The Phillies have released their promotional schedule for the upcoming season. The first dollar dog night will be May 3 against the Cardinals (it’s also Asian Pacific Celebration). Subsequent DDNs will be May 17 against the Pirates, June 7 against the Padres, July 5 against the Braves, September 6 against the Marlins and September 20 against the Braves.

Interestingly enough, Schedule Magnet Day will be September 26 against the Mets. That seems like a promotion that should take place earlier in the season than the last week. Other awesome giveaways are the Ryan Howard collectible tin on April 17 against the Marlins and IBEW Local 98 t-shirt day on September 5 against the Brewers.

It may seem hypocritical that we’re promoting hot dog eating and the Phillies on the same day as we celebrate Charlie Manuel’s weight loss but man, $1 for a full meal is hard to pass up.

Let me start by saying that I will certainly not be unhappy in any way with Roy Halladay as the Phillies’ ace. I argued extensively last season for the Phils to make a move to get him and he is one of the top-5 pitchers in baseball, perhaps made even better in the short run by being a veteran of baseball’s best division. And now Halladay will land in the N.L. which by recent experience should mean he’ll get even more of a boost. From a performance perspective, Halladay probably becomes the best pitcher in the National League going into 2010.

But there are questions surrounding this move and its timing that can’t be ignored. First and foremost is the issue of what the Phillies have given up to acquire Halladay. Because Cliff Lee is gone as a result of this trade, the Phillies are simply replacing one ace with another. Let’s start with the trade that rented Cliff Lee for 12 starts to close out the 2009 season (and 4 brilliant playoff starts). According to mlb.com the Phillies will part with previously “untouchable” top pitching prospect, Kyle Drabek, as well as outfielder Michael Taylor and catcher Travis d’Arnaud. Combine that with the players they sent to Cleveland in the Lee deal (pitchers Jason Knapp and Carlos Carrasco, catcher Lou Marson and infielder Jason Donald) and you have a pretty high price paid for what amounts to be one pitcher.

In fairness, prospects are exactly that: an unknown commodity. But emptying close to your entire minor league tank to fill one rotation spot seems to be a bold gamble, even moreso when you consider the fact that Roy Halladay is negligably better than Cliff Lee. To boot, Roy Halladay has pitched 4 more seasons than Cliff Lee and has pitched exactly 850 innings more than Lee, meaning his treads are a lot more worn than Lee’s.

Read the rest of this entry »

Third-year Rookie sensation J.A. Happ was the runner up to Marlins outfielder, Chris Coghlan, in this year’s N.L. Rookie of the Year voting. Happ went 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA. He led N.L. rookie pitchers in innings, strikeouts and complete games. Happ finished ahead of Braves starter Tommy Hanson who went 11-4 with a 2.89 ERA. J.A. Happ received 10 first-place votes to Coghlan’s 17 and was the only player to have appeared on all 32 voters’ ballots.

Coghlan’s season was certainly worthy of the award. He was second to only Derek Jeter in OBP for leadoff hitters (.397 to .409) and finished the season with a .321 average. After an early slump, Coghlan hit .372 after the All-Star break, the first time any N.L. rookie has led the league in hits post-break. During that stretch he had 113 hits, tied for the most among any N.L. player in the past 45 years.

Johnny Goodtimes did all of our sentiments a service with his great piece on how things feel today and how they’ll be remembered going forward. The only thing I can add to that is the expression of a sense of pride I have in how well this team performed and how gracious and classy Philly has been in defeat. When you think about it objectively, the odds of winning a World Series are never good, no matter how strong a team is on paper. This Phillies team not only won 1, but they returned to the big stage and showed not only how good they have been but how promising they are for the years to come.

The odds for next year’s World Series champion are out. The Phillies stand at 10-1. In shocking fashion the yearly ritual, the Yankees and Red Sox are the favorites to win at 3-1 and 7-1, respectively. Like the Phillies the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim of Orange County of California are listed at 10-1 as are the Cardinals, the other N.L. team in the top-5. Other N.L. aspirants are the Dodgers (12-1), the Cubs (15-1), the Rockies (20-1) and the Braves (20-1). And in case you were wondering, the Mets are listed at 15-1.

So our favorite sport here at iSportacus is in hibernation for the next 3 months which gives us time to refocus on a very good Flyers team, an Eagles team that is as inconsistent as my putter and a Sixers team which we’re forced to cover periodically. Penn State football should get a boost here in the coming weeks; they have a huge game at home this Saturday against Ohio State in which they’re favored by 3.5. Because they have a loss to Iowa on their card and the Hawkeyes are undefeated, hopes for a trip to the Rose Bowl are distant but hey, they could finish their season with 1 loss which is pretty damned good. And finally, look for a little Temple football coverage. Quietly, they’ve won 6 straight and are bowl eligible for the first time in a long time.

It’s been a great baseball season. Until the proverbial pitchers-and-catchers date, let’s try and enjoy the bounty of other quality sports taking place around Philly.

pic via Balls, Sticks and Stuff

The Phillies captured their 3rd-straight N.L. East title last night by beating the Astros virtue of the Braves losing moments before Brad Lidge was brought into the game with 26 Astros’ outs in the book. I thought that move by Charlie Manuel showed what a gentleman he is to make a point on the grand stage of the team’s clinching the division that even its most maligned star will not be thrown on the trash heap. Of course, Jamie Moyer’s season-ending injury prevents Manuel from having to make such a decision of the 46-year old but at least Lidge got some time in the sun. We should all take stock in the fact that this team’s accomplishments may well not have come about without the leadership of one of the classiest men in baseball.

The next 4 days present somewhat of a dilemma for Manuel. On one hand, jockeying for seeding position against the other 3 playoff teams could result in favorable matchups/home field. But with the Phillies desperately in need of some rest and lots of work to do on the bullpen, this time is better spent working out the kinks. So expect to see a lot of Adam Tracy and Eric Bruntlett this weekend. I can stand to miss Utley and Ibanez for a few games if it means they’re fresh next week at this time, when it counts.

There are some voices of hysteria being heard around these parts talking talk of a Phillies’ collapse. Despite the fact they’ve gone 5-5 in their last 10 games folks are nervous and thinking that they might just be playing themselves out of a playoff spot. Despite the virtually insurmountable 5-game lead they hold on the Braves with 7 games to play, unstable clowns are worrying about the Phillies losing their playoff spot. Well, let me let the numbers do the talking.

Here are the records through the last 10 games of the 8 teams in both leagues that would be going to the playoffs if the season ended right now: Yankees 7-3, Detroit 5-5, Angels 5-5, Red Sox 5-5, Phillies 5-5, Cardinals 5-5, Dodgers 6-4, Rockies 6-4. As you can see, the Phillies are hardly in a nosedive as compared to the recent play of their postseason colleagues. Of course, Atlanta is 8-2 in its last 10 but aside from being 5 games back in the division, they’re also 2 back in the loss column to the Rockies. Still worried about the Braves? Let the number below assuage your fears.

99.9. That’s the percentage likeliness as of today that the Phillies will make the postseason according to coolstandings.com which simulates the Major League season 10,000 times every day for each team in baseball. See, they might not be going lights-out right now but you have to remember that the 162 game season is comprised of 162 games. As boring as it is, the old adage that games in May are as important as games in September is true.

So take that 1 tenth of a percent and put it in the trash. The Phillies are a statistical lock.

We have the 700level.com to thank for this picture of a pre-facial pubescent Jayson Werth. Nowadays he’s armed with a mean landing strip on his chin. I don’t know, I guess he thinks it looks good. In any event, Werth’s 34th homer of the year was of the 4-bag variety last night as he and Joe Blanton (6 scoreless innings) propelled the Phils to a 6-1 victory over the hapless embarrassment that is the Washington Nationals. The Phillies’ magic number is now 11 with 18 games to play.

We’ve all heard it before: the Phillies are an all-or-nothing team, meaning their offense is predicated on the long ball. Traditionally this is not the way that successful playoff teams win largely because their opponents in the playoffs trot-out higher quality pitching than the average seasonal opponent. Whether this holds true this postseason is anyone’s guess. In a season when the 5 teams that comprise the N.L. pennant chase (Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers, Rockies and Giants) have starting pitching better than most years’ playoffs, the home run ball may be at more of a premium this October.

What is going to matter for the Phillies is their pitching. The mid-season turmoil surrounding Cole Hamels’ sub-par season and the Moyer vs. Pedro storyline seems to have disappeared as every starting pitcher has thrown extremely well of late and it looks like J.A. Happ will be back as he’s slated to start on Friday night against Atlanta. As the bullpen’s well-documented problems go, Chan Ho Park left the game last night after a scoreless 8th with a hamstring problem though J.C. Romero’s much-needed left arm looks like it’ll be back in form for the playoffs. According to espn.com, Romero says he’ll make 5 appearances before the end of the season.

Cole Hamels will go tonight in the final sleeper against Washington. This weekend promises to see a better opponent (as least in the pitching department) as the Phils go to Atlanta for 3. Their bats will be tested by Tim Hudson, Javier Vasquez and Tommy Hanson which should provide for a few games more similar to a playoff series than the last 3 outings against the team from Chinese Taipei. The playoffs are right around the corner and assuming the Phillies win tonight against the Nationals, they will have taken 8 of their last 10. Playing well going in is key, and it looks like the Phillies should have some momentum heading into the home stretch

• How much longer do we have to entertain the idea that Brett Myers is an integral part of this team? Everyone seems willing to cut him slack when he’s acting like a Northern Floridian (wife beating, rednecking, bar brawling) but the thing that amazes me is how people seem to always think he’s going to be the answer to the Phillies’ pitching woes. For a guy with a career ERA of 4.39 (4.43 in the playoffs), he’s a pitcher I’d just assume let drift off to sea quietly.
• Remember all that talk about what a lock the Phillies are to win the N.L. East? Well, according to the coolstandings.com season simulation, of current division leaders, only Detroit is less of a lock to win their division than the Phillies. The simulation also shows that the Phillies rank 5 out of 6 (with the Tigers last again) among current division leaders’ likeliness to make the playoffs altogether.
• For all the fanfare surrounding Pedro Martinez’s start against the Cubs last Wednesday (7 hits, 5 IP, 3 ER), he offered little more than a Jamie Moyer start. The big knock against Moyer has been his inability to go late into games; this is exactly the same m.o. Pedro has (remember how Grady Little’s decision to keep a tired Pedro in too long in Game 7 cost Boston the 2003 ALCS, and Little his job?). Here’s to hoping his performance tonight against Jon Garland and the D-Backs tonight shows some improvement.
• For the first time in the past 4 seasons, Ryan Howard is not leading the National League in any significant category (including strikeouts, though he’s on pace to K 199 times this year, matching his career high from 2007). The good news: in the past 2 series (6 games against the Cubs and Braves), Howard is hitting .381 with 4 home runs in 24 at-bats with only 5 strikeouts. And he also has a triple on his card during this stretch, helping to give him an unwordly 1.548 OPS.

The margin for error in Major League Baseball is pretty small. The difference between good teams and bad teams, between making the playoffs or not; often it’s simply a matter of inches, as the old cliche goes. Of course, the most even number of all is .500, a number both mediocre as a reflection of a team’s winning percentage and unattainable as an individual’s batting average.

As you might expect, there’s a lot of evenness as this number applies to the standings. Of the 3o Major League teams, exactly 16 teams currently have records better than .500 (a better-than-.500 number of teams, but only by the slightest of margins). Not surprisingly, 8 of these teams play in the N.L. and 8 of them are A.L. teams (the N.L. does have two more teams than the A.L).

As it applies to the Phillies, they are 25-24 this season against teams better than .500 (better than .500 in this category by the slightest of margins) and as you might expect, they are far better against teams under .500 (34-20). If you include their most recent series against the San Francisco Giants, they Phillies are in the midst of a 16-game stretch against teams over .500. Needless to say, their 1-3 start is under .500 but no matter, their next twelve games against the Rockies, Marlins, Cubs and Braves (all over .500) are (you guessed it) an exact .500 split between playing at home and on the road.

As for individuals, in the past 10 days the best batting average in the Majors (based on 45 plate appearances) belongs to Matt Holliday (.526). In a convenient twist of .500 fate, he was traded to the Cardinals who are the only team in baseball with a home or road record of exactly .500 (27-27 on the road).

As I’m writing this, Jimmy Rollins has hit his 10th home run of the season today against the Cardinals. His homer came as one of four 2-run shots hit by the Phillies. This outburst marks the second day in a row the Phillies have hit four 2-run homers.

On July 1 the Phillies were beaten 11-1 by the Braves, putting them into a tie for 1st in the N.L. East. The first day of July also marks the lowest Rollins’ average had fallen since May 25. While the Phillies lost 5-2 at Atlanta on the 2nd, Jimmy Rollins went 2-4 and his average jumped .004 points to .209.

Since that Atlanta series, Rollins has hit .346, has an OBP of .426, driven in 16 runs, hit 10 doubles and slugged .605 giving him an OPS of 1.030. To put Rollins hot streak in perspective, his full-season projections based on production during this stretch looks like this: 85 doubles, 9 triples, 26 HR, 51 stolen bases, 136 RBI and most importantly for a leadoff hitter, 162 runs scored which means Rollins would be scoring a run, on average, every game.

It seems especially worthy of note to point-out Rollins’ leadoff successes of late on a weekend when Ricky Henderson, one of the great leadoff men of all time, is inducted into the Hall of Fame. While Rollins may not be quite on Henderson’s level, his production throughout the month of July has been amazing and it goes directly to the most important stat of all: during his hot streak, the Phillies have gone 16-3. The lesson in all this is pretty simple, but incredibly true: when the leadoff man scores, the team wins.