Bernard Fernandez’s piece in today’s Daily News attempts to paint the picture that the Phillies bullpen is in healthy condition. He centers his article on J.C. Romero’s opinion that “we have some power arms in the bullpen.” The theme seems to be that the Phils are equipped to pitch well out of the pen because they (theoretically) have guys who should bring the heat more than they have in years past.

He cites Ryan Madson as an example, an idiotic assertion because Madson isn’t going to be pitching at all for the next 60 days. Fernandez also notes that Brad Lidge “again seems to have that 2008 zip on the hard stuff.” Forgive me if I’m reserving judgment on Lidge until he pitches at least 4 innings this season. And Fernandez even mentions how Danys Baez has a “plus fastball,” ignoring his “plus-sized” ERA of 6.92.

To be fair, there has been one bullpen brightspot in the person of Jose Contreras, who’s posted a sub-1.00 ERA and has a 15-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Projecting similar numbers over the course of an entire season for the 38-year old, however, seems a bit bold.

Fernandez goes on to cite the Phillies NL-leading 1.58 ERA for the month of May as evidence of their quality, going as far as to use the word “dominant” in equating the pen’s form. That ERA is incredibly misleading however, for two reasons. The first is the fact that the month of May represents only 9 games or 29% of the season. The real number that should be noted is 3.95, the ERA of the Phillies bullpen for the entire season (good for 9th in the National League). Furthermore, Phillies relievers have had relatively little pressure in May: the Phils margin of victory over their 9 games in May is better than 3 runs per game (on average) meaning the bullpen isn’t exactly finding itself inserted into tight spots.

The other reason the May ERA is misleading is the fact that the bullpen has only had to pitch 17.1 innings all month, meaning fewer than 2 innings per game. This is due to the fact that the starting pitching has been terrific and has pitched late into games. Of the Phillies 7 wins in May, only one has seen a starter go fewer than 6 innings (Cole Hamels pitched 5 against the Braves yesterday.)  And even in their two May losses, the Phillies got 6.2 and 6 innings from Joe Blanton. In short, the starters are averaging better than 7 innings per start in May, meaning the bullpen hasn’t really had a chance to screw up.

The point of this all is not to rip the team, but to draw attention to the deceptive and misleading assertion that the Phillies bullpen is ok. It’s a work in progress and it does seem to be getting a little better (helped immensely by the starting pitching and the offense). But before we start the inevitable Philly love fest surrounding short term success (or at least the perception of it) let’s let realism substitute for hopefulness when talking about the bullpen.

The schedule is sure toughening-up for the Phillies. After an opening 3 games against High-A Washington, they’ll turn their attention this evening to Double-A Houston before returning to the Aruban Winter League to face the Nationals for three more next week. With competition like this it kind of makes you feel like Cliff Lee won’t be missed.

Actually, of course, there will be 4 or 5 series this season where the Phillies will have to show up. Most of those series will be against AL teams, which is good because that will give us some insight as to whether this team can win a series with a Lee-less rotation. Before we take a look at how the Phils match up without Lee, let’s just be perfectly honest about one thing: Cliff Lee’s absence will have no bearing on the outcome of the N.L. East race; the Phillies will win this division.

Where Lee’s absence will matter is in the playoffs. I see 4 potential playoff opponents whose top-3 starters are clearly superior to the Phillies (Halladay, Hamels and Blaton) and they are (in no particular order):

• Yankees with Sabathia, Burnett and Pettitte
• Red Sox with Beckett, Lester and Lackey (adjust for Dice-K and Bucholtz if needed)
• San Francisco with Lincecum, Cain and Zito
• St. Louis with Carpenter, Wainwright and Lohse

Now, before you get all homer on me and argue that Kyle Lohse and Barry Zito are no better than Joe Blanton (which they may or may not be) keep in mind that Matt Cain and Adam Wainwright are demonstrably better than Cole Hamels. In the case of the Yankees, their top-3 have already proven themselves superior. And in Boston’s case, you could anchor the 3-spot with 3 different guys. But in both NL teams’ cases, it really comes down to the #2 guys making the difference. That is where Cliff Lee would have come in.

A lot can happen between Game #4 and Game #163. Cole Hamels could have a career year, Matt Cain could tear his ACL…who knows. But as it stands, let’s not worry too much any more about the obvious mistake Amaro made by trading Cliff Lee until the impact of that trade will really be felt. In the meantime, enjoy the season.

A far more interesting and telling game than yesterday’s Phillies blowout win over the Nationals will be played tomorrow night. Aside from the fanfare and excitement surrounding opening day and Roy Halladay’s debut, is there anyone out there who really thought that Doc wouldn’t get the win and that the Phils’ offense wouldn’t hammer the hapless Nats? Tomorrow will mark the first start of the season for the one guy upon whom the Phillies championship hopes rest the most: Cole Hamels.

Let’s assume that the Phillies starting pitching breaks into three categories. The first is Roy Halladay’s presumed dominance in the form of a season that should bring at least 18 wins. The second group is Joe Blanton, J.A. Happ and Jamie Moyer. Their collective ability to keep opposing teams’ run totals under what the mighty Phils offense puts up will determine their success. While it’s true that the last 3 spots in the rotation account for 60% of the team’s starts (give or take) and that each win by Moyer counts as much as each win by Halladay, Hamels and Halladay’s starts will begin to count for more as the season progresses. That is, as the season wears on we’ll know whether this team genuinely has the secret to playoff success: top-heavy starting pitching.

And so the third part of the equation is Cole Hamels. If Hamels has a season like 2009, his wins won’t come in droves as they did in ’08. Nor will his value in a playoff-shortened rotation bode well for the Phillies’ pitching matchups in the postseason. Sure, we’re 161 games from October but it’s not too early to start focusing on Hamels’ ability to regain his form and make the 1-2, righty-lefty combo of Halladay and Hamels the wrecking crew that Ruben Amaro banked on when he cut ties with Cliff Lee. We’ll get a first glimpse at this recipe tomorrow evening in Washington.

Joe Blanton’s start to the 2010 baseball season will be spent on the bench, attending to his injured sirloin. On the day when this news was announced in Philadelphia, the Phillies’ hated rival in Queens announced disappointing (but hardly shocking) injury news of their own: Daniel Murphy will start the season on the DL as well with a sprained knee. That loss means that the right side of their infield will be manned by Luis Castillo and someone named Mike Jacobs.

But that’s not the real gut-grabbing comedy to come out of New York today. The New York Daily News is reporting that because Mike Pelfrey and Oliver Perez have been so awful in the Grapefruit League, the Mets 3rd starter is now Jon Niese. Niese has appeared in a total of 8 games in the Majors, 3 in 2008 and 5 last season.

As Joe Blanton rests up, the Mets will try and salvage their year before it begins. When your team is desperately in need of a turnaround season and you do nothing in the offseason other than acquire Jason Bay, you’re in a position where an all-out fan mutiny is likely. You’re also in a position where you need everything to go right from a personnel perspective. The injury gods have not been kind to the Mets in the recent past and they’re showing no sign of relenting. But it’s the Mets’ inability to address their horrible starting pitching that’s really going to sink their ship.

No, this is not an April Fool’s joke. Joe Blanton’s oblique strain will land him on the DL for 3-6 weeks. That means Kyle Kendrick will be occupying Blanton’s third spot in the Phillies rotation until the middle of April when Blanton is healthy enough to return.

Not only does this injury weaken the starting rotation for the first few weeks of the season but it leaves the bullpen without Kyle Kendrick’s services. The Phillies lineup should be strong enough to outscore any burdensome early season pitching woes (especially when you consider 6 of the first 9 games are against the Nationals and 3 are against the Astros). But the offseason subtraction of a certain left-handed ace may leave them one arm short. Well, at least the farm system will be restocked.

The ultra-interesting debate over who the Phillies’ 5th starter will be is heating up. On paper, a win by the 5th starter counts for as much as a win by a team’s ace. But no team carries enough pitching talent to put a top-flight starter in the 5th spot. So why go with a 5-man rotation? Simply put, teams have to because the 4-man cycle is simply too taxing on today’s pitching arms.

Enter Kyle Kendrick and Jamie Moyer. Paul Hagen at the Daily News thinks Kyle Kendrick will have to be demonstrably better during spring training in order to “unseat” Jamie Moyer’s spot in the rotation. For sure, if there’s anything to the idea of paying dues in sports, Jamie Moyer is the walking definition. But at what point is holding Kendrick back in order to have a Supreme Court-style seat for Moyer counterproductive?

There must be a reason Kyle Kendrick is still on this team, and that reason must have something to do with the belief that he can be a reliable starting pitcher some day. Kendick has pitched 3 seasons with the Phils and has amassed a very solid 24-14 record, good for a .632 winning percentage. While his ERA hasn’t been great (4.66), neither has Jamie Moyer’s during the same 3 seasons (4.53). In fact, over the past 3 seasons, Kendrick’s ERA isn’t much worse than Joe Blanton’s (4.22).

The point with Kendrick is that he needs to be found a place on this team. Moyer is in the last year of his contract (read: career) and is slated to make $6.5 million compared to Kendrick’s salary last year of $475,000. But getting a bang for the buck shouldn’t really be the point for a team suddenly in desperate need of young arms. If Kendrick does get the nod in the 5th spot and fails, the team can always bring Moyer in to spell him at some point during the season. It’s time to see what Kendrick can do.

It turns out Charlie Manuel would have liked Cliff Lee to stay in Philadelphia. Just like in the case of his wife’s decision to buy expensive furniture, however, Charlie was powerless to stop the front office from shitting its pants. This isn’t exactly a shocking revelation but the fact that he said so publicly is a refreshing piece of honesty, regardless of how obvious that honesty is. It’s like the opposite of the lying nonsense put forth by Manuel’s boss, Ruben Amaro, on the matter. Yes, Ruben, we believe you that given the choice between “replenishing the farm system” and having the N.L.’s best rotation headlined by 2 Yankee killers, the former was a hotter priority. Or that the $9 million they saved by letting Lee go is being put to better use in the form of Shane Victorino and Joe Blanton.

Sure, the manager always wants to keep the star player because that makes his job easier. Charlie doesn’t have to worry about contracts or free agents; he just needs to fill out the lineup card and pat his guys on their butts (and even a circus clown knows that Cliff Lee’s services should have been retained). I would have liked Lee to be back but oh well, I guess I’ll have to settle for Jose Contreras.

It looks like the Phillies are just about done with their offseason errands. They’ve signed Carlos Ruiz to a 3-year deal reportedly worth $8.85 million. Last week, of course, they spent the money they should have spent on Cliff Lee on Joe Blanton. They also acquired a hopefully-versatile Jose Contreras last week for one season. Most importantly, Charlie Manuel resigned his deal with longevity by losing 60 pounds. Shane Victorino’s resigned too, though philly.com’s Matt Gelb wonders whether the acquisition of Placido Polanco will mean that the Flyin’ Hawaiian will be moved down in the order.

And finally, news broke today that Matt Stairs is no longer a Phil. He’s signed a minor league deal with the San Diego Padres, meaning that he’s now played for 11 major league teams in 18 seasons. Stairs’ departure means nothing to the Phillies from a performance perspective but he’s one of those guys fans love, precisely because of quotes like this one: “when you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you’re getting your ass hammered by guys-there’s no better feeling than to have that done.”

Eyebrows were raised this week when 2-time Cy Young winner, Tim Lincecum, asked for $13 million from the San Francisco Giants in his arbitration filing. The Giants are offering $8 million. Unlike other sports, in baseball arbitration the decision isn’t an arbitrated amount somewhere in the middle; it’s a process that results in either the team’s number or the player’s being awarded. The current record for money awarded through this process is $10 million (Ryan Howard, Francisco Rodriguez and Alfonso Soriano) which is probably why there’s so much noise about Lincecum’s request (for the record, Lincecum’s salaries during his two Cy Young seasons were $405,000 and $640,000).

The laugher in this year’s arbitration stakes is that Joe Blanton is asking for $10.25 million. Joe Blanton. $10.25 million. Granted, Blanton is a valuable middle of the rotation starter but this kind of request is about as reasonable as me asking for $50,000 for the work I do on this website. But that’s not even the punch line of the joke: the kicker is that the Phillies are offering $7.5 million.

Now take a moment and think about Ruben Amaro’s approach to the 2011 season with his offer to Joe Blanton in mind: if the Phillies are willing to pay the 3rd or 4th starter in their rotation $7.5 million this season (a guy with a career winning percentage of .538 and an ERA north of 4) why in the holy hell wasn’t Amaro willing to drop $1.5 million more on Cliff Lee?

The Phillies are in Florida today and will play the first game of a doubleheader this afternoon at 4:15. I was thinking about that last night while watching the Colts-Dolphins game and looking at the atrocious football/baseball hybrid field and thinking about what an awful place Landshark Stadium is to play baseball. For one, the field will be trashed after last night’s football game. Secondly, nobody ever goes to Marlins games anyway, so the only people who have to suffer from watching their games are those who tune-in on their TVs.

Joe Blanton goes against Josh Johnson in the first game. An interesting stat on Blanton is that in his last 5 starts, he’s gone at least 6 innings in 4 of those games. For a team with a bullpen that is struggling (to put it kindly), a Blanton start is just what the doctor ordered.

And in the second game, Jamie Moyer will face Anibal Sanchez, who is 2-7 with a 4.50 ERA. ESPN has the start time listed as 7:10 and 8:10 so I suppose the dimension-defying nature of the game’s timing should provide some interest. They also have the Phillies’ record as 75-69 in one place and 87-61 in another. Oh well, the game is at Landshark Stadium so espn probably figured nobody would notice the mistakes anyway.