Game 1 starters have been announced for one of the most anticipated games in recent memory. Roy Halladay will take the mound tomorrow in Clearwater as the Phillies try to redeem themselves against C.C. Sabathia and the New York Yankees. This will be the first of 5 spring training games played between the two teams that fought for the World Series title last winter.

Look for Halladay to throw around 45 pitches in tomorrow’s game. Phils’ pitching coach, Rich Dubee, says he’ll be happy if his pitchers “pound the strike zone, work on tempo and find a fluid delivery.” It’s also being reported that Kyle Kendrick and Andrew Carpenter will pitch in tomorrow’s game.

C.C. Sabathia doesn’t seem too concerned about tomorrow’s start. As for the matchup with Halladay, Sabathia said “I’ll be in the dugout eating seeds and goofing off.” And is he worried about Chase Utley taking him deep tomorrow? “Come on” Sabathia said with a laugh, “it’s spring training.” Apparently Sabathia has no respect for the importance this game will have for callers to WIP. His ignorance of that is indicative of the reason we never wanted him here anyway.

Much is being made of the fact that Jayson Werth is in the last year of his contract with the Phillies. Werth is due $7.5 million this year, which will make him the 7th-highest player on a team that has a $138 million payroll for the 2010 season. Ruben Amaro has made a lot of noise about the fact that this team is not the New York Yankees, presumably meaning that the Phillies cannot afford to have more than 4 or 5 players making more than $15 million per season. How this relates to their ability to resign Werth is unclear at this point, so let’s take a look at some of the Phillies’ payroll commitments for the near future.

In the short term, the six Phillies who will make more money than Werth this season are Ryan Howard ($19 million), Roy Halladay ($15.75), Chase Utley ($15.29), Raul Ibanez ($12.17), Brad Lidge ($12) and Jimmy Rollins ($8.5). All six of these players are under contract for the 2011 season and only two of them, Howard and Halladay, are due raises in ‘11 ($1 million and $4.25, respectively). This means that the Phillies are committed for about $88 million in 2011 for their top players and $133 million altogether.

Going a step further, Raul Ibanez’s advanced age and free agent status makes him a certain subtraction from the Phils’ payroll in 2012. Brad Lidge (who knows what he’ll be like in 2 years) is only due $1.5 million in 2012. Utley and Halladay are both under contract through the 2013 season so Jimmy Rollins will have to be renegotiated (2012 is the last year of his deal). With the bulk of the Phillies minor league talent existing in the form of outfielders, the need for Werth’s services past the 2011 season are questionable, which may make parting ways with him palatable for Amaro and the organization. But that all boils down to how much money Werth can expect from suitors in the free agency market.

Obviously, Ruben Amaro is better in touch with the mechanics of free agency than we are, so let’s just do a cursory look at what Werth, a career .265 hitter, can expect in the form of a raise. Statistically, Werth is coming off his most impressive season. He hit 50% more home runs in 2009 than in his next-most productive season (24 in 2008). He’s never tallied more than 100 RBI (max was 99 last season) and he’s never had an OPS better than .879. His career strikeout-to-walk ratio isn’t good (just about 1 BB for every 2 Ks) and while Werth does have good range in right field, his speed hasn’t translated that well to his stolen base totals: his best seasons were ‘08 and ‘09 where he stole 20 bases each season. For his career, he steals a base about once in every nine games he plays.

Let’s take Jason Bay’s signing by the Mets as a comparison. Bay’s contract will pay him $54.5 million over the next 4 years, plus a $17 million club option for 2014, meaning he’ll average about $13.63 million in his guaranteed years with the Mets. Considering Werth is making $7.5 million, should he expect a $6 million raise on par with a guy like Bay?

Like Werth, Bay has played 7 Major League seasons. His career average is .280. He hit the same number of home runs as Werth this past season (let’s consider Fenway Park and Citizens Bank Park to be washes in terms of their favorability to power hitters–two of the smallest lots in baseball). Bay has hit twice as many home runs in his career than Werth (185-93). Bay has tallied more than 100 RBI in 4 of his 7 seasons (119 in 2009) and has a career OPS of .896 which is better than Werth’s best single-season OPS. Bay’s SO-BB ratio is about 6% better than Werth’s. While Bay has a career best of 21 stolen bases (exceeding Werth’s best season), that was in 2005 and he only steals a base every 14 games.

We know the Mets are a relatively free-spending team when it comes to free agency. Considering they are spending less than $15 on Jason Bay (who has had a markedly better offensive career than Werth), can we really project that Werth will be able to command a contract that pays him in excess of $15 million per season? And assuming we can’t, how should we take Amaro’s argument that a likely parting with Werth will happen because the Phillies don’t want to overspend, on par with a team like the Yankees?

Jayson Werth is a very good outfielder who is coming off his best season. But it seems unlikely to me that Werth will command the kind of money that will prevent the Phillies from making him a competitive offer in free agency. So if the magic number is $140 million for 2011 and the Phillies are already committed to $133 million (with all the other top players under contract), it will be interesting to see how far over $140 Amaro will be willing to go to resign Werth.

Let me start by noting the obvious: the following discussion is trivial, premature and theoretical. If for no other simple reason that we still haven’t seen Game 6 of the World Series played yet, there’s no way to really say who the MVP of the Series is. But for the sake of illustrating just how great Chase Utley has been so far, let’s entertain the notion that he’s been the the most valuable (read: greatest impact on the Series of any player) participant in this year’s Series.

The Phillies’ second baseman has an OPS of 1.651. That is unheard of. He’s accumulated 22 total bases and his slugging percentage is 1.222. Through 5 games, these numbers are stratospheric. He’s reached base 43% of the time he’s been at the plate. And, as everyone knows by now, he’s tied Reggie Jackson’s mark of 5 home runs in a World Series. Most importantly, Utley’s produced 8 runs with his bat.

Who else has had an impact so significant? Well, Johnny Damon has been the definition of a professional hitter, having drawn-out at-bats in late inning situations. But Damon’s clutch hitting hasn’t resulted in the raw production Utley’s has. Damon’s OPS is .911, not anywhere close to Utley’s. His OBP is fantastic (.435, .006 better than Utley’s) but he’s only driven in 4 runs and has hit no homers.

Alex Rodriguez has also come alive in the past few games. But like Damon’s OPS, his is well under 1.000. To his credit, A-Rod has made himself into a intimidating figure at the plate and while the Phillies may be wise to simply put him on base every time he’s up, his numbers don’t shine as brightly as Utley’s. He has fewer RBI (6), less than half the total bases Utley has (10) and has an OBP .65 less than Utley.

Jayson Werth has (relatively) quietly put up number better than both Damon’s and A-Rod’s. He’s hit for 11 total bases, a .400 OBP and a 1.047 OPS. The only other reasonable contestant is Derek Jeter but his numbers are comparable to or worse than both his aforementioned Yankees teammates.

I don’t think a starting pitcher can be mentioned in this discussion if for no other reason the fact that they impact fewer than half the games. Unless a pitcher is single-handedly responsible for multiple wins, he shouldn’t be in the discussion, a big part of the reason I’m leaving Cliff Lee out of the conversation. For as great as he was in Game 1, last night’s performance should be best described as solid. None of the Yankees’ pitchers’ starts can be characterized as superlative, and while Mariano Rivera scares the pants off everyone, he’s only pitched 3 and 2/3 innings. I’m sorry but that just isn’t good enough when compared against a guy like Utley who’s played in 40 innings.

Chase Utley’s performance in this World Series is the only reason it’s still going on. If the Phillies find a way to get it to a Game 7 and Utley delivers a clutch hit, win or lose his performance in this year’s Fall Classic will be remembered as one of the great efforts of all time.

I’m sitting here listening to Anthony Gargano on WIP with his marbles-in-the-mouth, over-affected South Philly accent blabber on-an-on about how wonderful last night’s game was. And it was. But it’s over and the series isn’t yet decided. With that said last night’s game gave us a glance at why confidence in this team is never in short supply and why the Phillies can never be counted out.

At the same time I’m curious to know how much confidence people have in Cole Hamels’ ability to close it out tomorrow night. He’s been the one player this postseason that fans have had a lukewarm relationship with. Why? Because he’s aloof, simply put. The quality that became apparent in Colorado in the Phillies comeback and again last night is something that Hamels doesn’t seem to have. He seems uninterested and at times even surly.

His numbers in his first two playoff starts aren’t great. He gave up 7 hits and 4 earned runs in his Game 2 start against the Rockies in 5 innings pitched. And then in Game 1 against the Dodgers he surrendered 8 hits and 4 earned runs in 5.1 innings. Hamels also infamously glared at Chase Utley after the second baseman’s throwing error led to the Manny Ramirez home run blast in Game 1. The Phillies managed to win that game but not because of Hamels. They won because they hung around and out-gritted the Dodgers.

It’s going to take a Herculean effort for the Dodgers to come back on the Phillies in this series so looking ahead, the Phillies are going to need to be close to perfect if they’re going to beat the Yankees. They haven’t faced a lineup as top-to-bottom powerful as New York’s and if they’re going to best baseball’s biggest franchise, it’s going to take great pitching. Right now the one area of concern for this team is what Hamels will bring to the mound. Following that logic we’ll need to see a little more from Cole Hamels if this team is going to reach its ultimate and historic goal.

pic via Balls, Sticks and Stuff

The Phillies captured their 3rd-straight N.L. East title last night by beating the Astros virtue of the Braves losing moments before Brad Lidge was brought into the game with 26 Astros’ outs in the book. I thought that move by Charlie Manuel showed what a gentleman he is to make a point on the grand stage of the team’s clinching the division that even its most maligned star will not be thrown on the trash heap. Of course, Jamie Moyer’s season-ending injury prevents Manuel from having to make such a decision of the 46-year old but at least Lidge got some time in the sun. We should all take stock in the fact that this team’s accomplishments may well not have come about without the leadership of one of the classiest men in baseball.

The next 4 days present somewhat of a dilemma for Manuel. On one hand, jockeying for seeding position against the other 3 playoff teams could result in favorable matchups/home field. But with the Phillies desperately in need of some rest and lots of work to do on the bullpen, this time is better spent working out the kinks. So expect to see a lot of Adam Tracy and Eric Bruntlett this weekend. I can stand to miss Utley and Ibanez for a few games if it means they’re fresh next week at this time, when it counts.

Aside from making a point that, on the surface, is painfully obvious as well as making a claim that is patently absurd, Bill Conlin’s article in today’s Daily News is moderately interesting. Like all things Phillies right now, the underlying theme is Roy Halladay. With that in mind, Conlin lays out a number of historical facts supporting the idea that a “five-tool” player (hits for power and average, plus he runs, throws and fields well) is more desirable than a Cy Young-caliber pitcher. The argument is predicated on the fact that starting pitchers only affect one out of 5 games whereas position players are (for the most part) on the field every day.

It’s hard to argue the reality of that point. But even if one were inclined, what would be the point? That’s just the nature of the positions, kind of like the fact goalies don’t score many goals during a hockey season. And as for this reasoning’s applicability to the Halladay trade, it’s not as if the issue that’s holding it up is the Phillies’ unwillingness to part with a 5-tooler. Unless, of course, Conlin is hinting towards minor leaguers, to which a reasonable person would invoke apples and oranges.

Conlin then makes the leap to the absurd. He invokes Chase Utley, a legitimate 5-tool player. The relevance is unclear since there’s never been any talk of trading him. Furthermore, he goes on to say (of Utley) “several respected analysts, including Hall of Fame second baseman, Joe Morgan, consider him the best player in the game.” While Chase Utley is probably the best second baseman in the game (Dustin Pedroia, while a few years behind, should be in the conversation), any argument in favor of anyone other than Albert Pujols as the best player in the game is immediately dismissable on grounds of outright foolishness. Conlin could have even said “best 5-tooler” in the game and may have gotten closer to being right but as good as Utley is, best player in baseball he is not.

What isn’t debatable is how good the Phillies lineup is, not just at the plate but on the base paths and in the field. In terms of top to bottom lineup versatility, the Phils are the best power hitting team in baseball. And while the Phillies rank only 5th in the N.L. in team average (.261), they do lead the League in OPS (.793). So I guess you might think of them as the team 5-tooler of the National League. And when you consider that none of their starting position players are mentioned in trade rumors for Halladay, it makes you wonder why Conlin wrote that article at all.

Because every national media outlet is hell-bent on giving Philadelphia sports minimal and negative coverage, you never want to look a gift horse in the mouth if you’re a Phillies fan. However, Rick Sutcliffe’s article on espn.com today about Chase Utley’s worthiness as an MVP candidate seems a little, um, obvious.

The article reads like a wake-up call to baseball fans who’ve never heard of Chase. True, he is the leading vote-getter in NL All Star balloting and clearly the best 2nd baseman in the National League but to hear it from Sutcliffe his popularity has been buried on a team dominated by megastars, Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard.

And again, not that Utley is undeserving of MVP attention, it’s just that he happens to have suffered twice from playing with teammates who’ve had better individual seasons. With that in mind, how can Sutcliffe make the argument that Utley should be be thought of as the NL MVP when his teammate, Raul Ibanez, leads the Phillies in every significant offensive category other than on-base percentage and triples?

Sutcliffe’s article just seems strange to me for two reasons. One, everyone already knows how good Utley is and he is already a perennial MVP candidate. And second, lots can happen between now and then (e.g. Ibanez’s 15-day DL stint) but clearly the MVP on the Phillies (and the NL) this season is Raul Ibanez, not Chase Utley.

• I’d like to take a few moments and speculate/percolate in the wonderment of the Donovan McNabb salary story.
• The Phillies beat the Red Sox yesterday and to hear it from fans, they just won the World Series again. A gentle reminder to Phillies Nation: you’re the champs now; let them get up for you, not the other way around.
• Despite the win yesterday, the Phillies lost the series and have yet to win a home series against anyone not named the Nationals. They are now 13-16 at home and if you subtract the 6 games they’ve played at home against the Nats they are 8-15 at home.
• The Phillies smoked Josh Beckett yesterday. He wasn’t the only superstar pitcher to get roughed up in a NL East game yesterday. Johan Santana had the worst start of his career, throwing 82 pitches in 3 innings and surrendering 9 hits and 9 earned runs in a 15-0 loss to the New York Stinkies. And in Atlanta, Derek Lowe gave up 7 runs on 8 hits, throwing a whopping 80 pitches in 2.1 innings.
• Chase Utley is the overall leader in vote-getting for the NL All Star Team. Raul Ibanez leads among outfielders. A Phillie is in the top-4 in votes at every position on the diamond.

More great East Coast baseball this weekend as the Mets and Yankees square off in the Bronx and the Red Sox visit Philly for 3. These matchups are what make Interleague play so much fun for the fans. With apologies to the old, crusty baseball writers and self-appointed “purists,” Interleague play is great because fans have fun seeing matchups that would otherwise only be possible by a stroke of World Series luck.

I was listening to a conversation just now about how the Red Sox and Phillies match up, position-by-position (forgetting pitching). Anthony Gargano said that he’d take every member of the Phillies’ infield over the Red Sox (Feliz and Lowell were a push). What do you think? Ibanez, Victorino and Werth in the outfield against Bay, Ellsbury and Drew?

Of the starting players, there are only 2 positions where I think one team has the definitive edge. The first would be shortstop where (despite his slow start) the Phillies have an MVP and absolute defensive stud in Jimmy Rollins. I’d take him any day over the platoon of Nick Green, Jed Lowrie and Julio Lugo. The other position I think is clear-cut is right field: Jayson Werth is yet to establish himself with an outstanding season and despite a slightly-sub par year so far, Drew’s numbers are better in every statistical category both this season and for his career.

It’s an interesting conversation especially when you consider the 2nd base pairing: along with Ian Kinsler in Texas, Dustin Pedroia and Chase Utley are the two best at that position in baseball. What about first base? Would you rather have Ryan Howard, a home run machine who’s going to give you almost 200 SOs, a fair average and an increasingly good defensive presence or Kevin Youkilis, who’s hitting .350 with a 1.104 OPS, a gold glove and a projected 32 HRs this year?

What do you think?

Awesome weekend for big name baseball. In a rare sense of allegiance with a team Philadelphians mysteriously despite, folks all over the Delaware Valley will be pulling for the Red Sox to step on the Mets’ hairy necks. To kick it off tonight, one of the best pitching matchups of the year: Johan Santana vs. Daisuke Matsuzaka.

For the Phillies, it’s a huge series against the universally-detested New York Yankees. Sunday’s game features two of the best lefties in baseball, C. C. Sabathia vs. Cole Hamels. As for the first game tonight, Brett Myers will put his MLB-leading home runs allowed label on the line at the ballpark which yields the most dingers in baseball. Let’s hope Utley, Howard and Ibanez can out-slug Teixeira and A-Rod.

As for you, with all the great baseball and playoff hoops and hockey games, there should be no excuse to not be firmly inside all weekend watching sports. Of course, this is a holiday weekend so your dreaded brunch appointment with the missus is replaced by the required trip to the Shore. Since you’re doing the same thing every other Philadelphian is this weekend, why don’t you stay true to form and rip Arthur Kade: it’s a new Philly tradition. And yeah, he’s for real.

Le Schedule:

Tonight Phillies (Myers 3-2, 4.50) vs Yankees (Burnett 2-1, 5.02) at Yankee Stadium at 7:05

Game 3 of NHL Western Conference Finals: Red Wings (2-0) at Blackhawks at 8:00

Game 2 of NBA Eastern Conference Finals: Magic (1-0) at Cleveland at 8:30

Saturday Phillies (Happ 2-0, 2.49) vs Yankees (Pettitte 4-0, 4.18) at Yankee Stadium at 4:10

Game 3 of NHL Eastern Conference Finals: Penguins (2-0) at Hurricanes at 7:30

Game 3 of NBA Western Conference Finals: Lakers (1-1) at Nuggets at 8:30

Sunday Phillies (Hamels 2-2, 4.95) vs Yankees (Sabathia 4-3, 3.43) at Yankee Stadium at 1:05

Game 4 of NHL Western Conference Finals: Red Wings (2-0) at Blackhawks at 3:00

Game 3 of NBA Eastern Conference Finals: Cavaliers at Magic (1-0) at 8:30