The good news for Phillies fans is that Roy Halladay looked strong in his spring training debut against the Yankees. He pitched 2 innings, gave up no hits and struck out 3. As I’m writing this, Jayson WoolWerth just went down on strikes in the 6th inning. Clearly today’s performances are indicative of the fact that Halladay is going to win 32 games and that Jayson Werth is done.

Also to the amusement of Phillies fans and non-rednecks everywhere, Brett Myers pitched 2 innings and gave up a hit, 2 earned runs and walked 3 in his debut with the Astros. Against the Nationals.

Because Ruben Amaro thinks prospects are more important than winning, we thought we’d get you acquainted with some of them. Pictured above is Tyson Gillies who is one of three players acquired from the Seattle Mariners in exchange for Cliff Lee. Gillies is a 21-year old centerfielder from Vancouver and it must seem cruel to him that he has to toil at spring training for a team he won’t be playing for any time soon while the Olympics are going on in his hometown. The upside at spring training for Gillies is that now that Brett Myers is no longer a Phil, there’s no chance he’ll trade Gillies to Japan for a hot dog eater.

Another interesting thing about Gillies is that he’s legally deaf. That would seem to present little difficulty to a baseball player as really the only situation in the game that requires hearing is being called-off on a fly ball. And being deaf as a professional athlete playing in Philadelphia may actually be an advantage; assuming Gillies makes the big club, imagine the amount of crap his condition will prevent him from hearing from the media and fans in this town.

photo courtesy of weshouldbegms.com

While yesterday was a glorious day to be a Philadelphia sports fans in some ways (Phils win 2 over Mets, Eagles win blowout), there were also dark clouds forming on the horizon (McNabb hurt, Brad Lidge…being Brad Lidge). A day after Ryan Madsen choked against the Mets, allowing David Wright to win the game for New York, Brad Lidge entered with a 5-2 lead and instantly fell to pieces, allowing two runs to score before recording the 3rd out. Needless to say, he’d be facing much tougher batters in St. Louis, LA, or Colorado than he will from a fractured Mets team if the Phils make the playoffs. Incredibly, Madson’s choke job on Saturday gave him the third most blown saves in the majors, with 6. This despite the fact that he’s only had 14 save opportunities! While an excellent 8th inning pitcher, he obviously doesn’t have a closer mentality. Which brings us to fan favorite Brett Myers. Of course, he melted down on Saturday, giving up three runs while recording only one out. So what now? Do you keep plugging away with a two man closer team of Madson and Lidge, despite the fact that they have combined to blow 16 games? Do you take a chance with Myers? And what about the most underrated player on this team this year, Chan Ho Park? Does he deserve a shot? There are a lot of unanswered questions surrounding a team that, outside of the bullpen, is the 2nd best team in baseball besides the Yankees.

Brett Myers was extremely impressive last night. He struck out 5 in two innings for Reading. He now has 9 Ks in 4 innings of work. He also has a much better closer mentality than Lidge has, and doesn’t mentally fold once things start going downhill. So why won’t he be called up until next week?

His fastball reached 92 m.p.h. Myers likely won’t be activated by the big club until late next week, but he pronounced himself “ready when they want me. I’m throwing all my pitches, and my stuff is sharp.”

Really? We gotta wait until next week to start throwing this guy? Is it that important that we keep both Bruntlett and Cairo on the bench, just in case we need a right hander to come off the bench and strike out? We need two guys for that role? Dunno if the Phillies have noticed, but it’s all hands on deck to get this bullpen situation straightened out in the next month, or this team is three and done in October. Maybe they want to see Myers throw another time in the minors, but I take Brett at his word of being ready, and I’d like to see him on the hill in the Bigs sooner than later.

• How much longer do we have to entertain the idea that Brett Myers is an integral part of this team? Everyone seems willing to cut him slack when he’s acting like a Northern Floridian (wife beating, rednecking, bar brawling) but the thing that amazes me is how people seem to always think he’s going to be the answer to the Phillies’ pitching woes. For a guy with a career ERA of 4.39 (4.43 in the playoffs), he’s a pitcher I’d just assume let drift off to sea quietly.
• Remember all that talk about what a lock the Phillies are to win the N.L. East? Well, according to the coolstandings.com season simulation, of current division leaders, only Detroit is less of a lock to win their division than the Phillies. The simulation also shows that the Phillies rank 5 out of 6 (with the Tigers last again) among current division leaders’ likeliness to make the playoffs altogether.
• For all the fanfare surrounding Pedro Martinez’s start against the Cubs last Wednesday (7 hits, 5 IP, 3 ER), he offered little more than a Jamie Moyer start. The big knock against Moyer has been his inability to go late into games; this is exactly the same m.o. Pedro has (remember how Grady Little’s decision to keep a tired Pedro in too long in Game 7 cost Boston the 2003 ALCS, and Little his job?). Here’s to hoping his performance tonight against Jon Garland and the D-Backs tonight shows some improvement.
• For the first time in the past 4 seasons, Ryan Howard is not leading the National League in any significant category (including strikeouts, though he’s on pace to K 199 times this year, matching his career high from 2007). The good news: in the past 2 series (6 games against the Cubs and Braves), Howard is hitting .381 with 4 home runs in 24 at-bats with only 5 strikeouts. And he also has a triple on his card during this stretch, helping to give him an unwordly 1.548 OPS.

Ok, so let’s get this straight. A fight breaks out at a Jacksonville bar that Brett Myers is hanging out in. One of his good buddies is involved in the altercation. When Myers shows up the next day at the ballpark he had a black eye. But Myers, who has a reputation for being, uh, a bit of a hothead didn’t get involved in the fight? I’m supposed to believe that he got the black eye when “he tripped and fell while exiting one of his family’s trucks Friday night”?  How does one fall from a truck in such a fashion that the net result is a black eye? I could see falling out a truck and maybe hurting a wrist when one tried to catch oneself. But it seems to be that the only way to get a black eye would be to dive out of the truck head first and land on one’s eye. Or perhaps he slipped on some of that treacherous Jacksonville ice. It can be a bitch in August.  

RELATED: Andy Martino is keeping abreast of Myersgate at the Phillies Zone.

I generally enjoy reading what Jayson Stark has to say and this week’s installment of Rumblings & Grumblings is no exception. Of particular pleasure is the fact that he devotes about 2/3 of the column space to the Phillies, which reminds me that they’ve “made it.” I’m also reminded that Stark uses shorter sentences than I do which is probably why he gets paid the big bucks while I sit in my red underwear in bed with my dog.

The general theme of Stark’s column is the trade deadline. With the Phillies and Roy Halladay obviously inspiring the topic, J.S. gives us the “The Five Biggest Myths About the Trading Deadline.” While most of his examples don’t directly have anything to do with the Phillies historically, the reader gets the idea that Stark is making the case against the Phillies trading away prospects and young talent for Halladay. One interesting fact in particular:

Over the past 32 years, exactly 3 pitchers who’ve changed teams in mid-season have won a World Series game: Joe Blanton (last year), Jeff Weaver for the 2006 Cardinals and Mike Torrez for the 1977 Yankees.

About the Phillies’ interest in trading for Roy Halladay in the midst of their hot streak:

A Phillies source told Rumblings (Stark) you can forget that talk that the Phillies might be less motivated to deal for Roy Halladay because they’re running away with the N.L. East. If anything, he said, the Phillies are now even more motivated. “The focus is now not just to get there (the post season),” he said. It’s to get there and keep going. Making the playoffs is not the goal. To win the whole thing is the goal.”

About the very-real prospect of the A.L. East boogeymen (Yankees, Red Sox and Rays) being the A.L. rep in the World Series:

The Phillies know there’s a good possibility they’ll have to face one of the three A.L. East pirahnas. And the Phillies just went 6-12–while allowing 5.5 runs per game–versus the A.L. East in interleague play. If you subtract the now-injured Brett Myers, the Phillies rotation went 3-7 with a 4.74 ERA in that stretch…And what’s Halladay’s career record against the A.L. East? How about 59-30? Don’t think the Phillies haven’t noticed that fun little stat.

Stark goes on to talk about J.A. Happ and Kyle Drabek, Dominic Brown and Michael Taylor and the fact that the Phils may be in the market for Orioles reliever, George Sherill as well as a right-handed bat (yawn). Finally, he related Jayson Werth’s idea that hitters would be more motivated to participate in the Home Run Derby if the winner were awarded a bag filled with $100 bills.

Well now that I’ve done little more than let Jayson Stark do all my work for me, I’ll leave you alone with these thoughts. Come to think of it, I could have done even less and simply posted the link to his article. But then the bikini pic would have made less sense. Or not.

After 2 games against the Cubs, the Phillies are 2-0 which means they’ve won 5 consecutive series, 10 of their last 11 games and since getting swept by the Braves to open July, they’ve won 14 of the last 15 games. The offense has scored 93 runs during this stretch and the pitching staff is allowing an average of 2.3 runs per game, creating an average margin of victory of 4 runs.

Granted, the records of the Phillies’ last 5 opponents are a combined 18 games under .500 but the Phils are doing exactly what good teams are supposed to do: win the games on the schedule they should. It’s a good thing they’ve cleaned-up in July because their schedule through August will be a lot tougher with series against wild-card contenders San Francisco and Colorado, the N.L Central-leading Cardinals, the above-.500 Marlins and Cubs as well as 6 games against the red hot Braves. As the National League goes these days, this schedule qualifies as pretty tough.

The team’s recent success combined with the Pedro Martinez excitement, J.A. Happ hysteria and Rodrigo Lopez’s recent quality starts has created an environment where fans aren’t demanding Ruben Amaro produce Roy Halladay. Glossing over the big picture of remaining focused on a World Series win by ignoring the importance of making this trade would be an awful by-product of the current streak. Unfortunately for Amaro et al, the trade deadline is looming and a decision will have to be made before the Phils find out what they’re really made of as they face tougher competition.

With this in mind, my optimism for acquiring Halladay took a nosedive today when I read that Brett Myers is suddenly ready to defy his season-ending injury and pitch in August. With the team winning and memories of last October fresh in people’s minds, this development could produce just enough false optimism to steer the team away from trading for Halladay. But this would be a huge mistake.

The Phillies aren’t going to surpise anyone in the playoffs this year. The Dodgers are a better team than last year. Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain are a frightful 1-2 punch for the Giants. The American League representative in the World Series is likely New York or Boston, two teams with seasoned Series veterans and top-2 starting pitchers in Sabathia and Burnett and Beckett and Lester. As they’re currently composed (even with a Myers return), the Phillies starters would be at a competitive disadvantage against all these teams (with the possible exception of the Dodgers).

The Phillies look good right now and they’re doing exactly what they should be doing against inferior talent. As much as it’s possible to say this on July 22, they are a lock to make the postseason. But we should keep in mind that’s not good enough around here any more. If the Phillies are serious about winning a World Series this year, the front office needs to remain grounded and not get distracted by the past 3 weeks’ success. This means trading for Roy Halladay (or another proven top-of-the-rotation arm) and positioning themelves for more challenging competition as the final 3 months of the season approach.

Take a quick look at Sam Donnellon’s article in today’s Daily News and you’ll see three things: an unpaid marketer for the Phillies, someone with an unrealistic grip on the way baseball works and an unabashed homer. The article is headlined “Believe it or Not, Phillies Doing Fine.” That would be like saying “Believe it or Not, Richard Simmons Not Gay.”

The article is predicated on the idea that the Phillies weren’t much better at the same point last year (though, as Donnellon himself notes, they had 5 more wins) and that injuries and sub-par starting pitching plagued them through the middle of last season as well. All that is true, the problem is that people believe that because the Phillies won it all last year that they have a team built to contend this year and the reality of the first half of the season tells us they don’t.

To fans, remembering epic late season runs evokes the hope that these things can be repeated. In reality, there are countless examples of teams that got hot at the right time (did anyone seriously believe the same thing about last year’s Colorado Rockies?), made deep playoff runs or won it all and weren’t so hot the next year. The reason is because very few teams in any sport are actually built so solidly as to be likely to repeat as champions.

Be honest with yourself: do you really believe that Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, Joe Blanton and Jamie Moyer are a multi-year playoff-caliber pitching rotation? Last year, everyone pitched well at the right times, Brad Lidge was perfect and the Phillies drew 3 playoff opponents that weren’t exactly the ‘98 Yankees. That being said, they won the games and won the Series and that’s nothing short of terrific.

But looking at the composition of this team (in particular the pitching), how can anyone seriously expect them to repeat? How can we sit here and act like we’re being deprived of the perfomance of masters who are simply having a half-season slump? Sure, they have time to right the ship (after all, they play in an awful division and are still in first) and the possibility is there for them to content for the pennant. But the question is should we believe they will and so far the overwhelming evidence points in the other direction.

This isn’t a team with Jon Lester and Josh Beckett or Cain and Lincecum or Wainwright and Carpenter or even Lowe and Jurrjens. And to this point, it’s not a team with Zach Greinke, Cliff Lee, Dan Haren or Roy Halladay. This is a team whose theoretical best pitcher is Cole Hamels (4-5, 4.98). In actuality, their best pitcher is J.A. Happ (5-0, 3.00) who will try to prevent a 3-game sweep at the hands of the 4th-place Atlanta Braves tonight.

Listen, I’m not trying to be a debbie downer but the idea that this team deserves to or is inherently built to bounce right back is ludicrous. Rather, this is a team whose weaknesses are being exposed and despite the fact they’re better than their month of June has indicated, it’s not the Phillies’ birthright (because of what happened last October) to win it all again. So please stop telling us it is.

In today’s Inquirer the poll question is “Phillies (sic) ace Cole Hamels has a 4.48 ERA. Should the team be concerned?” I voted and found out that 47% of respondents said yes (his ERA was 3.09 last year) and the rest said no big deal. Sure, Hamels isn’t pitching his best but we all know what he’s capable of and he has a history of getting better as the season progresses.

The area where this should be troubling is the relationship Hamels’ performance has to the pitching staff overall. Currently, J.A. Happ has the best ERA among starters with 3.53. The inactive Brett Myers is at 4.66 followed by Joe Blanton at 5.17, Antonio Bastardo with 5.25, and Jamie Moyer with 6.35. The best ERA in the bullpen belongs to J.C. Romero with a 1.08. Other significant bullpen pitchers are Ryan Madson at 2.16, Scott Eyre with 2.57, Clay Condrey at 3.44, Chad Durbin with 3.89, Chan Ho Park at 6.08 and the disabled Brad Lidge with a 7.27. Since his return to the Phillies, Kyle Kendrick has amassed a 13.50 ERA.

On a pitching staff that hasn’t found its way this year, it is concerning that Hamels has been mediocre because a top team needs a guy whose starts can be relied upon. True, the bullpen has had its bright spots but over 9 (or more, as of late) innings, team ERA is more important that starting vs. relief ERAs. The NL average is 4.27 and the Phillies are about a half run worse at 4.75. Only the Nationals are worse in the National League with a team ERA of 5.28.

At some point this season the Phillies are going to have to get this ship righted. They aren’t getting bailed out as much as they were last year by the offense. To boot, Lidge’s perfect season is a distant memory at the back end of the rotation. As it stands, you’d like to see your ace (not J.A. Happ) taking the reins and leading your pitching staff into a stronger middle third of the season.