Despite Brad Lidge’s best efforts, the Phillies have won 4 games in a row. Sunday’s win completed a 4-game sweep at Citizens Bank Park against a Colorado team that does not play well on the road. Of all the teams in baseball with winning records, only the Detroit Tigers have fewer road wins (16) than the Rockies (20). And Brad Lidge recorded two saves in his last couple outings but in doing so he gave up 4 hits, 4 walks, and 2 earned runs on 64 pitches in two innings. This Phillies team is remarkably inconsistent, remarkably flawed and yet they find themselves only 3 games out of the N.L. wild card spot.

Marc Stein from the TMI blog took note of the Phillies sweep of the Rockies and came up with some interesting stuff. The Phillies have won 8 straight home games, their longest home winning streak since 1991. Their staff ERA during this home winning streak has been a remarkable 2.10 and has featured three shutouts. With the Diamondbacks coming to town for a 3-game set, the Phillies have a great chance to put a significant stretch of home wins together and get themselves right back into the thick of things.

Bernard Fernandez’s piece in today’s Daily News attempts to paint the picture that the Phillies bullpen is in healthy condition. He centers his article on J.C. Romero’s opinion that “we have some power arms in the bullpen.” The theme seems to be that the Phils are equipped to pitch well out of the pen because they (theoretically) have guys who should bring the heat more than they have in years past.

He cites Ryan Madson as an example, an idiotic assertion because Madson isn’t going to be pitching at all for the next 60 days. Fernandez also notes that Brad Lidge “again seems to have that 2008 zip on the hard stuff.” Forgive me if I’m reserving judgment on Lidge until he pitches at least 4 innings this season. And Fernandez even mentions how Danys Baez has a “plus fastball,” ignoring his “plus-sized” ERA of 6.92.

To be fair, there has been one bullpen brightspot in the person of Jose Contreras, who’s posted a sub-1.00 ERA and has a 15-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Projecting similar numbers over the course of an entire season for the 38-year old, however, seems a bit bold.

Fernandez goes on to cite the Phillies NL-leading 1.58 ERA for the month of May as evidence of their quality, going as far as to use the word “dominant” in equating the pen’s form. That ERA is incredibly misleading however, for two reasons. The first is the fact that the month of May represents only 9 games or 29% of the season. The real number that should be noted is 3.95, the ERA of the Phillies bullpen for the entire season (good for 9th in the National League). Furthermore, Phillies relievers have had relatively little pressure in May: the Phils margin of victory over their 9 games in May is better than 3 runs per game (on average) meaning the bullpen isn’t exactly finding itself inserted into tight spots.

The other reason the May ERA is misleading is the fact that the bullpen has only had to pitch 17.1 innings all month, meaning fewer than 2 innings per game. This is due to the fact that the starting pitching has been terrific and has pitched late into games. Of the Phillies 7 wins in May, only one has seen a starter go fewer than 6 innings (Cole Hamels pitched 5 against the Braves yesterday.)  And even in their two May losses, the Phillies got 6.2 and 6 innings from Joe Blanton. In short, the starters are averaging better than 7 innings per start in May, meaning the bullpen hasn’t really had a chance to screw up.

The point of this all is not to rip the team, but to draw attention to the deceptive and misleading assertion that the Phillies bullpen is ok. It’s a work in progress and it does seem to be getting a little better (helped immensely by the starting pitching and the offense). But before we start the inevitable Philly love fest surrounding short term success (or at least the perception of it) let’s let realism substitute for hopefulness when talking about the bullpen.

Things could not be any worse for the Phillies’ bullpen than they already were coming into the season. Their closer, Brad Lidge, was coming off an historically-bad 2009. J.C. Romero has been in some kind of interminable injury limbo. And the best Ruben Amaro could offer in the offseason was the acquisitions of Danys Baez and Jose Contreras. Fast forward to now: Brad Lidge has returned and shown himself to be as questionable as ever. In 1.1 innings pitched this season, Lidge has compiled a 2.25 WHIP and an ERA of 6.75.

No matter. Amaro and the Phillies’ pitching-challenged brain trust have had their backup plan in the works for a while. No, we’re not talking about an aggressive free agent signing during the winter. We’re talking about Ryan Madson, a guy who’s appeared in 9 games this season and has (yes, this is possible) a worse ERA than Lidge: 7.00. Madson’s season highlight is blowing a 3-run, 9th inning lead against Atlanta and in the process spoiling a desperately-need great start from Kyle Kendrick. The silver lining in all this is that Inquirer writer, Matt Gelb, is reporting that Madson will miss “significant” time due to a broken right toe sustained when he kicked a chair out of frustration in the San Francisco visitors’ locker room. As a result Jose Contreras will assume the closing duties.

The blame for the bullpen’s amateurish incompetence rests solely on the shoulders of Ruben Amaro. He has known all along that even with a competent bullpen like the one the Phillies fielded in 2008, his manager is incapable of using them properly. The only reason the Phils weren’t exposed during that stretch was the unworldly perfection of Brad Lidge at the back end. But with questions of age and declining talent going forward, the Phillies have done nothing to improve the part of their team that is as glaring as a strawberry-sized lip herpe.

While Amaro has spent the better part of the last calendar year pulling his pants down to show the world what a potentate he is, his two big deals have done nothing to improve this team. Roy Halladay is a great pitcher, but the role that he occupies on this team is something they already had covered in the person of Cliff Lee. And Ryan Howard would have been here anyway had he not been resigned to a mammoth contract.

So when the Phillies line up tonight against the N.L’s. best team, Amaro can reflect on the fact that the team they’ll face has a combined ERA of 2.52, good for best in the league. While names like Jaime Garcia (the rookie who stoned the Phillies last night) may not shake down the thunder, the Phillies may take notice of Adam Wainwright, who will start tonight with his 2.13 ERA. Wainwright has recorded quality starts in 23 of his last 24 outings and the Cardinals as a team have gone 12 starts where their starters have gone at least six innings and not recorded more than 3 earned runs.

That mastery of the starting rotation means the Cards’ bullpen is less of a factor, something that gives them a decided advantage over their opponents (they’ve won 8 of their last 9). With yet another question mark taking the hill for the Phillies tonight in Cole Hamels, the tipping point of the bullpen’s entry into the game is likely to be earlier than later. And that, Mr. Amaro, is not a good thing.

Kyle Kendrick’s career may have been ruined last night. After out-pitching Jamie Moyer in spring training, Kendrick was relegated to bullpen duty to start the 2010 campaign. Joe Blanton’s abdominal injury forced Kendrick into the starting rotation and after two starts he was not looking good, amassing an ERA of 17.47. So needless to say, last night’s start against the Braves was probably a chance for him to right his ship and begin to show the organization that keeping him around makes sense.

But in the end it was the organization that let Kendrick down. All he did last night was pitch 8 complete innings, allowing no runs and giving up 4 hits and 2 walks. Those are numbers that you’d expect from Roy Halladay, not the 5th-and-a-half starter. Kendrick did his part and fans were probably feeling good about his teammates’ ability to get three outs and nail down the win with a 3-run lead going into the 9th.

Sure as turnips fall off trucks, however, Ryan Madson came in to close the game and promptly gave up consecutive home runs in to Jason Heyward and Troy Glaus. Not to be outdone, medieval retread Jose Contreras gave up the game-winning dinger to Nate McLouth in the 10th. The grand irony of watching the Phillies bullpen collapse was the fact that Billy Wagner pitched a perfect 10th inning for the Braves and got the win.

In the offseason when Ruben Amaro was trying to show the world he could imprint his name on a World Series winner, every ounce of energy was poured into signing Roy Halladay. For good measure, Amaro added Placido Polanco so that the Phillies could improve upon their already ostentatious offensive numbers. But in a series of non-moves that reeked of ignorance, Amaro did nothing to improve the one area of the team that has been awful for the past two years: the bullpen.

Had it not been for Brad Lidge’s unworldly perfect season in 2008, that team may well have not won the World Series because of how shaky the pen was (excepting Lidge, of course). And last year’s bullpen was downright awful. So what should the G.M. do as a follow up? Well, for starters lets shitcan our best long reliever, Chan Ho Park. Then let’s go into the season with a closer who blew 11 saves last year, a set-up guy in J.C. Romero who hasn’t seen rubber in ages and a few 54th-round fantasy baseball draft scrubs as offseason pickups.

If this team does not win the N.L. East, it will be because of its bullpen. Plain and simple. It is the part of this team that has been bad for multiple seasons and Amaro’s inability to address it with anything other than Danys Baez and Jose Contreras is a sign of either ignorance of an unhealthy obsession with putting all his eggs in the Halladay basket. So going forward, let’s hope Kyle Kendrick and the rest of the rotation can expect a little more help from organization than they got last night.

It’s been a long time since things have gone right for Brad Lidge. Yesterday’s cortisone shot to his surgically-repaired right elbow is no exception. Lidge had surgery on his knee and throwing elbow this offseason though Phillies team physician, Michael Ciccoti, says that the cortisone shot (given to help with soreness) has nothing to do with the surgery. So I guess that’s a sign that the surgery hadn’t gone wrong. Or maybe it’s a sign of yet another problem for his elbow. Who knows.

Either way, Lidge won’t be ready until at least mid-April, which means Ryan Madson will assume the closer’s role until then. And J.C. Romero remains MIA for health reasons. With the memory of Lidge’s epic failures in 2009 still fresh in our minds, we have to look at the bullpen as this team’s achilles heel. The Phillies seemed resistant to the idea of parting ways with Lidge last year; if he has another season where he blows anywhere near 11 games, there’s a very real possibility this team will not win a much improved N.L. East.

You may remember Mark Buerhle’s perfect game last season. You may also remember that iSportacus roving reporter, Koob, was at that game. The 18th perfect game in MLB history would not have happened without that theatrical catch by DeWayne Wise in the top of the ninth inning (he was inserted into the game in that inning by Ozzie Guillen as a defensive substitution).

What you may not know is that Wise is now a Phillie. He signed with the club back in November and is likely to be in Lehigh Valley this season, though an injury or two to the big club’s outfielders could see Wise in a Phillies uniform at some point this season. And with his history of robbing hitters of home runs in mind, this may be music to Brad Lidge’s ears.

Much is being made of the fact that Jayson Werth is in the last year of his contract with the Phillies. Werth is due $7.5 million this year, which will make him the 7th-highest player on a team that has a $138 million payroll for the 2010 season. Ruben Amaro has made a lot of noise about the fact that this team is not the New York Yankees, presumably meaning that the Phillies cannot afford to have more than 4 or 5 players making more than $15 million per season. How this relates to their ability to resign Werth is unclear at this point, so let’s take a look at some of the Phillies’ payroll commitments for the near future.

In the short term, the six Phillies who will make more money than Werth this season are Ryan Howard ($19 million), Roy Halladay ($15.75), Chase Utley ($15.29), Raul Ibanez ($12.17), Brad Lidge ($12) and Jimmy Rollins ($8.5). All six of these players are under contract for the 2011 season and only two of them, Howard and Halladay, are due raises in ’11 ($1 million and $4.25, respectively). This means that the Phillies are committed for about $88 million in 2011 for their top players and $133 million altogether.

Going a step further, Raul Ibanez’s advanced age and free agent status makes him a certain subtraction from the Phils’ payroll in 2012. Brad Lidge (who knows what he’ll be like in 2 years) is only due $1.5 million in 2012. Utley and Halladay are both under contract through the 2013 season so Jimmy Rollins will have to be renegotiated (2012 is the last year of his deal). With the bulk of the Phillies minor league talent existing in the form of outfielders, the need for Werth’s services past the 2011 season are questionable, which may make parting ways with him palatable for Amaro and the organization. But that all boils down to how much money Werth can expect from suitors in the free agency market.

Obviously, Ruben Amaro is better in touch with the mechanics of free agency than we are, so let’s just do a cursory look at what Werth, a career .265 hitter, can expect in the form of a raise. Statistically, Werth is coming off his most impressive season. He hit 50% more home runs in 2009 than in his next-most productive season (24 in 2008). He’s never tallied more than 100 RBI (max was 99 last season) and he’s never had an OPS better than .879. His career strikeout-to-walk ratio isn’t good (just about 1 BB for every 2 Ks) and while Werth does have good range in right field, his speed hasn’t translated that well to his stolen base totals: his best seasons were ’08 and ’09 where he stole 20 bases each season. For his career, he steals a base about once in every nine games he plays.

Let’s take Jason Bay’s signing by the Mets as a comparison. Bay’s contract will pay him $54.5 million over the next 4 years, plus a $17 million club option for 2014, meaning he’ll average about $13.63 million in his guaranteed years with the Mets. Considering Werth is making $7.5 million, should he expect a $6 million raise on par with a guy like Bay?

Like Werth, Bay has played 7 Major League seasons. His career average is .280. He hit the same number of home runs as Werth this past season (let’s consider Fenway Park and Citizens Bank Park to be washes in terms of their favorability to power hitters–two of the smallest lots in baseball). Bay has hit twice as many home runs in his career than Werth (185-93). Bay has tallied more than 100 RBI in 4 of his 7 seasons (119 in 2009) and has a career OPS of .896 which is better than Werth’s best single-season OPS. Bay’s SO-BB ratio is about 6% better than Werth’s. While Bay has a career best of 21 stolen bases (exceeding Werth’s best season), that was in 2005 and he only steals a base every 14 games.

We know the Mets are a relatively free-spending team when it comes to free agency. Considering they are spending less than $15 on Jason Bay (who has had a markedly better offensive career than Werth), can we really project that Werth will be able to command a contract that pays him in excess of $15 million per season? And assuming we can’t, how should we take Amaro’s argument that a likely parting with Werth will happen because the Phillies don’t want to overspend, on par with a team like the Yankees?

Jayson Werth is a very good outfielder who is coming off his best season. But it seems unlikely to me that Werth will command the kind of money that will prevent the Phillies from making him a competitive offer in free agency. So if the magic number is $140 million for 2011 and the Phillies are already committed to $133 million (with all the other top players under contract), it will be interesting to see how far over $140 Amaro will be willing to go to resign Werth.

pic via Balls, Sticks and Stuff

The Phillies captured their 3rd-straight N.L. East title last night by beating the Astros virtue of the Braves losing moments before Brad Lidge was brought into the game with 26 Astros’ outs in the book. I thought that move by Charlie Manuel showed what a gentleman he is to make a point on the grand stage of the team’s clinching the division that even its most maligned star will not be thrown on the trash heap. Of course, Jamie Moyer’s season-ending injury prevents Manuel from having to make such a decision of the 46-year old but at least Lidge got some time in the sun. We should all take stock in the fact that this team’s accomplishments may well not have come about without the leadership of one of the classiest men in baseball.

The next 4 days present somewhat of a dilemma for Manuel. On one hand, jockeying for seeding position against the other 3 playoff teams could result in favorable matchups/home field. But with the Phillies desperately in need of some rest and lots of work to do on the bullpen, this time is better spent working out the kinks. So expect to see a lot of Adam Tracy and Eric Bruntlett this weekend. I can stand to miss Utley and Ibanez for a few games if it means they’re fresh next week at this time, when it counts.

Brad Lidge is in the midst of a historic season. The record for most blown saves in a season is 14, held by 5 players, including Bruce Sutter and Rollie Fingers. But that 14 is deceptive as the last guy to do it was Ron Davis in 1984. Back then, relief pitchers usually went 2-3 innings, so there was way more time to blow a save. The “modern” record is 12, set by Ambiorix Burgos of the Kansas City Royals in 2006. He is currently in jail for beating his girlfriend.

I wrote recently about how Charlie should be commended for sticking by Brad. However, think it is obviously time for some straight talk and a change. Brad Lidge has given up 16 hits, 5 walks, and 11 earned runs in his last 8 2/3 innings. That is beyond awful. There is no way he should be on the postseason roster. None. Charlie has tried everything, and everything has failed. I would honestly rather see Jose Mesa recalled and take over the closing role than see Brad trot out there one more time. It’s time to turn the lights out.

Barring a 1964 type collapse, the Phillies are essentially playing out the string, and 2 wins over the Braves this weekend in Atlanta pretty much ended any hopes the Braves had of making a run. So yesterday you probably were watching the Eagles instead of the Phillies. I was too. But I looked at the box score and, surprise surprise, Brad Lidge gave up another run in the bottom of the 9th inning. To show you just how worthless the stat of save is, he has allowed 4 runs in his last three innings…and recorded three saves. It looks like the Phillies are counting on having three run leads throughout the playoffs, as Lidge is incapable of shutting teams down. He has given up 13 hits, 5 walks, one hit batter, and 9 earned runs in his last 8 innings. In other words, over two runners per game are getting on base, and at least one of them is scoring. And as bad as he’s been in this streak, it has hardly affected his ERA at all.

As we watch this juggernaut of a Phillies team (better in every department over last year other than closing and bench hitting) march towards the playoffs, one cannot help but think of Achilles, the Greek hero of the Trojan War. When he was an infant, his mom (Thetis) grabbed him by the ankle and dunked him in the River Styx. Everything the sacred waters touched became invulnerable, but the heel Thetis held him by stayed dry. As an adult, he was indestructible in battle, destroying everyone in his path, running roughshod over overmatched foes, much as the Phillies have in the NL East. But Paris shot for his heel, and when the arrow hit it’s mark, Achilles fell dead.

And so go the mighty Phils into battle, with a lineup seemingly sent to us from the baseball Gods, one that is one World Series win away from being mentioned in the same breath as the deities known as the Big Red Machine and the Murderer’s Row. And yet, the Baseball Gods are lovers of chicanery, and have left one heel frightfully exposed. That heel goes by the name of Brad Lidge, and once the playoffs start, opponents with sharp arrows will know exactly where to aim.