After watching last night’s pathetic 3-hit performance by the Phillies, I couldn’t help but wonder who’s responsible for half the lineup being triple-A caliber players. Greg Dobbs, Ross Gload, Wilson Valdez. In fairness, this team is dealing with some injuries right now but watching the likes of Dane Sardinia is becoming hard to impossible.

While a decimated farm system may be adding to the Phils’ inability to replace Utley, Polanco and Ruiz, it is the GM of the team that has made the minor league system the bare cupboard it is. He’s also the one responsible for the fact that the best pitcher in the American League is no longer a Phillie. And he’s the one saddling the team with Raul Ibanez’s absurd contract for an octogenarian hitting under .250. He’s the guy responsible for Ryan Howard’s wildly over-market contract and its impact on the team’s impending unwillingness to resign Jayson Werth. Ruben Amaro is responsible for the Phillies’ awful bullpen, choosing to leverage the future of the team on Roy Halladay’s right shoulder while doing nothing to address an aging bullpen that trots out Mike Zagurski in extra innings. So other than the signing of Placido Polanco as a tally in the “good move” column, I ask: what has Amaro done for this team and if he were the GM of the Red Sox or Yankees, is there any way he’d still have a job?

As JGT pointed out earlier in the day, Dan Haren is rumored to be on the Phillies’ wishlist. Haren is struggling this season in Arizona and has the poor record to show for it: 7-6 with a 4.56 ERA (for as mediocre as that W-L record is, it has fewer demerits than Roy Halladay’s). Goodtimes seemed to shrug-off the huge upside of landing Haren by saying he’d be an “upgrade from (Kyle) Kendrick.” He certainly would, but to describe Haren as a better fit in the 5-spot than Kendrick is to ignore the fact that Haren has been one of baseball’s better pitchers over his 8-year career.

As far as how he’d fit in with the Phillies, Haren’s career numbers make him a rival to steal the #2 spot from Cole Hamels. Haren has a marginally-better career ERA to Hamels (3.69-3.71), a better strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.9-3.5) and a slightly better WHIP (1.19-1.193). That’s several blocks from the Kyle Kendrick neighborhood.

While Hamels’ career winning percentage is higher (.574-.558), that’s probably more a product of playing the majority of his career on a playoff-caliber team whereas Haren’s spent the past six years in Oakland and Arizona. And for whatever it’s worth, Haren’s highest finish in Cy Young voting was 5th and that was last year. Hamels’ best finish in CY voting was 6th in 2007. To boot, Haren has pitched in 3 All-Star games to Hamels’ 1.

I don’t bring this up to disparage Cole Hamels, rather to point out how good Haren is. For a guy buried in relative obscurity in Arizona, his addition to the Phils’ rotation would make their top-3 competitive with the top-heavy rotations in Atlanta, St. Louis and San Francisco. Keep in mind that Haren has a better career WHIP and a higher strikeout-to-walk ratio than the Phils’ staff ace, Roy Halladay.

I don’t know what the Phillies would have to offer Arizona in trade; the D-Backs seem to always be in rebuilding mode so they’d presumably want young talent and we know what that cupboard looks like around here. Haren is under contract for another 2 seasons after 2010 (plus a 2013 club option) and he’ll average between $12.75 and $15.5 million the next few years. That’s a big price tag for a Phillies team that wasn’t willing to spend $9 million on Cliff Lee.

But if Ruben Amaro wants to erase his collosal, blunder-filled offseason (and help people forget about the fact Chase Utley is probably gone until September), pursuing Haren wouldn’t be a bad place to start. This kind of midseason move is what a 2-time defending N.L. pennant winner embroiled in a bitter division race should do. I know Jamie Moyer has been very good this season and that Haren’s isn’t cheap. But I’d rather see him on the mound in September and October.

News of Chase Utley’s arrival on the 15-day DL is hardly being received warmly by Phillies fans. To add insult to injury, Placido Polanco will be on the same list as Utley. This means that the Phillies now have 7 players on the DL (Utley, Polanco, Antonio Bastardo, Chad Durbin, J.A. Happ, Ryan Madson and Carlos Ruiz). Making matters worse is the Ruben-Amaro-talent-free-zone (aka the Phils minor league system) which will produce the two replacements for the holes generated by Utley’s and Polanco’s injuries: Greg Dobbs and Brian Bocock (currently hitting .179).

Just about simultaneously, the Boston Red Sox found out they’ll lose their MVP 2nd baseman, Dustin Pedroia, for weeks with a broken foot. Both the Red Sox and Phillies are mired in division battles involving more than 2 teams. And both Utley and Pedroia have won a World Series. So let’s take a moment and see how the Sox’ and Phillies’ heart-and-soul 2nd basemen stack up against each other.

Utley has played 8 Major League seasons to Pedroia’s 5. Utley’s career average is .294 whereas Pedroia’s is .305. Utley’s career OBP is .380 and Pedroia’s is .370 while Utley’s OPS is .898 to Pedroia’s .831. Utley averages 105 RBI per season to Pedroia’s 74 and has almost twice as many home runs as Pedroia, averaging 29 to the diminutive Pedroia’s 16. Both average 110 runs per season. Utley averages 39 doubles to Pedroia’s 49 and Chase averages 15 stolen bases to Dustin’s 16. So with the exception of average and doubles being in Pedroia’s favor and home runs and RBIs in Utley’s, they’re pretty similar hitters in terms of the numbers.

In the field, both are terrific. Utley’s career fielding percentage at 2nd base is .981. As terrific as that is, Pedroia’s is even better at .991. Utley aveages 10.6 errors per season with Pedroia averaging an infinitesimal 4.6 errors each year. And Utley will turn, on average, 73 double plays each year to Pedroia’s 68. So both are superlative in the field as well as at the plate, with Pedroia getting the slight edge statistically on the defensive side.

This season, of course, Robinson Cano of the Yankees is the class of MLB 2nd basemen. He’s hitting .359 with 15 home runs and 55 RBI in 75 games. And his fielding percentage is an unworldy .997. To add to his gaudy numbers, Cano has only committed one error in 2010.

But Cano isn’t injured like Pedroia and Utley are. And while he’s in the thick of a deep divisional race too, Utley and Pedroia are the leaders on their respective teams. Unfortunately for Boston, Pedroia figures to be out significantly longer than Utley will. Either way, the Red Sox and Phillies fates may likely be decided by the way their teams are able to hold down the fort while their leaders are out.

The schedule is sure toughening-up for the Phillies. After an opening 3 games against High-A Washington, they’ll turn their attention this evening to Double-A Houston before returning to the Aruban Winter League to face the Nationals for three more next week. With competition like this it kind of makes you feel like Cliff Lee won’t be missed.

Actually, of course, there will be 4 or 5 series this season where the Phillies will have to show up. Most of those series will be against AL teams, which is good because that will give us some insight as to whether this team can win a series with a Lee-less rotation. Before we take a look at how the Phils match up without Lee, let’s just be perfectly honest about one thing: Cliff Lee’s absence will have no bearing on the outcome of the N.L. East race; the Phillies will win this division.

Where Lee’s absence will matter is in the playoffs. I see 4 potential playoff opponents whose top-3 starters are clearly superior to the Phillies (Halladay, Hamels and Blaton) and they are (in no particular order):

• Yankees with Sabathia, Burnett and Pettitte
• Red Sox with Beckett, Lester and Lackey (adjust for Dice-K and Bucholtz if needed)
• San Francisco with Lincecum, Cain and Zito
• St. Louis with Carpenter, Wainwright and Lohse

Now, before you get all homer on me and argue that Kyle Lohse and Barry Zito are no better than Joe Blanton (which they may or may not be) keep in mind that Matt Cain and Adam Wainwright are demonstrably better than Cole Hamels. In the case of the Yankees, their top-3 have already proven themselves superior. And in Boston’s case, you could anchor the 3-spot with 3 different guys. But in both NL teams’ cases, it really comes down to the #2 guys making the difference. That is where Cliff Lee would have come in.

A lot can happen between Game #4 and Game #163. Cole Hamels could have a career year, Matt Cain could tear his ACL…who knows. But as it stands, let’s not worry too much any more about the obvious mistake Amaro made by trading Cliff Lee until the impact of that trade will really be felt. In the meantime, enjoy the season.

The Atlanta Braves are a team that could give the Phillies a lot of trouble this season. Because they’re still a work in progress (and because the Phillies have won 2 consecutive pennants), we believe it would be irresponsible to expect they’ll actually win the division this year. But the Braves have two-highly touted entities working in their favor this season: their starting rotation and all-world prospect, Jason Heyward.

Let’s start with the rotation, which Paul Hagen of the Daily News believes is the best in the division. Veteran Tim Hudson will get the ball for opening day and despite a 2009 season where he only appeared in 7 games, his career record is 148-78 with a 3.49 ERA. His has won the same number of games as Phillies ace, Roy Halladay (with only 2 more losses) and his ERA is only .06 worse than Doc’s. Directly matching-up starting pitchers doesn’t mean much in the regular season but Hudson’s career numbers (including a 20-win season) indicate that he’s capable of being very productive for Atlanta.

Following Hanson in the rotation are Tommy Hudson and Jair Jurrjens. Hanson’s strong rookie season saw him compile incredible numbers for a 22-year old: 11-4 with a sub-3 ERA (2.89) and a SO-BB ratio of almost 3-1. While a sophomore slump is possible, his promise brings quite a bit to the Braves #2 spot. As for Jair Jurrjens, the 24-year old has a 30-21 career record with a 3.21 ERA. For a guy in the #3 spot, he’ll be expected to improve upon his 13 and 14-win seasons in 2008 and ’09. The Braves’ top-3 guys’ career win/loss records are collectively 4% better than the Phillies top-3 pitchers which shows Atlanta has an excellent core.

The 4th and 5th starters for the Braves are Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami. The 36-year old Lowe has a solid winning percentage of .547 and has a World Series title under his belt (’04 Red Sox) as well as a no-hitter to his name. While he can be wildly inconsistent (as he was for the Dodgers in ’05 and ’07), few teams would be put-out by having a guy like him in the 4th spot. As for Kawakami, the 34-year old pitched poorly for the Braves last year, going 7-12 with a 3.86 ERA. A 2-1 SO-BB ratio looks good but he’s still a question mark in the final rotation spot.

And then there’s Jason Heyward. To listen to Baseball America or Baseball Today, you’d think he was the 2nd coming of Willie Mays (hence his nickname, the “J-Hey Kid”). Heyward is a five-tooler projected to be a consistent 30 HR guy. Coming into 2009 Baseball America had him rated as the #5 overall prospect. At 6′-4” and 245 lbs., he’s got the frame to go deep and a .318 minor league average to go along with his power potential. Heyward is only 20 and he’s already been named to the Braves opening day roster. The Braves’ expectations are high (as are Keith Law’s and Jonathan Mayo of mlb.com; both have him as the #1 prospect in baseball this season). While Heyward probably won’t be single-handedly winning a division title for Atlanta this year, his exceptional talent will most likely translate to an increase in production over last season from his spot in the lineup.

As for the rest of the Braves team, Paul Hagen has their bullpen ranked 2nd in the division behind the Mets, their infield ranked 3rd behind the Phillies and Marlins and their outfield ranked 4th, one spot above the Nationals. Their bench is ranked 4th by the Daily News writer and they come in 2nd behind the Phillies in intangibles. Will this be the Braves’ year? Probably not, but their upside means a lot more to be concerned about for the Phillies.

The NHL Winter Classic will be played tomorrow at Fenway Park in Boston between your Flyers and their Bruins. Given the Flyers woes, this could be the most exciting game they play in the first half of 2010. The first Classic featured 900,000 people in Orchard Park, New York watching the Sabres and Penguins go to a shootout. That game ended on a goal by S. Crosby which resembled Brett Favre’s cowtowing to Michael Strahan’s sack record (yeah, the goal was scripted so back off, Pens fans). Last year’s game featured Wrigley Field, the Red Wings, the Blackhawks and plump kielbasas.

Ignorant donkeys who don’t get hockey because they grew up in suburban Atlanta may not be watching tomorrow, but we certainly will be. Assuming the ice doesn’t turn into a pond (questionable weather is in the forecast), it should be a lot of fun. And if you’ll entertain this silly prognostication for a moment: Fenway Park will be the scene of the baseball teams from both towns playing for the World Series in October. So there’s a little foreshadowing in the works. Let’s hope the Flyers can get the Phillies off on the right foot with a win.

Let me start by saying that I will certainly not be unhappy in any way with Roy Halladay as the Phillies’ ace. I argued extensively last season for the Phils to make a move to get him and he is one of the top-5 pitchers in baseball, perhaps made even better in the short run by being a veteran of baseball’s best division. And now Halladay will land in the N.L. which by recent experience should mean he’ll get even more of a boost. From a performance perspective, Halladay probably becomes the best pitcher in the National League going into 2010.

But there are questions surrounding this move and its timing that can’t be ignored. First and foremost is the issue of what the Phillies have given up to acquire Halladay. Because Cliff Lee is gone as a result of this trade, the Phillies are simply replacing one ace with another. Let’s start with the trade that rented Cliff Lee for 12 starts to close out the 2009 season (and 4 brilliant playoff starts). According to mlb.com the Phillies will part with previously “untouchable” top pitching prospect, Kyle Drabek, as well as outfielder Michael Taylor and catcher Travis d’Arnaud. Combine that with the players they sent to Cleveland in the Lee deal (pitchers Jason Knapp and Carlos Carrasco, catcher Lou Marson and infielder Jason Donald) and you have a pretty high price paid for what amounts to be one pitcher.

In fairness, prospects are exactly that: an unknown commodity. But emptying close to your entire minor league tank to fill one rotation spot seems to be a bold gamble, even moreso when you consider the fact that Roy Halladay is negligably better than Cliff Lee. To boot, Roy Halladay has pitched 4 more seasons than Cliff Lee and has pitched exactly 850 innings more than Lee, meaning his treads are a lot more worn than Lee’s.

Read the rest of this entry »

Johnny Goodtimes did all of our sentiments a service with his great piece on how things feel today and how they’ll be remembered going forward. The only thing I can add to that is the expression of a sense of pride I have in how well this team performed and how gracious and classy Philly has been in defeat. When you think about it objectively, the odds of winning a World Series are never good, no matter how strong a team is on paper. This Phillies team not only won 1, but they returned to the big stage and showed not only how good they have been but how promising they are for the years to come.

The odds for next year’s World Series champion are out. The Phillies stand at 10-1. In shocking fashion the yearly ritual, the Yankees and Red Sox are the favorites to win at 3-1 and 7-1, respectively. Like the Phillies the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim of Orange County of California are listed at 10-1 as are the Cardinals, the other N.L. team in the top-5. Other N.L. aspirants are the Dodgers (12-1), the Cubs (15-1), the Rockies (20-1) and the Braves (20-1). And in case you were wondering, the Mets are listed at 15-1.

So our favorite sport here at iSportacus is in hibernation for the next 3 months which gives us time to refocus on a very good Flyers team, an Eagles team that is as inconsistent as my putter and a Sixers team which we’re forced to cover periodically. Penn State football should get a boost here in the coming weeks; they have a huge game at home this Saturday against Ohio State in which they’re favored by 3.5. Because they have a loss to Iowa on their card and the Hawkeyes are undefeated, hopes for a trip to the Rose Bowl are distant but hey, they could finish their season with 1 loss which is pretty damned good. And finally, look for a little Temple football coverage. Quietly, they’ve won 6 straight and are bowl eligible for the first time in a long time.

It’s been a great baseball season. Until the proverbial pitchers-and-catchers date, let’s try and enjoy the bounty of other quality sports taking place around Philly.

The New York Post is doing its part to stir the pot. In today’s paper, the Post announces that Pedro Martinez will start Game 2 of the World Series at Yankee Stadium and they title the story “Twos Your Daddy.” That news is dressed in memories of Pedro’s days with the Red Sox when he sheepishly admitted that the Yankees were in fact his daddy.

Also, WIP and thefightins.com are reporting that the cover of today’s Post is adorned with a picture of Shane Victorino in a cheerleader’s outfit. The headline reads “Gotham Trembles: The Frillies are coming to town.”

Still unsatisfied with its inability to stir enough negative energy in the Phillies’ direction, the Post gives its readers “8 reasons NYC Kicks Philly’s Ass” with the subheader “Their fans are second rate and so is their city.” And to be sure they cover all the bases, the Post opines that “the Phanatic is a Pain in the Mascot.”

The Post quotes some nincompoop man-on-the-street as saying “Philly fans are a bunch of whiners and should learn how to dress. They should try reading GQ.” As far as I can tell, Yankees fans either dress like sophomores at Penn or blinged-out clowns with their caps at a 30 degree tilt. I’d like to see a comparison of the sartorial failures of Yankees fans vs. Mets fans. We know the preferred costume of the Mets fan: white sneakers, tube socks, jeans shorts and neck hair. Is that better or worse than the Yankees fan uniform which is just a facsimile of whatever hip hop video is currently in vogue?

I will give this to the Post: their headline after Tupac got shot: “It’s a Rap.”

There are some voices of hysteria being heard around these parts talking talk of a Phillies’ collapse. Despite the fact they’ve gone 5-5 in their last 10 games folks are nervous and thinking that they might just be playing themselves out of a playoff spot. Despite the virtually insurmountable 5-game lead they hold on the Braves with 7 games to play, unstable clowns are worrying about the Phillies losing their playoff spot. Well, let me let the numbers do the talking.

Here are the records through the last 10 games of the 8 teams in both leagues that would be going to the playoffs if the season ended right now: Yankees 7-3, Detroit 5-5, Angels 5-5, Red Sox 5-5, Phillies 5-5, Cardinals 5-5, Dodgers 6-4, Rockies 6-4. As you can see, the Phillies are hardly in a nosedive as compared to the recent play of their postseason colleagues. Of course, Atlanta is 8-2 in its last 10 but aside from being 5 games back in the division, they’re also 2 back in the loss column to the Rockies. Still worried about the Braves? Let the number below assuage your fears.

99.9. That’s the percentage likeliness as of today that the Phillies will make the postseason according to coolstandings.com which simulates the Major League season 10,000 times every day for each team in baseball. See, they might not be going lights-out right now but you have to remember that the 162 game season is comprised of 162 games. As boring as it is, the old adage that games in May are as important as games in September is true.

So take that 1 tenth of a percent and put it in the trash. The Phillies are a statistical lock.