It turns out Charlie Manuel would have liked Cliff Lee to stay in Philadelphia. Just like in the case of his wife’s decision to buy expensive furniture, however, Charlie was powerless to stop the front office from shitting its pants. This isn’t exactly a shocking revelation but the fact that he said so publicly is a refreshing piece of honesty, regardless of how obvious that honesty is. It’s like the opposite of the lying nonsense put forth by Manuel’s boss, Ruben Amaro, on the matter. Yes, Ruben, we believe you that given the choice between “replenishing the farm system” and having the N.L.’s best rotation headlined by 2 Yankee killers, the former was a hotter priority. Or that the $9 million they saved by letting Lee go is being put to better use in the form of Shane Victorino and Joe Blanton.

Sure, the manager always wants to keep the star player because that makes his job easier. Charlie doesn’t have to worry about contracts or free agents; he just needs to fill out the lineup card and pat his guys on their butts (and even a circus clown knows that Cliff Lee’s services should have been retained). I would have liked Lee to be back but oh well, I guess I’ll have to settle for Jose Contreras.

It looks like the Phillies are just about done with their offseason errands. They’ve signed Carlos Ruiz to a 3-year deal reportedly worth $8.85 million. Last week, of course, they spent the money they should have spent on Cliff Lee on Joe Blanton. They also acquired a hopefully-versatile Jose Contreras last week for one season. Most importantly, Charlie Manuel resigned his deal with longevity by losing 60 pounds. Shane Victorino’s resigned too, though philly.com’s Matt Gelb wonders whether the acquisition of Placido Polanco will mean that the Flyin’ Hawaiian will be moved down in the order.

And finally, news broke today that Matt Stairs is no longer a Phil. He’s signed a minor league deal with the San Diego Padres, meaning that he’s now played for 11 major league teams in 18 seasons. Stairs’ departure means nothing to the Phillies from a performance perspective but he’s one of those guys fans love, precisely because of quotes like this one: “when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you’re getting your ass hammered by guys-there’s no better feeling than to have that done.”

Eyebrows were raised this week when 2-time Cy Young winner, Tim Lincecum, asked for $13 million from the San Francisco Giants in his arbitration filing. The Giants are offering $8 million. Unlike other sports, in baseball arbitration the decision isn’t an arbitrated amount somewhere in the middle; it’s a process that results in either the team’s number or the player’s being awarded. The current record for money awarded through this process is $10 million (Ryan Howard, Francisco Rodriguez and Alfonso Soriano) which is probably why there’s so much noise about Lincecum’s request (for the record, Lincecum’s salaries during his two Cy Young seasons were $405,000 and $640,000).

The laugher in this year’s arbitration stakes is that Joe Blanton is asking for $10.25 million. Joe Blanton. $10.25 million. Granted, Blanton is a valuable middle of the rotation starter but this kind of request is about as reasonable as me asking for $50,000 for the work I do on this website. But that’s not even the punch line of the joke: the kicker is that the Phillies are offering $7.5 million.

Now take a moment and think about Ruben Amaro’s approach to the 2011 season with his offer to Joe Blanton in mind: if the Phillies are willing to pay the 3rd or 4th starter in their rotation $7.5 million this season (a guy with a career winning percentage of .538 and an ERA north of 4) why in the holy hell wasn’t Amaro willing to drop $1.5 million more on Cliff Lee?

There is no-one who lives in Philadelphia who will ever forget Game 1 of the 2009 World Series. Batter after batter on the most dangerous team in baseball came to the plate, and Cliff Lee just kept methodically mowing them down. Though our hopes would be dashed a little over a week later, the excitement we felt when Lee grabbed that chopper behind his back secured his status as a legend in this town, the same way that Aaron Rowand’s nosebreaking catch made him a Philly immortal. Two months later, he’s gone. And he can’t believe it.

“Disbelief. Shock. At first I didn’t believe it. I thought we were working out an extension with the Phillies and I was going to spend the rest of my career there.”

Even if he hadn’t worked out the deal, of course, the Phillies could have put away the National League by keeping Lee on the team. The combination of Halladay, Lee, and Hamels would have simply meant that the 162 game season and playoffs were a warmup for the World Series. Barring injury, this would have been the first National League team in a non-Wartime situation to go to three straight World Series since the early 1920s New York Giants. (Yeah, the Cards did in the 40s, but that’s when so many pros were at war that one armed guys played in the league. Doesn’t count.) That’s right. This Phillies team, for 9 million dollars, could have begun making their argument for being ONE OF THE GREATEST NATIONAL LEAGUE TEAMS OF ALL TIME. Instead, they decided to pick up a few players in the Mariners farm system. Just like they got prospects when they traded Bobby Abreu. How did “Replenishing the farm system” work out for the Phils that time? What’s Carlos Monasterios up to these days? The bottom line has nothing to do with prospects. It has to do with the Phillies being satisfied with “contending” instead of “dominating”. And they certainly will contend. But they blew their chance to end the 2010 National League season before it began. And if they don’t make it to the 2010 World Series and thus lose their chance to be one of the best teams ever, a replenished farm system is going to be very little consolation.

Let me start by saying that I will certainly not be unhappy in any way with Roy Halladay as the Phillies’ ace. I argued extensively last season for the Phils to make a move to get him and he is one of the top-5 pitchers in baseball, perhaps made even better in the short run by being a veteran of baseball’s best division. And now Halladay will land in the N.L. which by recent experience should mean he’ll get even more of a boost. From a performance perspective, Halladay probably becomes the best pitcher in the National League going into 2010.

But there are questions surrounding this move and its timing that can’t be ignored. First and foremost is the issue of what the Phillies have given up to acquire Halladay. Because Cliff Lee is gone as a result of this trade, the Phillies are simply replacing one ace with another. Let’s start with the trade that rented Cliff Lee for 12 starts to close out the 2009 season (and 4 brilliant playoff starts). According to mlb.com the Phillies will part with previously “untouchable” top pitching prospect, Kyle Drabek, as well as outfielder Michael Taylor and catcher Travis d’Arnaud. Combine that with the players they sent to Cleveland in the Lee deal (pitchers Jason Knapp and Carlos Carrasco, catcher Lou Marson and infielder Jason Donald) and you have a pretty high price paid for what amounts to be one pitcher.

In fairness, prospects are exactly that: an unknown commodity. But emptying close to your entire minor league tank to fill one rotation spot seems to be a bold gamble, even moreso when you consider the fact that Roy Halladay is negligably better than Cliff Lee. To boot, Roy Halladay has pitched 4 more seasons than Cliff Lee and has pitched exactly 850 innings more than Lee, meaning his treads are a lot more worn than Lee’s.

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ESPN’s Jayson Stark is reporting that a deal is “close” but “not done” that would make Roy Halladay a Phillie and Cliff Lee, well, not a Phillie. In a three-way move, Lee would go to Seattle, Halladay would come here and the Phils would part with more prospects. Ruben Amaro has done his best to tinker with the team this offseason and appears to be eager to make sure that his name is relevant every day of winter vacation.

On one hand, Cliff Lee has been rumored to be very interested in testing the free agency market upon the expiration of his contract at the end of next season. If he’s dead-set on that, then nothing the Phillies do can keep him. But if Amaro offered him a whopper contract (something along the lines of what he’ll have to give Halladay), it’s hard to imagine Lee declining simply to take his chances next offseason.

While Halladay is a statistically better pitcher, his value against Lee is negligible. Even if you brought Walter Johnson back from the dead, he couldn’t pitch better than Lee did last postseason. To boot, the prospects Amaro gave up in the Lee deal last season coupled with the prospects he’ll part with in a Halladay deal means he’s given away two sets of young players for one spot in the pitching rotation.

At the end of the day, it’s six of one, a half dozen of the other when you compare Lee and Halladay mainly because it’s really only one pitcher in red pinstripes at a time. Because of that Amaro has given up twice as much for essentially one pitcher. We won’t complain too much if Halladay is a Phillie but the wisdom of what the Phillies’ ace in the rotation costs does require questioning as does a desire to part with a guy like Cliff Lee who went 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA in last year’s playoffs.

I could never figure out why the “Why Can’t Us?” thing didn’t really catch on during last year’s playoffs. If you don’t remember it, well maybe that’s because we opted for more creative and original playoff themes like “Red October.” In any event, the semi-famous phrase was uttered by a caller to an XM radio show and when asked whether the Philles could win the whole thing, he said “Why Can’t Us?” It’s perfect for this town because it’s spontaneous, organic, unique and frankly, a little stupid. Hell, in a town where we’ve virtually banned the preposition (”down the shore,” “done my homework”), that little hint of illiteracy is just so wonderfully Philly.

Another thing flying around last night and today that makes no sense is all the yapping about who will start for the Phillies in Game 7. Both Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels were asked this question in multiple forms after the Phils win last night and (predictably) both seemed confident they were the guy for the job. There’s just one problem: there won’t be a game 7 unless the Phillies win tomorrow night. It’s utterly amazing that everyone (myself included) is patching together dozens of pitching permutations in order to figure out which hurler will be the Phillies best bet on Thursday night. Who cares? As of right now there is no such thing as a Game 7. There is Game 6 tomorrow night in New York and that is the only thing that matters.

I’d explain the methodology of the coolstandings.com game simulations but most of the people reading this site wouldn’t understand. After all, statistical analysis is only slightly below speaking English properly on the list of things Philadelphians do well so you’ll just have to trust us on this. Before the start of the series, the Yankees were a 60.7% favorite to win it all. After the Phillies won Game 1, the Yanks became a 41.9% likely winner. As of right now, the Yankees are an 80.1% favorite to win. The initial odds on the Yankees winning the series in 6 games was a 55.4%. The other two statistically-significant outcome percentages are Phillies in 7 (19.9%, duh) and the Yankees in 7 (24.7%). Because I live in Philadelphia, I don’t know what this means but it doesn’t look good.

Let me start by noting the obvious: the following discussion is trivial, premature and theoretical. If for no other simple reason that we still haven’t seen Game 6 of the World Series played yet, there’s no way to really say who the MVP of the Series is. But for the sake of illustrating just how great Chase Utley has been so far, let’s entertain the notion that he’s been the the most valuable (read: greatest impact on the Series of any player) participant in this year’s Series.

The Phillies’ second baseman has an OPS of 1.651. That is unheard of. He’s accumulated 22 total bases and his slugging percentage is 1.222. Through 5 games, these numbers are stratospheric. He’s reached base 43% of the time he’s been at the plate. And, as everyone knows by now, he’s tied Reggie Jackson’s mark of 5 home runs in a World Series. Most importantly, Utley’s produced 8 runs with his bat.

Who else has had an impact so significant? Well, Johnny Damon has been the definition of a professional hitter, having drawn-out at-bats in late inning situations. But Damon’s clutch hitting hasn’t resulted in the raw production Utley’s has. Damon’s OPS is .911, not anywhere close to Utley’s. His OBP is fantastic (.435, .006 better than Utley’s) but he’s only driven in 4 runs and has hit no homers.

Alex Rodriguez has also come alive in the past few games. But like Damon’s OPS, his is well under 1.000. To his credit, A-Rod has made himself into a intimidating figure at the plate and while the Phillies may be wise to simply put him on base every time he’s up, his numbers don’t shine as brightly as Utley’s. He has fewer RBI (6), less than half the total bases Utley has (10) and has an OBP .65 less than Utley.

Jayson Werth has (relatively) quietly put up number better than both Damon’s and A-Rod’s. He’s hit for 11 total bases, a .400 OBP and a 1.047 OPS. The only other reasonable contestant is Derek Jeter but his numbers are comparable to or worse than both his aforementioned Yankees teammates.

I don’t think a starting pitcher can be mentioned in this discussion if for no other reason the fact that they impact fewer than half the games. Unless a pitcher is single-handedly responsible for multiple wins, he shouldn’t be in the discussion, a big part of the reason I’m leaving Cliff Lee out of the conversation. For as great as he was in Game 1, last night’s performance should be best described as solid. None of the Yankees’ pitchers’ starts can be characterized as superlative, and while Mariano Rivera scares the pants off everyone, he’s only pitched 3 and 2/3 innings. I’m sorry but that just isn’t good enough when compared against a guy like Utley who’s played in 40 innings.

Chase Utley’s performance in this World Series is the only reason it’s still going on. If the Phillies find a way to get it to a Game 7 and Utley delivers a clutch hit, win or lose his performance in this year’s Fall Classic will be remembered as one of the great efforts of all time.

The 2009 World Series is going to go off with a bang, as Game 1 will feature two of the best pitchers in baseball, both of whom have been bulldogs in the postseason this year. Sabathia is 3-0 with a 1.22 ERA in the playoffs, while Cliff Lee is 2-0 with an 0.74. It’s like Gibson-McClain in ‘68. Ok, so maybe I’m being a bit hyperbolic, but this is still a great pitching matchup. What makes it a bit more intriguing is the fact that they both pitched for the Indians for many years together, with Sabathia winning the Cy Young as an Indians pitcher in 2007, and Cliff Lee winning the Cy Young as a member of the Tribe in 2008.

Of course, this is not Sabathia’s first meeting with the Phils with the pressure on. Last year, he gave up what in Philly is known as THE WALK in Game 1 of the NLDS while he was a hired gun for the Brewers. Sabathia would be pulled after a mere 3.2 innings, giving up 6 runs. I am sure he is not looking forward to pitching Game 5 in Philadelphia.

In case you are curious, the two are apparently pretty good friends, and were even texting back and forth during the playoffs. “I’ve stayed pretty close with him since he left Cleveland,” Lee said. “But that might have to change next week.”

Another interesting connection: Charlie Manuel was C.C. Sabathia’s manager in 2001 and the start of 2002 in Cleveland. Lee was called up two months after Charlie was fired.

Things not to do: get involved in a land war in Asia, mess with Sasquatch, pitch to Manny Ramirez with a man on base and 2 outs when you’re behind in the count 2-0. We don’t know if Hamels got cocky or whether he just missed his spot on that pitch that Manny golfed into the seats, but we do know that the Phils’ brass should have called in the following sequence: intentional ball 3, intentional ball 4. I’m sorry but the all-time postseason home run leader is not to be trifled with in that situation. He’s just not.

Alas, the Phillies won the game because, well, they’re better than the Dodgers. L.A. had several opportunities to get themselves back in the game but couldn’t because their players couldn’t handle Chan Ho Park. Park’s ability to work out of a jam late in the game may be the bright spot to come out of Game 1 as at least one Phillies’ reliever is showing his mettle. A long reliever is an extension of the starting pitcher and with a rotation that had looked shaky of late (with the exception of Cliff Lee), Park’s role becomes all the more important.

Game 2 is just moments away. There’s an interesting piece from yesterday’s N.Y. Times about Jim Thome, Matt Stairs and pinch hitting for home runs. It’s a good read and should get you in the mood for today’s matinee. Go Phils!