Domonic Brown and Greg Dobbs combined to deliver the go-ahead run and one for the road in last night’s Lehigh Valley IronPigs victory over the Durham Bulls. Brown is the only prospect left in the Phillies’ system after Ruben Amaro’s cheap ass burned the entire farm to swap frontline starters in the offseason. Brown represents rebirth in the soon-to-be Jayson Werth-less Phillies’ circle of life.

Greg Dobbs, on the other hand, embodies the other end of the spectrum. He is slowly dying as a ballplayer, slumping back towards the earth whence he came. The ironic pairing of these two opposites in the 9th inning box score of last night’s win just isn’t right in the eyes of the baseball gods. These two are like cheese on a burger. You can’t have life and death sandwiched between two buns. It just isn’t kosher.

A day after signing a contract that could keep him in Philadelphia until 2017, Ryan Howard can comfortably look around and see only Alex Rodriguez in the same room. That’s because A-Rod is the only player in baseball with a contract that pays him more in terms of guaranteed annual salary, on average. As for Ruben Amaro (a GM who seems to relish big-ticket players), he’ll be able to make the claim that this team is serious about winning and serious about its future. But what is serious is the nature of the questions about this signing.

Anyone reading this can rattle off 10 players who are better than Ryan Howard. That is not to say that Howard is not a terrific player, but he’s not Albert Pujols nor is he Mark Teixeira, A-Rod, Hanley Ramirez or Joe Mauer. Most poignantly, he’s not Chase Utley. So why pay so much money for a big-framed 1st baseman that will be locking you down in 2015 to the tune of $25 million? We’ve seen plenty of cases of players like David Ortiz and Mo Vaughn whose big bodies have aged poorly; assuming that happens to Howard, the Phillies will have an untradeable commodity on their hands in a few years.

Furthermore, a front office that admittedly does not use statistical analysis in its decision making process seems to be living in the past with this one. While Ryan Howard’s average has been on a steady decline over his career, his HR and RBI numbers haven’t. And while it’s hard to argue with Howard’s home run totals, RBI is a number that’s the result of hitting in good position on a good offensive team. So why use them to forecast a huge investment in a guy who fits the model for rapid age-related decline?

I’m not going to sit here and argue that Ryan Howard is not a terrific player. But two things come to mind: the first is the fact that he’s going to make $10 million more money than the best player on this team. How does Utley feel about that and how will he feel after his contract expires in 2013? Secondly, why put yourself in a position to be overpaying a 34, 35-year old power hitter who fits the physical mold for mid-30s decline and fits the contractual mold of an untradeable player if that decline does come to pass?

This contract also portends the definitive end of Jayson Werth’s time in Philly. He’ll be looking for Jason Bay money in the offseason and the Phillies will now certainly not be paying him that.

Look, Ryan Howard is an excellent player whom you don’t want to get rid of. But there are very serious questions about how long he will be able to produce like he has been. And with a guy who doesn’t excel defensively (to be fair, he does deserve credit for becoming much better with the glove), you don’t get much for your $25 million if he stops putting 45 home runs over the fence each year. I’m not saying I don’t think Howard should be on this team or that I don’t love the way he hits but experience should tell Amaro that paying the kind of money he’ll be paying Howard in a few seasons is an incredibly risky proposition.

• Philly’s NCAA run isn’t going as planned so far. Villanova barely escaped a first-round departure yesterday at the hands of Robert Morris. Had it not been for a little leprechaun in their corner (or unscrupulous refereeing), the Cats may well be back on the Main Line today sipping on lattes. To make matters worse, Temple is currently losing to Cornell, threatening to make me eat my words.
• Flyers’ goaltender, Michael Leighton, and his high ankle sprain have dealt the team an 8-10 week severance with his services. This could spell disaster for the team’s playoff hopes if backup, Brian Boucher, can’t deliver. He passed his first test last night against Dallas, stopping 27 of 29 shots. ESPN.com’s Scott Burnside chimes in on this latest installment of the mystery of potential underachievement on the part of the orange and black.
• Les Brown at the Daily News wonders whether LeSean McCoy will be the answer at running back for the Eagles. The most likely candidates to join McCoy in the Eagles’ backfield are Saints’ back, Mike Bell, and Raiders’ back, Justin Fargas.
• As for the Sixers, they just plain stink. The conventional wisdom is that their best bet is to keep on tanking and improve their future by depending on the lottery. The problem with that is the fact that the NBA is chock full of shitty teams, so the Sixers’ chances of landing a game-changer in the draft aren’t exactly great. It just goes to show how flawed the NBA is from a competitive perspective: you’ve only got a shot at the title if you’re one of two or three teams and you’ve got even worse odds of improving through sucking because there are so many bottom-feeding teams nibbling at the lottery teat.
• And finally, the team that all of Delaware Valley believes will win at least 110 games in 2010 will face the Orioles tonight in Clearwater. The nice thing for us here at iSportacus is the fact that there really aren’t any roster spots up for grabs so we don’t have to do much reporting. The only real questions surrounding the team are the issue of whether Kyle Kendrick or Jamie Moyer will start fifth and when in the holy hell J.C. Romero will be healthy again. It’s a sign of what a good position the Phillies are in that the majority of spring training talk is surrounding Jayson Werth’s contract and the potential of the team’s top prospects, both scenarios that won’t have an effect on this season. Looking pretty good heading into the season.

If you’re like Ruben Amaro and you’re more interested in players in the farm system than the Major League club, then today’s your day. “Can’t Miss” prospect, Domonic Brown, has hit 2 dingers in today’s spring training game against the Detroit Tigers, one of them coming off Detroit ace Justin Verlander.

This should excite you to no end. When the Phillies part ways with Jayson Werth at the end of the season, there’ll be plenty of room in right field for D. Brown. What you’re seeing today is the future of this team’s outfield. And it looks pretty bright.

Not only does Brown’s promise please the fans, it pleases Ruben Amaro. If Brown does in fact make the 2011 big league roster, Amaro will find himself in his favorite position: able to claim that the farm system needs restocking. He can then justify trading one of his more expensive contracts like Chase Utley or Cole Hamels for 4 or 5 minor league catchers.

The good news for Phillies fans is that Roy Halladay looked strong in his spring training debut against the Yankees. He pitched 2 innings, gave up no hits and struck out 3. As I’m writing this, Jayson WoolWerth just went down on strikes in the 6th inning. Clearly today’s performances are indicative of the fact that Halladay is going to win 32 games and that Jayson Werth is done.

Also to the amusement of Phillies fans and non-rednecks everywhere, Brett Myers pitched 2 innings and gave up a hit, 2 earned runs and walked 3 in his debut with the Astros. Against the Nationals.

Much is being made of the fact that Jayson Werth is in the last year of his contract with the Phillies. Werth is due $7.5 million this year, which will make him the 7th-highest player on a team that has a $138 million payroll for the 2010 season. Ruben Amaro has made a lot of noise about the fact that this team is not the New York Yankees, presumably meaning that the Phillies cannot afford to have more than 4 or 5 players making more than $15 million per season. How this relates to their ability to resign Werth is unclear at this point, so let’s take a look at some of the Phillies’ payroll commitments for the near future.

In the short term, the six Phillies who will make more money than Werth this season are Ryan Howard ($19 million), Roy Halladay ($15.75), Chase Utley ($15.29), Raul Ibanez ($12.17), Brad Lidge ($12) and Jimmy Rollins ($8.5). All six of these players are under contract for the 2011 season and only two of them, Howard and Halladay, are due raises in ’11 ($1 million and $4.25, respectively). This means that the Phillies are committed for about $88 million in 2011 for their top players and $133 million altogether.

Going a step further, Raul Ibanez’s advanced age and free agent status makes him a certain subtraction from the Phils’ payroll in 2012. Brad Lidge (who knows what he’ll be like in 2 years) is only due $1.5 million in 2012. Utley and Halladay are both under contract through the 2013 season so Jimmy Rollins will have to be renegotiated (2012 is the last year of his deal). With the bulk of the Phillies minor league talent existing in the form of outfielders, the need for Werth’s services past the 2011 season are questionable, which may make parting ways with him palatable for Amaro and the organization. But that all boils down to how much money Werth can expect from suitors in the free agency market.

Obviously, Ruben Amaro is better in touch with the mechanics of free agency than we are, so let’s just do a cursory look at what Werth, a career .265 hitter, can expect in the form of a raise. Statistically, Werth is coming off his most impressive season. He hit 50% more home runs in 2009 than in his next-most productive season (24 in 2008). He’s never tallied more than 100 RBI (max was 99 last season) and he’s never had an OPS better than .879. His career strikeout-to-walk ratio isn’t good (just about 1 BB for every 2 Ks) and while Werth does have good range in right field, his speed hasn’t translated that well to his stolen base totals: his best seasons were ’08 and ’09 where he stole 20 bases each season. For his career, he steals a base about once in every nine games he plays.

Let’s take Jason Bay’s signing by the Mets as a comparison. Bay’s contract will pay him $54.5 million over the next 4 years, plus a $17 million club option for 2014, meaning he’ll average about $13.63 million in his guaranteed years with the Mets. Considering Werth is making $7.5 million, should he expect a $6 million raise on par with a guy like Bay?

Like Werth, Bay has played 7 Major League seasons. His career average is .280. He hit the same number of home runs as Werth this past season (let’s consider Fenway Park and Citizens Bank Park to be washes in terms of their favorability to power hitters–two of the smallest lots in baseball). Bay has hit twice as many home runs in his career than Werth (185-93). Bay has tallied more than 100 RBI in 4 of his 7 seasons (119 in 2009) and has a career OPS of .896 which is better than Werth’s best single-season OPS. Bay’s SO-BB ratio is about 6% better than Werth’s. While Bay has a career best of 21 stolen bases (exceeding Werth’s best season), that was in 2005 and he only steals a base every 14 games.

We know the Mets are a relatively free-spending team when it comes to free agency. Considering they are spending less than $15 on Jason Bay (who has had a markedly better offensive career than Werth), can we really project that Werth will be able to command a contract that pays him in excess of $15 million per season? And assuming we can’t, how should we take Amaro’s argument that a likely parting with Werth will happen because the Phillies don’t want to overspend, on par with a team like the Yankees?

Jayson Werth is a very good outfielder who is coming off his best season. But it seems unlikely to me that Werth will command the kind of money that will prevent the Phillies from making him a competitive offer in free agency. So if the magic number is $140 million for 2011 and the Phillies are already committed to $133 million (with all the other top players under contract), it will be interesting to see how far over $140 Amaro will be willing to go to resign Werth.

David Murphy has a good piece on his High Cheese blog today suggesting that Jayson Werth is entering his final season as a Phillie. His argument is based largely on Werth’s expected salary demands as he enters a contract year in which he is all but certain to command a huge raise. The good part about Murphy’s analysis is that it’s based on factors like numbers, comparative value and informed speculation, three things foreign to most sports conversations in this town (the material on this site notwithstanding).

Let me start by noting the obvious: the following discussion is trivial, premature and theoretical. If for no other simple reason that we still haven’t seen Game 6 of the World Series played yet, there’s no way to really say who the MVP of the Series is. But for the sake of illustrating just how great Chase Utley has been so far, let’s entertain the notion that he’s been the the most valuable (read: greatest impact on the Series of any player) participant in this year’s Series.

The Phillies’ second baseman has an OPS of 1.651. That is unheard of. He’s accumulated 22 total bases and his slugging percentage is 1.222. Through 5 games, these numbers are stratospheric. He’s reached base 43% of the time he’s been at the plate. And, as everyone knows by now, he’s tied Reggie Jackson’s mark of 5 home runs in a World Series. Most importantly, Utley’s produced 8 runs with his bat.

Who else has had an impact so significant? Well, Johnny Damon has been the definition of a professional hitter, having drawn-out at-bats in late inning situations. But Damon’s clutch hitting hasn’t resulted in the raw production Utley’s has. Damon’s OPS is .911, not anywhere close to Utley’s. His OBP is fantastic (.435, .006 better than Utley’s) but he’s only driven in 4 runs and has hit no homers.

Alex Rodriguez has also come alive in the past few games. But like Damon’s OPS, his is well under 1.000. To his credit, A-Rod has made himself into a intimidating figure at the plate and while the Phillies may be wise to simply put him on base every time he’s up, his numbers don’t shine as brightly as Utley’s. He has fewer RBI (6), less than half the total bases Utley has (10) and has an OBP .65 less than Utley.

Jayson Werth has (relatively) quietly put up number better than both Damon’s and A-Rod’s. He’s hit for 11 total bases, a .400 OBP and a 1.047 OPS. The only other reasonable contestant is Derek Jeter but his numbers are comparable to or worse than both his aforementioned Yankees teammates.

I don’t think a starting pitcher can be mentioned in this discussion if for no other reason the fact that they impact fewer than half the games. Unless a pitcher is single-handedly responsible for multiple wins, he shouldn’t be in the discussion, a big part of the reason I’m leaving Cliff Lee out of the conversation. For as great as he was in Game 1, last night’s performance should be best described as solid. None of the Yankees’ pitchers’ starts can be characterized as superlative, and while Mariano Rivera scares the pants off everyone, he’s only pitched 3 and 2/3 innings. I’m sorry but that just isn’t good enough when compared against a guy like Utley who’s played in 40 innings.

Chase Utley’s performance in this World Series is the only reason it’s still going on. If the Phillies find a way to get it to a Game 7 and Utley delivers a clutch hit, win or lose his performance in this year’s Fall Classic will be remembered as one of the great efforts of all time.

True story. We’re sitting around Sunday, watching the waning moments of the Eagles game when one of our friends gets off the phone with his wife. He tells us she works at FOX and that she’s been taking calls all afternoon from fans insisting (frequently using obscenities) that the station remove Joe Buck from the broadcast because of his blatant hatred of the city of Philadelphia.

Entertaining the “national media’s against Philly” argument is like listening to Republicans whine about “activist judges.” It’s an artificial, entirely speculative construct that relies for its sensibility on the willingness of people to look for only one side of the presentation.

Like all bad theories, there is at least some truth to the idea that broadcasters will show a level of bias, whether their personal bias or a result of the nature of the particular production. But the real reason people think this way is because they’re used to their home town media 95% of the time they tune in to sports. So when they hear some guy who’s not Merrill Reese or Chris Wheeler or Tim Saunders who (because of their audience) naturally gravitate towards a one-sided broadcast, they think the network got a couple of guys from the Soviet Red Army to call the game. Looking for a national broadcast to be as home-town-friendly as a local one is like hoping you’ll derive as much joy out of having a catch with someone else’s dad.

In any event, espn.com has a MLB front page piece on Jayson Werth today. It’s moderately interesting and tells the obligatory story about how Rays players were afraid to be in Philadelphia last October because of the rabid fans. The article was written by Jerry Crasnick who is from Maine so there must be something sarcastic about its praise for Werth. Maybe there are some hidden messages condemning William Penn or suggesting Hurricane Schwartz is al Qaeda. On the surface it seems like a good read, so check it out. But if you find any of Nostradamus’ quatrains tucked in-between the lines suggesting Philly is doomed, please, drop us a line.

We have the 700level.com to thank for this picture of a pre-facial pubescent Jayson Werth. Nowadays he’s armed with a mean landing strip on his chin. I don’t know, I guess he thinks it looks good. In any event, Werth’s 34th homer of the year was of the 4-bag variety last night as he and Joe Blanton (6 scoreless innings) propelled the Phils to a 6-1 victory over the hapless embarrassment that is the Washington Nationals. The Phillies’ magic number is now 11 with 18 games to play.

We’ve all heard it before: the Phillies are an all-or-nothing team, meaning their offense is predicated on the long ball. Traditionally this is not the way that successful playoff teams win largely because their opponents in the playoffs trot-out higher quality pitching than the average seasonal opponent. Whether this holds true this postseason is anyone’s guess. In a season when the 5 teams that comprise the N.L. pennant chase (Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers, Rockies and Giants) have starting pitching better than most years’ playoffs, the home run ball may be at more of a premium this October.

What is going to matter for the Phillies is their pitching. The mid-season turmoil surrounding Cole Hamels’ sub-par season and the Moyer vs. Pedro storyline seems to have disappeared as every starting pitcher has thrown extremely well of late and it looks like J.A. Happ will be back as he’s slated to start on Friday night against Atlanta. As the bullpen’s well-documented problems go, Chan Ho Park left the game last night after a scoreless 8th with a hamstring problem though J.C. Romero’s much-needed left arm looks like it’ll be back in form for the playoffs. According to espn.com, Romero says he’ll make 5 appearances before the end of the season.

Cole Hamels will go tonight in the final sleeper against Washington. This weekend promises to see a better opponent (as least in the pitching department) as the Phils go to Atlanta for 3. Their bats will be tested by Tim Hudson, Javier Vasquez and Tommy Hanson which should provide for a few games more similar to a playoff series than the last 3 outings against the team from Chinese Taipei. The playoffs are right around the corner and assuming the Phillies win tonight against the Nationals, they will have taken 8 of their last 10. Playing well going in is key, and it looks like the Phillies should have some momentum heading into the home stretch