens, the 24-year old has a 30-21 career record with a 3.21 ERA. For a guy in the #3 spot, he’ll be expected to improve upon his 13 and 14-win seasons in 2008 and ’09. The Braves’ top-3 guys’ career win/loss records are collectively 4% better than the Phillies top-3 pitchers which shows Atlanta has an excellent core.

The 4th and 5th starters for the Braves are Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami. The 36-year old Lowe has a solid winning percentage of .547 and has a World Series title under his belt (’04 Red Sox) as well as a no-hitter to his name. While he can be wildly inconsistent (as he was for the Dodgers in ’05 and ’07), few teams would be put-out by having a guy like him in the 4th spot. As for Kawakami, the 34-year old pitched poorly for the Braves last year, going 7-12 with a 3.86 ERA. A 2-1 SO-BB ratio looks good but he’s still a question mark in the final rotation spot.

And then there’s Jason Heyward. To listen to Baseball America or Baseball Today, you’d think he was the 2nd coming of Willie Mays (hence his nickname, the “J-Hey Kid”). Heyward is a five-tooler projected to be a consistent 30 HR guy. Coming into 2009 Baseball America had him rated as the #5 overall prospect. At 6′-4” and 245 lbs., he’s got the frame to go deep and a .318 minor league average to go along with his power potential. Heyward is only 20 and he’s already been named to the Braves opening day roster. The Braves’ expectations are high (as are Keith Law’s and Jonathan Mayo of mlb.com; both have him as the #1 prospect in baseball this season). While Heyward probably won’t be single-handedly winning a division title for Atlanta this year, his exceptional talent will most likely translate to an increase in production over last season from his spot in the lineup.

As for the rest of the Braves team, Paul Hagen has their bullpen ranked 2nd in the division behind the Mets, their infield ranked 3rd behind the Phillies and Marlins and their outfield ranked 4th, one spot above the Nationals. Their bench is ranked 4th by the Daily News writer and they come in 2nd behind the Phillies in intangibles. Will this be the Braves’ year? Probably not, but their upside means a lot more to be concerned about for the Phillies.

The Phillies have released their promotional schedule for the upcoming season. The first dollar dog night will be May 3 against the Cardinals (it’s also Asian Pacific Celebration). Subsequent DDNs will be May 17 against the Pirates, June 7 against the Padres, July 5 against the Braves, September 6 against the Marlins and September 20 against the Braves.

Interestingly enough, Schedule Magnet Day will be September 26 against the Mets. That seems like a promotion that should take place earlier in the season than the last week. Other awesome giveaways are the Ryan Howard collectible tin on April 17 against the Marlins and IBEW Local 98 t-shirt day on September 5 against the Brewers.

It may seem hypocritical that we’re promoting hot dog eating and the Phillies on the same day as we celebrate Charlie Manuel’s weight loss but man, $1 for a full meal is hard to pass up.