The ultra-interesting debate over who the Phillies’ 5th starter will be is heating up. On paper, a win by the 5th starter counts for as much as a win by a team’s ace. But no team carries enough pitching talent to put a top-flight starter in the 5th spot. So why go with a 5-man rotation? Simply put, teams have to because the 4-man cycle is simply too taxing on today’s pitching arms.

Enter Kyle Kendrick and Jamie Moyer. Paul Hagen at the Daily News thinks Kyle Kendrick will have to be demonstrably better during spring training in order to “unseat” Jamie Moyer’s spot in the rotation. For sure, if there’s anything to the idea of paying dues in sports, Jamie Moyer is the walking definition. But at what point is holding Kendrick back in order to have a Supreme Court-style seat for Moyer counterproductive?

There must be a reason Kyle Kendrick is still on this team, and that reason must have something to do with the belief that he can be a reliable starting pitcher some day. Kendick has pitched 3 seasons with the Phils and has amassed a very solid 24-14 record, good for a .632 winning percentage. While his ERA hasn’t been great (4.66), neither has Jamie Moyer’s during the same 3 seasons (4.53). In fact, over the past 3 seasons, Kendrick’s ERA isn’t much worse than Joe Blanton’s (4.22).

The point with Kendrick is that he needs to be found a place on this team. Moyer is in the last year of his contract (read: career) and is slated to make $6.5 million compared to Kendrick’s salary last year of $475,000. But getting a bang for the buck shouldn’t really be the point for a team suddenly in desperate need of young arms. If Kendrick does get the nod in the 5th spot and fails, the team can always bring Moyer in to spell him at some point during the season. It’s time to see what Kendrick can do.

It turns out Charlie Manuel would have liked Cliff Lee to stay in Philadelphia. Just like in the case of his wife’s decision to buy expensive furniture, however, Charlie was powerless to stop the front office from shitting its pants. This isn’t exactly a shocking revelation but the fact that he said so publicly is a refreshing piece of honesty, regardless of how obvious that honesty is. It’s like the opposite of the lying nonsense put forth by Manuel’s boss, Ruben Amaro, on the matter. Yes, Ruben, we believe you that given the choice between “replenishing the farm system” and having the N.L.’s best rotation headlined by 2 Yankee killers, the former was a hotter priority. Or that the $9 million they saved by letting Lee go is being put to better use in the form of Shane Victorino and Joe Blanton.

Sure, the manager always wants to keep the star player because that makes his job easier. Charlie doesn’t have to worry about contracts or free agents; he just needs to fill out the lineup card and pat his guys on their butts (and even a circus clown knows that Cliff Lee’s services should have been retained). I would have liked Lee to be back but oh well, I guess I’ll have to settle for Jose Contreras.

It looks like the Phillies are just about done with their offseason errands. They’ve signed Carlos Ruiz to a 3-year deal reportedly worth $8.85 million. Last week, of course, they spent the money they should have spent on Cliff Lee on Joe Blanton. They also acquired a hopefully-versatile Jose Contreras last week for one season. Most importantly, Charlie Manuel resigned his deal with longevity by losing 60 pounds. Shane Victorino’s resigned too, though philly.com’s Matt Gelb wonders whether the acquisition of Placido Polanco will mean that the Flyin’ Hawaiian will be moved down in the order.

And finally, news broke today that Matt Stairs is no longer a Phil. He’s signed a minor league deal with the San Diego Padres, meaning that he’s now played for 11 major league teams in 18 seasons. Stairs’ departure means nothing to the Phillies from a performance perspective but he’s one of those guys fans love, precisely because of quotes like this one: “when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you’re getting your ass hammered by guys-there’s no better feeling than to have that done.”

Eyebrows were raised this week when 2-time Cy Young winner, Tim Lincecum, asked for $13 million from the San Francisco Giants in his arbitration filing. The Giants are offering $8 million. Unlike other sports, in baseball arbitration the decision isn’t an arbitrated amount somewhere in the middle; it’s a process that results in either the team’s number or the player’s being awarded. The current record for money awarded through this process is $10 million (Ryan Howard, Francisco Rodriguez and Alfonso Soriano) which is probably why there’s so much noise about Lincecum’s request (for the record, Lincecum’s salaries during his two Cy Young seasons were $405,000 and $640,000).

The laugher in this year’s arbitration stakes is that Joe Blanton is asking for $10.25 million. Joe Blanton. $10.25 million. Granted, Blanton is a valuable middle of the rotation starter but this kind of request is about as reasonable as me asking for $50,000 for the work I do on this website. But that’s not even the punch line of the joke: the kicker is that the Phillies are offering $7.5 million.

Now take a moment and think about Ruben Amaro’s approach to the 2011 season with his offer to Joe Blanton in mind: if the Phillies are willing to pay the 3rd or 4th starter in their rotation $7.5 million this season (a guy with a career winning percentage of .538 and an ERA north of 4) why in the holy hell wasn’t Amaro willing to drop $1.5 million more on Cliff Lee?

The Phillies are in Florida today and will play the first game of a doubleheader this afternoon at 4:15. I was thinking about that last night while watching the Colts-Dolphins game and looking at the atrocious football/baseball hybrid field and thinking about what an awful place Landshark Stadium is to play baseball. For one, the field will be trashed after last night’s football game. Secondly, nobody ever goes to Marlins games anyway, so the only people who have to suffer from watching their games are those who tune-in on their TVs.

Joe Blanton goes against Josh Johnson in the first game. An interesting stat on Blanton is that in his last 5 starts, he’s gone at least 6 innings in 4 of those games. For a team with a bullpen that is struggling (to put it kindly), a Blanton start is just what the doctor ordered.

And in the second game, Jamie Moyer will face Anibal Sanchez, who is 2-7 with a 4.50 ERA. ESPN has the start time listed as 7:10 and 8:10 so I suppose the dimension-defying nature of the game’s timing should provide some interest. They also have the Phillies’ record as 75-69 in one place and 87-61 in another. Oh well, the game is at Landshark Stadium so espn probably figured nobody would notice the mistakes anyway.

We have the 700level.com to thank for this picture of a pre-facial pubescent Jayson Werth. Nowadays he’s armed with a mean landing strip on his chin. I don’t know, I guess he thinks it looks good. In any event, Werth’s 34th homer of the year was of the 4-bag variety last night as he and Joe Blanton (6 scoreless innings) propelled the Phils to a 6-1 victory over the hapless embarrassment that is the Washington Nationals. The Phillies’ magic number is now 11 with 18 games to play.

We’ve all heard it before: the Phillies are an all-or-nothing team, meaning their offense is predicated on the long ball. Traditionally this is not the way that successful playoff teams win largely because their opponents in the playoffs trot-out higher quality pitching than the average seasonal opponent. Whether this holds true this postseason is anyone’s guess. In a season when the 5 teams that comprise the N.L. pennant chase (Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers, Rockies and Giants) have starting pitching better than most years’ playoffs, the home run ball may be at more of a premium this October.

What is going to matter for the Phillies is their pitching. The mid-season turmoil surrounding Cole Hamels’ sub-par season and the Moyer vs. Pedro storyline seems to have disappeared as every starting pitcher has thrown extremely well of late and it looks like J.A. Happ will be back as he’s slated to start on Friday night against Atlanta. As the bullpen’s well-documented problems go, Chan Ho Park left the game last night after a scoreless 8th with a hamstring problem though J.C. Romero’s much-needed left arm looks like it’ll be back in form for the playoffs. According to espn.com, Romero says he’ll make 5 appearances before the end of the season.

Cole Hamels will go tonight in the final sleeper against Washington. This weekend promises to see a better opponent (as least in the pitching department) as the Phils go to Atlanta for 3. Their bats will be tested by Tim Hudson, Javier Vasquez and Tommy Hanson which should provide for a few games more similar to a playoff series than the last 3 outings against the team from Chinese Taipei. The playoffs are right around the corner and assuming the Phillies win tonight against the Nationals, they will have taken 8 of their last 10. Playing well going in is key, and it looks like the Phillies should have some momentum heading into the home stretch

The Phillies got the series win against the Braves this weekend and probably closed the door on the division, gaining an 8 game lead in the process. While I saw neither of the first two games, last night’s game was a success in the sense that it gave me very little to get angry about (I’m choosing to ignore Ryan Madson). Brad Lidge got another save, the bottom of the order hit well and Joe Blanton gave the Phillies another quality start (he has 18 on the season, only 4 behind N.L. leader, Tim Lincecum).

Given the dimensions of Citizen’s Bank Park, it’s amazing that the Phillies had such an early season slump at home. I mention that because I came across the stat yesterday (a Beerleaguer tweet, I believe it was) that the Phillies lead all teams in percentage of runs scored via home run. 46% of the Phillies runs have come off the long ball, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing but isn’t the kind of approach that traditionally leads to huge success in the post season. With that said, the Phillies did win the World Series last year with essentially the same lineup. Yet anyone who watches Jayson Werth swing the bat knows that it’s not just Matt Stairs who tries to go deep on every pitch.

And two quick personnel notes. As today is the last day to acquire a postseason-eligible player off waivers, it’s being reported that the Phillies are scouting Nomar Garciaparra. Now I know some folks will say the Phils have the right-handed-hitting-bench-player-who-can-play-any-infield-position spot covered in Eric Bruntlett, so chew this information very slowly before swallowing. Also on the waiver wire/rumor wire is news that the Brewers won’t reveal which team has claimed all-time saves leader, Trevor Hoffman, off waivers. Could it be the Phillies?

Despite all the disingenuous and idiotic talk last week about a 6-man rotation, what’s likely to happen to the Phillies rotation is that it will be without Jamie Moyer. Pedro Martinez appears to be ready to pitch and may even be on the mound tomorrow night in Chicago (though the Phillies still have a “TBD” listed for tomorrow’s night’s starter). I’m not sure the Phillies thought it would come to this but a spot has to be opened up for Martinez to audition for the post-season rotation and Moyer’s spot is the only one that makes sense for him to fill.

Jim Salisbury at the Inquirer seems to think this is a good idea. I suppose it’s a good idea if determining a 5th-starter for the next month and a half is really that important. The long-term impact will only be felt if Pedro manages to distinguish himself to the extent he deserves to take one of the top-4 guys’ spots in the playoff rotation. You can sit Moyer down to audition Martinez but in reality, Moyer won’t be starting in October anyway, so he’s being shut down simply to see what Pedro can do.

So I guess the point is that Moyer’s sitting in the hopes Pedro will not only supplant Jamie but surpass Happ or Blanton as well. For my part, I’d sit Cole Hamels for 10 days. Despite his bold talk about pitching well when it matters, he has done little to inspire confidence in his ability to beat Matt Cain, Adam Wainwright or Clayton Kershaw in a playoff start. Now that the serious focus is on being in playoff shape, Moyer’s benching would be little more than a human interest story. The real fine tuning needs to be at the #2 spot.

Jamie Moyer (10-7, 5.32) will fire the Phils’ first shots tonight in a three-game series against the Colorado Rockies. Opposing him will be Jason Hammel (5-6, 4.66), who, not surprisingly, has a lower ERA than Moyer. What is surprising is that his ERA is lower than his near-namesake and fading ace, Cole Hamels (4.68). Well at least it’s close.

Just because Cliff Lee made the Giants look like a bunch of circus monkeys last week in his much-hyped debut doesn’t mean we’re all sold on the state of the Phillies pitching. Sounds like Ruben Amaro is however. The way things currently stand the best-possible playoff starting rotation would be Lee, Hamels, Blanton and Happ. Of course, there are many out there who would argue that Jamie Moyer should be in the rotation because he’s from Souderton. Oh well, either way that rotation is out-matched by St. Louis and San Francisco. To that effect Bill Conlin chimed in earlier today.

I don’t want to get too down on the Phillies. After all, they always manage to beat bad teams (provided they’re not A.L. teams). And I’m really not trying to knock Ruben Amaro; the guy’s done a pretty good job in his first year (see Raul Ibanez and Cliff Lee). But there are big question marks in the starting rotation as well as in the bullpen, most notably Cole Hamels and Lights-On Lidge. Hopefully, when Condrey and Romero return from injury and Pedro is ready to go (whatever that may mean), Charlie Manuel Rich Dubee will be able to fit the puzzle pieces correctly.

Cliff Lee is now the Phillies ace. The 2008 Cy Young winner in the American League will be now be pitching to only 8 hitters per game. In addition to Lee, the Phils get right-handed bat, Ben Francisco. This trade killed two birds with one stone and cost the Phillies exactly nothing. They traded away Carlos Carrasco, Single-A pitcher Jason Knapp, catcher Lou Marson and shortstop Jason Donald. Lou Marson is the only one of the bunch with Major League experience, having played in 8 games for the Phillies over the past two seasons.

Lee is a stud and one of the top-5 lefties in baseball. This is a great trade for the Phillies as they didn’t have to part ways with Michael Taylor, Dominic Brown, J.A. Happ of Kyle Drabek. Kind of makes you nervous that Roy Halladay is still out there, just waiting to get snatched-up by the Red Sox, Angels, Yankees or Dodgers. Or is he?

The fact that Ruben Amaro got a Cy Young winner without having to give up any of his top-3 minor league guys or Happ has to make you wonder whether the Halladay trade is still in the works for the Phillies. This may sound crazy, but the same deal that J.P. Ricciardi and the Jays rejected earlier in the week is still intact. Let me repeat that: the Phillies just got Cliff Lee for nothing and can still take on Roy Halladay.

Maybe I’m thinking like someone who lives in New York or Boston, but if they did do that (if for no other reason than to block Halladay’s trade to a rival), your playoff rotation would be Halladay, Lee and Hamels (in no particular order) and Joe Blanton. For as great as the Lee acquisition is, think about how a Beckett-Halladay-Lester top 3 would be. Or a Sabathia-Halladay-Burnett trio. What about Halladay-Carpenter-Wainwright?

The reality is that some team the Phils will most-likely face in the post season will have Roy Halladay on it. When you add that to the fact the Ruben Amaro is still holding all his high cards, it’s not unreasonable to imagine the Phils’ front office still having some designs on Roy Halladay.

ADDENDUM: Call me a dreamer for making this case, but I’m not the only one: Cito Gaston thinks the Halladay-to-Philly trade is still a possibility.