Let me start by saying that I will certainly not be unhappy in any way with Roy Halladay as the Phillies’ ace. I argued extensively last season for the Phils to make a move to get him and he is one of the top-5 pitchers in baseball, perhaps made even better in the short run by being a veteran of baseball’s best division. And now Halladay will land in the N.L. which by recent experience should mean he’ll get even more of a boost. From a performance perspective, Halladay probably becomes the best pitcher in the National League going into 2010.

But there are questions surrounding this move and its timing that can’t be ignored. First and foremost is the issue of what the Phillies have given up to acquire Halladay. Because Cliff Lee is gone as a result of this trade, the Phillies are simply replacing one ace with another. Let’s start with the trade that rented Cliff Lee for 12 starts to close out the 2009 season (and 4 brilliant playoff starts). According to mlb.com the Phillies will part with previously “untouchable” top pitching prospect, Kyle Drabek, as well as outfielder Michael Taylor and catcher Travis d’Arnaud. Combine that with the players they sent to Cleveland in the Lee deal (pitchers Jason Knapp and Carlos Carrasco, catcher Lou Marson and infielder Jason Donald) and you have a pretty high price paid for what amounts to be one pitcher.

In fairness, prospects are exactly that: an unknown commodity. But emptying close to your entire minor league tank to fill one rotation spot seems to be a bold gamble, even moreso when you consider the fact that Roy Halladay is negligably better than Cliff Lee. To boot, Roy Halladay has pitched 4 more seasons than Cliff Lee and has pitched exactly 850 innings more than Lee, meaning his treads are a lot more worn than Lee’s.

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I could never figure out why the “Why Can’t Us?” thing didn’t really catch on during last year’s playoffs. If you don’t remember it, well maybe that’s because we opted for more creative and original playoff themes like “Red October.” In any event, the semi-famous phrase was uttered by a caller to an XM radio show and when asked whether the Philles could win the whole thing, he said “Why Can’t Us?” It’s perfect for this town because it’s spontaneous, organic, unique and frankly, a little stupid. Hell, in a town where we’ve virtually banned the preposition (”down the shore,” “done my homework”), that little hint of illiteracy is just so wonderfully Philly.

Another thing flying around last night and today that makes no sense is all the yapping about who will start for the Phillies in Game 7. Both Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels were asked this question in multiple forms after the Phils win last night and (predictably) both seemed confident they were the guy for the job. There’s just one problem: there won’t be a game 7 unless the Phillies win tomorrow night. It’s utterly amazing that everyone (myself included) is patching together dozens of pitching permutations in order to figure out which hurler will be the Phillies best bet on Thursday night. Who cares? As of right now there is no such thing as a Game 7. There is Game 6 tomorrow night in New York and that is the only thing that matters.

I’d explain the methodology of the coolstandings.com game simulations but most of the people reading this site wouldn’t understand. After all, statistical analysis is only slightly below speaking English properly on the list of things Philadelphians do well so you’ll just have to trust us on this. Before the start of the series, the Yankees were a 60.7% favorite to win it all. After the Phillies won Game 1, the Yanks became a 41.9% likely winner. As of right now, the Yankees are an 80.1% favorite to win. The initial odds on the Yankees winning the series in 6 games was a 55.4%. The other two statistically-significant outcome percentages are Phillies in 7 (19.9%, duh) and the Yankees in 7 (24.7%). Because I live in Philadelphia, I don’t know what this means but it doesn’t look good.

I’m sitting here listening to Anthony Gargano on WIP with his marbles-in-the-mouth, over-affected South Philly accent blabber on-an-on about how wonderful last night’s game was. And it was. But it’s over and the series isn’t yet decided. With that said last night’s game gave us a glance at why confidence in this team is never in short supply and why the Phillies can never be counted out.

At the same time I’m curious to know how much confidence people have in Cole Hamels’ ability to close it out tomorrow night. He’s been the one player this postseason that fans have had a lukewarm relationship with. Why? Because he’s aloof, simply put. The quality that became apparent in Colorado in the Phillies comeback and again last night is something that Hamels doesn’t seem to have. He seems uninterested and at times even surly.

His numbers in his first two playoff starts aren’t great. He gave up 7 hits and 4 earned runs in his Game 2 start against the Rockies in 5 innings pitched. And then in Game 1 against the Dodgers he surrendered 8 hits and 4 earned runs in 5.1 innings. Hamels also infamously glared at Chase Utley after the second baseman’s throwing error led to the Manny Ramirez home run blast in Game 1. The Phillies managed to win that game but not because of Hamels. They won because they hung around and out-gritted the Dodgers.

It’s going to take a Herculean effort for the Dodgers to come back on the Phillies in this series so looking ahead, the Phillies are going to need to be close to perfect if they’re going to beat the Yankees. They haven’t faced a lineup as top-to-bottom powerful as New York’s and if they’re going to best baseball’s biggest franchise, it’s going to take great pitching. Right now the one area of concern for this team is what Hamels will bring to the mound. Following that logic we’ll need to see a little more from Cole Hamels if this team is going to reach its ultimate and historic goal.

Cole Hamels is a few minutes from taking the mound in Game 2 of the NLDS against the Rockies. A win today will put the Phillies in a commanding position in this 5-game series. All the skeptical chatter leading up to Game 1 about whether Hamels or Lee should start the opener has been squashed: Cliff Lee’s outstanding performance yesterday means Charlie Manuel made the right choice. It also means the pressure is on Cole’s shoulders as he takes the hill on a beautiful fall day.

Despite Hamels up-an-down season, he does have last year’s brilliant playoff performance to draw on for inspiration. And, of course, Hamels will be watched closely by the Philly fans as they hope he can perform as well as he did last October.

Keeping in mind his NLCS and World Series MVP awards from last season, let’s take a look at his career playoff numbers: in 6 postseason games, he’s 4-1 with a 2.16 ERA. He averages 1 earned run every 4.2 innings and has given up only 2 home runs. Hamels’ strikeout-to-walk ratio is 2.85 and his WHIP is .936. His only loss was back in 2007 to the Rockies. Despite the loss, he pitched well in that game: 3 earned runs in 6.2 innings with 7 strikeouts, 3 hits and 4 walks. His WHIP in that game was 1.050.

All signs point to a great performance this afternoon. And after the hightened expectations yesterday’s game produced, Hamels’ best stuff is what we’ll all be looking for.

Cliff Lee will start Game One tomorrow against the Rockies, Charlie Manual announced today. And Cole Hamels will pitch Game Two. Of course, locals will be up in arms because of their attachment to Hamels and his great postseason last year. In reality, assuming both pitch well it won’t really matter either way. Don’t forget, in Lee’s debut in a Phillies uniform he pitched exceedingly well against the Rockies going 7 innings and giving up 1 earned run.

Manuel refused to disclose his starters for Games 3 and 4 and will announce his roster this afternoon after meeting with players. This won’ be a series won by lineups and strategy; it’ll be determined by execution. If the Phillies play to their strengths and do what they’re capable of, they win. They’re a better team and if they play like that we’ll see them in the NLDS.

We have the 700level.com to thank for this picture of a pre-facial pubescent Jayson Werth. Nowadays he’s armed with a mean landing strip on his chin. I don’t know, I guess he thinks it looks good. In any event, Werth’s 34th homer of the year was of the 4-bag variety last night as he and Joe Blanton (6 scoreless innings) propelled the Phils to a 6-1 victory over the hapless embarrassment that is the Washington Nationals. The Phillies’ magic number is now 11 with 18 games to play.

We’ve all heard it before: the Phillies are an all-or-nothing team, meaning their offense is predicated on the long ball. Traditionally this is not the way that successful playoff teams win largely because their opponents in the playoffs trot-out higher quality pitching than the average seasonal opponent. Whether this holds true this postseason is anyone’s guess. In a season when the 5 teams that comprise the N.L. pennant chase (Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers, Rockies and Giants) have starting pitching better than most years’ playoffs, the home run ball may be at more of a premium this October.

What is going to matter for the Phillies is their pitching. The mid-season turmoil surrounding Cole Hamels’ sub-par season and the Moyer vs. Pedro storyline seems to have disappeared as every starting pitcher has thrown extremely well of late and it looks like J.A. Happ will be back as he’s slated to start on Friday night against Atlanta. As the bullpen’s well-documented problems go, Chan Ho Park left the game last night after a scoreless 8th with a hamstring problem though J.C. Romero’s much-needed left arm looks like it’ll be back in form for the playoffs. According to espn.com, Romero says he’ll make 5 appearances before the end of the season.

Cole Hamels will go tonight in the final sleeper against Washington. This weekend promises to see a better opponent (as least in the pitching department) as the Phils go to Atlanta for 3. Their bats will be tested by Tim Hudson, Javier Vasquez and Tommy Hanson which should provide for a few games more similar to a playoff series than the last 3 outings against the team from Chinese Taipei. The playoffs are right around the corner and assuming the Phillies win tonight against the Nationals, they will have taken 8 of their last 10. Playing well going in is key, and it looks like the Phillies should have some momentum heading into the home stretch

Let’s start with an interesting stat from ESPN.com: There have been only two starts this season when Cole Hamels has thrown fewer than 50 percent fastballs. In both outings, Hamels has averaged more than eight innings per start and allowed only two runs in 17 innings.

Last night’s 1-0 win was the Phils first 1-0 win since August 15th of last year. Hamels has now looked solid in two straight starts, allowing no runs in 17 innings. Is Cole bringing the heat in September or is just that he’s faced two woeful offenses, Pittsburgh and a San Fran team that sat their only hitter, Pablo Sandoval, with a slight calf strain? It’ll be hard to say for a while, as his next two starts will be against the woeful Astros and Nationals. 

Incidentally, Cole’s wife (left) is smokin’ hot.

Perhaps the Cleveland Indians are the National League’s farm team for aces. Last year the Brewers called up C.C. Sabathia during the stretch and this year they parted with Cliff Lee. At least one other person noticed this and wrote about it on espn.com today, comparing Lee’s arrival in the N.L. to Sabathia’s transition from the American League last year. Of course, Sabathia’s heroics last postseason were derailed by a lack of depth in the Brewers rotation and a consequent overuse of his mighty left arm. Let’s hope Cole Hamels shows some moxy and is able to play his role as the shut-down number 2 behind Lee.

After last night’s domination of the D-Backs, Lee has his 4th win for the Phils and looks untouchable. Since his arrival from the City of Departures, Lee has faced the Giants, Rockies, Cubs and Arizona and his numbers give plenty of reasons to get excited:

Lee is 4-0 and has pitched 33 innings of a possible 36 in his first four starts with the Phillies including 2 complete games. He’s allowed 18 hits with 6 walks and 34 strikeouts. Lee has yielded 3 earned runs in 4 games and his ERA is .82 and opponents are hitting .161 against him.

Now let’s take a look at what Sabathia did last year in his first 4 starts with the Brewers:

Sabathia also went 4-0 and pitched exactly 33 innings as well with 3 complete games. He gave up 20 hits and 8 walks while striking out 31. Sabathia allowed 5 earned runs for a 1.36 ERA and a .180 batting average against.

Two things jump out about this comparison. One, the numbers are eerily similar and equally stunning. Two, the Indians traded away two defending American League Cy Young winners in consecutive seasons, both of whom only got better in the N.L. While Sabathia’s singular ability to carry his team to the playoffs eventually wasn’t good enough to win the pennant, his performance from last year shows just how much impact an A.L. stud can have transitioning to the National League (and how frustrating it must be to be an Indians fan).

Lee looks slightly better statistically than Sabathia and plays on a team much better than the 2008 Brewers. Granted Lee only pitches every 5 days but if the rest of the rotation can hold its own, things could look very good for the Phillies.

And in case you were wondering, Roy Halladay is 2-2 since the trading deadline with a 3.30 ERA and a .294 batting average against.

Despite all the disingenuous and idiotic talk last week about a 6-man rotation, what’s likely to happen to the Phillies rotation is that it will be without Jamie Moyer. Pedro Martinez appears to be ready to pitch and may even be on the mound tomorrow night in Chicago (though the Phillies still have a “TBD” listed for tomorrow’s night’s starter). I’m not sure the Phillies thought it would come to this but a spot has to be opened up for Martinez to audition for the post-season rotation and Moyer’s spot is the only one that makes sense for him to fill.

Jim Salisbury at the Inquirer seems to think this is a good idea. I suppose it’s a good idea if determining a 5th-starter for the next month and a half is really that important. The long-term impact will only be felt if Pedro manages to distinguish himself to the extent he deserves to take one of the top-4 guys’ spots in the playoff rotation. You can sit Moyer down to audition Martinez but in reality, Moyer won’t be starting in October anyway, so he’s being shut down simply to see what Pedro can do.

So I guess the point is that Moyer’s sitting in the hopes Pedro will not only supplant Jamie but surpass Happ or Blanton as well. For my part, I’d sit Cole Hamels for 10 days. Despite his bold talk about pitching well when it matters, he has done little to inspire confidence in his ability to beat Matt Cain, Adam Wainwright or Clayton Kershaw in a playoff start. Now that the serious focus is on being in playoff shape, Moyer’s benching would be little more than a human interest story. The real fine tuning needs to be at the #2 spot.

This from an article Tom Verducci wrote last year (emphasis mine): The unofficial industry standard is that no young pitcher should throw more than 30 more innings than he did the previous season. It’s a general rule of thumb, and one I’ve been tracking for about a decade. When teams violate the incremental safeguard, it’s amazing how often they pay for it.

Pitchers generally feel the effects of abusive increases in workload the next year, not the season in which they were pushed. In other words, you might be able to finish that marathon for which you didn’t properly train, but your body will have hell to pay for it. I call it the Year After Effect.

Here’s the way I track it: Find major league pitchers 25-and-under who broke the 30-inning rule…In 2005 and ‘06 I found 17 pitchers I defined as at-risk of the YAE. None made it through the next year without an injury or a higher ERA. Ten of them broke down, the most seriously hurt being Francisco Liriano, Gustavo Chacin, Adam Loewen, Scott Mathieson and Anibel Sanchez. Eleven of them had worse ERAs, by an average of about a run and a half.

In 2007, Cole Hamels threw 183.1 innings. In 2008, he threw 227.1. For those of you who don’t feel like doing math at home, that’s an increase of 44 innings, well more than the 30 innings Verducci writes about. And that doesn’t count the 35 extra he tacked on in the postseason, which means he pitched 79 more innings in 2008 than he did the year before. Sure enough, we’re seeing the effects this year. In 2008, Hamels was 14-10 with an ERA of 3.09. In 2009, he is 7-6 with an ERA of 4.68. He is the team ace in name only, as he is really the 4th best starting pitcher on the team this year.

With 7 starting pitchers and a 5 game lead, would it be prudent to let Cole sit for a spell and let his arm rest? Probably, but the odds of Hamels agreeing to sit and rest are infinitesimal. It’s not a bad thing to be a competitor, but the bottom line is that Cole is hurting the team, and it would do the team a lot of good if he had a fresh arm come playoff time.