As JGT pointed out earlier in the day, Dan Haren is rumored to be on the Phillies’ wishlist. Haren is struggling this season in Arizona and has the poor record to show for it: 7-6 with a 4.56 ERA (for as mediocre as that W-L record is, it has fewer demerits than Roy Halladay’s). Goodtimes seemed to shrug-off the huge upside of landing Haren by saying he’d be an “upgrade from (Kyle) Kendrick.” He certainly would, but to describe Haren as a better fit in the 5-spot than Kendrick is to ignore the fact that Haren has been one of baseball’s better pitchers over his 8-year career.

As far as how he’d fit in with the Phillies, Haren’s career numbers make him a rival to steal the #2 spot from Cole Hamels. Haren has a marginally-better career ERA to Hamels (3.69-3.71), a better strikeout-to-walk ratio (3.9-3.5) and a slightly better WHIP (1.19-1.193). That’s several blocks from the Kyle Kendrick neighborhood.

While Hamels’ career winning percentage is higher (.574-.558), that’s probably more a product of playing the majority of his career on a playoff-caliber team whereas Haren’s spent the past six years in Oakland and Arizona. And for whatever it’s worth, Haren’s highest finish in Cy Young voting was 5th and that was last year. Hamels’ best finish in CY voting was 6th in 2007. To boot, Haren has pitched in 3 All-Star games to Hamels’ 1.

I don’t bring this up to disparage Cole Hamels, rather to point out how good Haren is. For a guy buried in relative obscurity in Arizona, his addition to the Phils’ rotation would make their top-3 competitive with the top-heavy rotations in Atlanta, St. Louis and San Francisco. Keep in mind that Haren has a better career WHIP and a higher strikeout-to-walk ratio than the Phils’ staff ace, Roy Halladay.

I don’t know what the Phillies would have to offer Arizona in trade; the D-Backs seem to always be in rebuilding mode so they’d presumably want young talent and we know what that cupboard looks like around here. Haren is under contract for another 2 seasons after 2010 (plus a 2013 club option) and he’ll average between $12.75 and $15.5 million the next few years. That’s a big price tag for a Phillies team that wasn’t willing to spend $9 million on Cliff Lee.

But if Ruben Amaro wants to erase his collosal, blunder-filled offseason (and help people forget about the fact Chase Utley is probably gone until September), pursuing Haren wouldn’t be a bad place to start. This kind of midseason move is what a 2-time defending N.L. pennant winner embroiled in a bitter division race should do. I know Jamie Moyer has been very good this season and that Haren’s isn’t cheap. But I’d rather see him on the mound in September and October.

Through six innings at an unnamed ballpark a certain pitcher is doing something impressive (and it doesn’t involve LSD). What is this unspoken feat that is in the works? Well, by the time you read this tomorrow morning while sitting at your boring desk job malingering, you’ll know. But for now, we’d better not say anything.

UPDATE: Ehhh.

UPDATE: Ehhh again.

Bernard Fernandez’s piece in today’s Daily News attempts to paint the picture that the Phillies bullpen is in healthy condition. He centers his article on J.C. Romero’s opinion that “we have some power arms in the bullpen.” The theme seems to be that the Phils are equipped to pitch well out of the pen because they (theoretically) have guys who should bring the heat more than they have in years past.

He cites Ryan Madson as an example, an idiotic assertion because Madson isn’t going to be pitching at all for the next 60 days. Fernandez also notes that Brad Lidge “again seems to have that 2008 zip on the hard stuff.” Forgive me if I’m reserving judgment on Lidge until he pitches at least 4 innings this season. And Fernandez even mentions how Danys Baez has a “plus fastball,” ignoring his “plus-sized” ERA of 6.92.

To be fair, there has been one bullpen brightspot in the person of Jose Contreras, who’s posted a sub-1.00 ERA and has a 15-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Projecting similar numbers over the course of an entire season for the 38-year old, however, seems a bit bold.

Fernandez goes on to cite the Phillies NL-leading 1.58 ERA for the month of May as evidence of their quality, going as far as to use the word “dominant” in equating the pen’s form. That ERA is incredibly misleading however, for two reasons. The first is the fact that the month of May represents only 9 games or 29% of the season. The real number that should be noted is 3.95, the ERA of the Phillies bullpen for the entire season (good for 9th in the National League). Furthermore, Phillies relievers have had relatively little pressure in May: the Phils margin of victory over their 9 games in May is better than 3 runs per game (on average) meaning the bullpen isn’t exactly finding itself inserted into tight spots.

The other reason the May ERA is misleading is the fact that the bullpen has only had to pitch 17.1 innings all month, meaning fewer than 2 innings per game. This is due to the fact that the starting pitching has been terrific and has pitched late into games. Of the Phillies 7 wins in May, only one has seen a starter go fewer than 6 innings (Cole Hamels pitched 5 against the Braves yesterday.)  And even in their two May losses, the Phillies got 6.2 and 6 innings from Joe Blanton. In short, the starters are averaging better than 7 innings per start in May, meaning the bullpen hasn’t really had a chance to screw up.

The point of this all is not to rip the team, but to draw attention to the deceptive and misleading assertion that the Phillies bullpen is ok. It’s a work in progress and it does seem to be getting a little better (helped immensely by the starting pitching and the offense). But before we start the inevitable Philly love fest surrounding short term success (or at least the perception of it) let’s let realism substitute for hopefulness when talking about the bullpen.

Forget Carlos Ruiz’s walk-off home run in extra innings. The heroics of his blast got the Phillies a win in game #26 of the 2010 season to draw even with the Cardinals in the 2nd of a 4-game set. The important thing that came out of last night’s game was the performance of Cole Hamels.

Since leading the Phillies to World Series glory in 2008, Cole Hamels has been shaky. He’s gone 13-15 since they won it all, compiling an ERA of 4.58. Seldom during that stretch have we seen glimpses of what made Hamels the World Series MVP that year. But last night’s outing against one of the better offenses in the N.L. showed that Hamels still has his stuff. Before being rattled in the 9th inning by a second consecutive day’s installment of a fan running onto the field Hamels was lights out, allowing no runs. Determined to show that this town is as stubborn as it is stupid, the fan’s decision to make himself the centerpiece of the game clearly rattled Hamels who promptly gave up 2 doubles and the chance at a win.

With Hamels coming off the field, the Philadelphia fans showed they do have at least some glimmer of decency. The gave Hamels, a guy who has taken over Donovan McNabb’s role in this town as the player you love to hate, a standing ovation, and rightfully so. Hamels’ closing line was 8 hits and 1 run over 8 innings, with 8 Ks and one walk on 116 pitches. He went toe-to-toe with Adam Wainwright the whole way, showing that when he’s on he’s right up there with the National League’s best. The best thing to come out of the game last night was Hamels’ confidence-boosting performance and even though he didn’t get the win, he reminded us of what he’s capable of. And also what this team will need if they’re going to win a 3rd consecutive pennant.

Things could not be any worse for the Phillies’ bullpen than they already were coming into the season. Their closer, Brad Lidge, was coming off an historically-bad 2009. J.C. Romero has been in some kind of interminable injury limbo. And the best Ruben Amaro could offer in the offseason was the acquisitions of Danys Baez and Jose Contreras. Fast forward to now: Brad Lidge has returned and shown himself to be as questionable as ever. In 1.1 innings pitched this season, Lidge has compiled a 2.25 WHIP and an ERA of 6.75.

No matter. Amaro and the Phillies’ pitching-challenged brain trust have had their backup plan in the works for a while. No, we’re not talking about an aggressive free agent signing during the winter. We’re talking about Ryan Madson, a guy who’s appeared in 9 games this season and has (yes, this is possible) a worse ERA than Lidge: 7.00. Madson’s season highlight is blowing a 3-run, 9th inning lead against Atlanta and in the process spoiling a desperately-need great start from Kyle Kendrick. The silver lining in all this is that Inquirer writer, Matt Gelb, is reporting that Madson will miss “significant” time due to a broken right toe sustained when he kicked a chair out of frustration in the San Francisco visitors’ locker room. As a result Jose Contreras will assume the closing duties.

The blame for the bullpen’s amateurish incompetence rests solely on the shoulders of Ruben Amaro. He has known all along that even with a competent bullpen like the one the Phillies fielded in 2008, his manager is incapable of using them properly. The only reason the Phils weren’t exposed during that stretch was the unworldly perfection of Brad Lidge at the back end. But with questions of age and declining talent going forward, the Phillies have done nothing to improve the part of their team that is as glaring as a strawberry-sized lip herpe.

While Amaro has spent the better part of the last calendar year pulling his pants down to show the world what a potentate he is, his two big deals have done nothing to improve this team. Roy Halladay is a great pitcher, but the role that he occupies on this team is something they already had covered in the person of Cliff Lee. And Ryan Howard would have been here anyway had he not been resigned to a mammoth contract.

So when the Phillies line up tonight against the N.L’s. best team, Amaro can reflect on the fact that the team they’ll face has a combined ERA of 2.52, good for best in the league. While names like Jaime Garcia (the rookie who stoned the Phillies last night) may not shake down the thunder, the Phillies may take notice of Adam Wainwright, who will start tonight with his 2.13 ERA. Wainwright has recorded quality starts in 23 of his last 24 outings and the Cardinals as a team have gone 12 starts where their starters have gone at least six innings and not recorded more than 3 earned runs.

That mastery of the starting rotation means the Cards’ bullpen is less of a factor, something that gives them a decided advantage over their opponents (they’ve won 8 of their last 9). With yet another question mark taking the hill for the Phillies tonight in Cole Hamels, the tipping point of the bullpen’s entry into the game is likely to be earlier than later. And that, Mr. Amaro, is not a good thing.

Well thank god that’s over. The Phillies, Giants, Bruce Bochy, Ryan Madson, Brian Wilson and the Giants’ outfield all did their best to lose the game today. But in the end it was the Phillies who outlasted San Fran. After Lincecum left the game, the contest looked like two drunks in a sack race. In winning, the Phillies managed to keep pace with the first-place Mets and avoided being surpassed in the divison standings by the Nationals.

Cole Hamels’ line wasn’t all that bad. Sure, 113 pitches in 6 innings isn’t exactly encouraging. But Hamels fanned 10 Giants batters and kept the game within reach. Only receiving 1 run of support in his 6 innings speaks volumes about the motif of Hamels not getting the offense behind him, which may or may not be the reality but it sure seems to be.

To that point, Hamels has received 4.89 runs of support per 27 outs pitched this season. There’s a perception I’ve had over the past three seasons that Hamels for one reason or another doesn’t get the run support he should from an otherwise potent offense. In reality, Hamels has received the following run support totals over the past 3 seasons: 2008 4.72, 2009 4.67 2010 4.89. In those seasons the Phillies offense has averaged the following runs per game totals: 2008 4.93 2009 5.06 2010 5.43. It’s hard to speculate why this may be, but it does appear that Hamels’ outings aren’t endorsed as strongly by the lineup as are the other starters’ starts.

This is a good week for Philadelphia sports because it’s sure to usher in some familiar stupidity. Trending topics right now are the following:

NFL: Typical to the way the NFL has put a strangle-hold on your sports consumption, this week contains yet more all-world hype that has nothing to do with an actual game. The NFL schedule comes out tonight at 7:30 and the NFL draft is Thursday at 7:30. Texas safety, Earl Thomas, is rumored to be high on the Eagles’ wish list. If they choose a safety, the right choice would be USC behemoth, Taylor Mays. But like Todd McShay and Mel Kiper (who are also not employed by NFL teams for the purpose of drafting players), what do I know? And from the “maybe this guy is a complete jackass after all” file, Donovan McNabb has stated his desire to be reunited with Terrell Owens. Huh?

MLB: John Gonzalez has yet again bitten our style. In today’s Inquirer, Gonzo points out how now that McNabb’s gone, Cole Hamels is becoming the new punching bag in Philly. It’s a pretty good point, but like Burger King’s new Sausage Egg Muffin for $1, it’s not very original. And then there’s Kyle Kendrick, who’s slated to go tonight against the Braves. Kendrick is a bad start or two away from playing on the other side of the Delaware River. With a 17.47 ERA in 5.2 innings this year, Kendrick’s going to have to be good tonight if he wants to avoid being traded to Japan for the hot dog eater.

NBA: Playoff excitement.

NHL: The Flyers look to put a choke-hold on the Devils tonight at the Wachovia Center. A Flyers win tonight will put them in a commanding 3-1 position in the series. Keys to tonight’s game: Scott Hartnell not spending most of it in the penalty box and the Flyers’ ability to keep Ilya Kovalchuk and Zach Parise in check. Kovalchuk only has one goal in the series but he has registered 4 assists. Parise has 1 goal and 2 assists. These guys are the Devils’ big guns and if they account for 2 or more goals in this game, the Flyers will most likely find themselves knotted at 2-2.

Looking ahead to the Phillies weekend series against the Marlins, I asked myself whether this team would be good enough to win a series (at home) against a real Major League team. Three games and two losses later the answer is a resounding no. Their stud #2, Cole Hamels, showed yet again that he can’t beat a quality team. While the offense looks great against teams like the Astros, Nate Robertson and Ricky Nolasco held the Phils’ bats to 1 run in 2 games. Hell, even in the Friday night win the bullpen did everything it could (but failed, of course) to lose a seemingly insurmountable lead.

This team is a shell of its former self. People in this town like to walk around and pretend their team is a contender. Still drunk off the intoxications of the past two seasons, fans overlook how awful this team really is. Reality check, folks: it’s been six months since this team played in the World Series. And a year and a half since they’ve won one. I don’t know about you but I’m not going to sit around and look at this team with good-ol’-days glasses on and I’m sure as shit not going to trick myself into thinking this playoff pretender of a team has a real shot at it this year.

With no young talent to speak of, the Phillies front office has dug itself into a hole by trading away 200 prospects for one spot in the rotation. And they’re trying to make up for it by marching out dinosaurs like Roy Halladay, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard in the hopes that fans will keep coming to the park out of some kind of nostalgia. No thank you.

Sure, they’ve won twice as many games as they’ve lost. And sure, they have MLB’s best run differential at +29. But I’m not going to take the bait just because they’re first in the NL in batting average, runs scored, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS and ERA. Yeah, that sounds nice, but they’ve only stolen 3 bases all year. Frauds.

So to all you Kool Aid drinkers, enjoy. You can keep riding high off of old glories on the baseball field but some of us refuse to live in the past. We’re now TWO SEASONS removed from a title. And with 2 consecutive losses under their belts, the Phillies are showing what a house of cards really looks like. I’ve had it with these bums.

The schedule is sure toughening-up for the Phillies. After an opening 3 games against High-A Washington, they’ll turn their attention this evening to Double-A Houston before returning to the Aruban Winter League to face the Nationals for three more next week. With competition like this it kind of makes you feel like Cliff Lee won’t be missed.

Actually, of course, there will be 4 or 5 series this season where the Phillies will have to show up. Most of those series will be against AL teams, which is good because that will give us some insight as to whether this team can win a series with a Lee-less rotation. Before we take a look at how the Phils match up without Lee, let’s just be perfectly honest about one thing: Cliff Lee’s absence will have no bearing on the outcome of the N.L. East race; the Phillies will win this division.

Where Lee’s absence will matter is in the playoffs. I see 4 potential playoff opponents whose top-3 starters are clearly superior to the Phillies (Halladay, Hamels and Blaton) and they are (in no particular order):

• Yankees with Sabathia, Burnett and Pettitte
• Red Sox with Beckett, Lester and Lackey (adjust for Dice-K and Bucholtz if needed)
• San Francisco with Lincecum, Cain and Zito
• St. Louis with Carpenter, Wainwright and Lohse

Now, before you get all homer on me and argue that Kyle Lohse and Barry Zito are no better than Joe Blanton (which they may or may not be) keep in mind that Matt Cain and Adam Wainwright are demonstrably better than Cole Hamels. In the case of the Yankees, their top-3 have already proven themselves superior. And in Boston’s case, you could anchor the 3-spot with 3 different guys. But in both NL teams’ cases, it really comes down to the #2 guys making the difference. That is where Cliff Lee would have come in.

A lot can happen between Game #4 and Game #163. Cole Hamels could have a career year, Matt Cain could tear his ACL…who knows. But as it stands, let’s not worry too much any more about the obvious mistake Amaro made by trading Cliff Lee until the impact of that trade will really be felt. In the meantime, enjoy the season.

A far more interesting and telling game than yesterday’s Phillies blowout win over the Nationals will be played tomorrow night. Aside from the fanfare and excitement surrounding opening day and Roy Halladay’s debut, is there anyone out there who really thought that Doc wouldn’t get the win and that the Phils’ offense wouldn’t hammer the hapless Nats? Tomorrow will mark the first start of the season for the one guy upon whom the Phillies championship hopes rest the most: Cole Hamels.

Let’s assume that the Phillies starting pitching breaks into three categories. The first is Roy Halladay’s presumed dominance in the form of a season that should bring at least 18 wins. The second group is Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ and Jamie Moyer. Their collective ability to keep opposing teams’ run totals under what the mighty Phils offense puts up will determine their success. While it’s true that the last 3 spots in the rotation account for 60% of the team’s starts (give or take) and that each win by Moyer counts as much as each win by Halladay, Hamels and Halladay’s starts will begin to count for more as the season progresses. That is, as the season wears on we’ll know whether this team genuinely has the secret to playoff success: top-heavy starting pitching.

And so the third part of the equation is Cole Hamels. If Hamels has a season like 2009, his wins won’t come in droves as they did in ’08. Nor will his value in a playoff-shortened rotation bode well for the Phillies’ pitching matchups in the postseason. Sure, we’re 161 games from October but it’s not too early to start focusing on Hamels’ ability to regain his form and make the 1-2, righty-lefty combo of Halladay and Hamels the wrecking crew that Ruben Amaro banked on when he cut ties with Cliff Lee. We’ll get a first glimpse at this recipe tomorrow evening in Washington.