Much is being made of the fact that Jayson Werth is in the last year of his contract with the Phillies. Werth is due $7.5 million this year, which will make him the 7th-highest player on a team that has a $138 million payroll for the 2010 season. Ruben Amaro has made a lot of noise about the fact that this team is not the New York Yankees, presumably meaning that the Phillies cannot afford to have more than 4 or 5 players making more than $15 million per season. How this relates to their ability to resign Werth is unclear at this point, so let’s take a look at some of the Phillies’ payroll commitments for the near future.

In the short term, the six Phillies who will make more money than Werth this season are Ryan Howard ($19 million), Roy Halladay ($15.75), Chase Utley ($15.29), Raul Ibanez ($12.17), Brad Lidge ($12) and Jimmy Rollins ($8.5). All six of these players are under contract for the 2011 season and only two of them, Howard and Halladay, are due raises in ‘11 ($1 million and $4.25, respectively). This means that the Phillies are committed for about $88 million in 2011 for their top players and $133 million altogether.

Going a step further, Raul Ibanez’s advanced age and free agent status makes him a certain subtraction from the Phils’ payroll in 2012. Brad Lidge (who knows what he’ll be like in 2 years) is only due $1.5 million in 2012. Utley and Halladay are both under contract through the 2013 season so Jimmy Rollins will have to be renegotiated (2012 is the last year of his deal). With the bulk of the Phillies minor league talent existing in the form of outfielders, the need for Werth’s services past the 2011 season are questionable, which may make parting ways with him palatable for Amaro and the organization. But that all boils down to how much money Werth can expect from suitors in the free agency market.

Obviously, Ruben Amaro is better in touch with the mechanics of free agency than we are, so let’s just do a cursory look at what Werth, a career .265 hitter, can expect in the form of a raise. Statistically, Werth is coming off his most impressive season. He hit 50% more home runs in 2009 than in his next-most productive season (24 in 2008). He’s never tallied more than 100 RBI (max was 99 last season) and he’s never had an OPS better than .879. His career strikeout-to-walk ratio isn’t good (just about 1 BB for every 2 Ks) and while Werth does have good range in right field, his speed hasn’t translated that well to his stolen base totals: his best seasons were ‘08 and ‘09 where he stole 20 bases each season. For his career, he steals a base about once in every nine games he plays.

Let’s take Jason Bay’s signing by the Mets as a comparison. Bay’s contract will pay him $54.5 million over the next 4 years, plus a $17 million club option for 2014, meaning he’ll average about $13.63 million in his guaranteed years with the Mets. Considering Werth is making $7.5 million, should he expect a $6 million raise on par with a guy like Bay?

Like Werth, Bay has played 7 Major League seasons. His career average is .280. He hit the same number of home runs as Werth this past season (let’s consider Fenway Park and Citizens Bank Park to be washes in terms of their favorability to power hitters–two of the smallest lots in baseball). Bay has hit twice as many home runs in his career than Werth (185-93). Bay has tallied more than 100 RBI in 4 of his 7 seasons (119 in 2009) and has a career OPS of .896 which is better than Werth’s best single-season OPS. Bay’s SO-BB ratio is about 6% better than Werth’s. While Bay has a career best of 21 stolen bases (exceeding Werth’s best season), that was in 2005 and he only steals a base every 14 games.

We know the Mets are a relatively free-spending team when it comes to free agency. Considering they are spending less than $15 on Jason Bay (who has had a markedly better offensive career than Werth), can we really project that Werth will be able to command a contract that pays him in excess of $15 million per season? And assuming we can’t, how should we take Amaro’s argument that a likely parting with Werth will happen because the Phillies don’t want to overspend, on par with a team like the Yankees?

Jayson Werth is a very good outfielder who is coming off his best season. But it seems unlikely to me that Werth will command the kind of money that will prevent the Phillies from making him a competitive offer in free agency. So if the magic number is $140 million for 2011 and the Phillies are already committed to $133 million (with all the other top players under contract), it will be interesting to see how far over $140 Amaro will be willing to go to resign Werth.

pic via Balls, Sticks and Stuff

The Phillies captured their 3rd-straight N.L. East title last night by beating the Astros virtue of the Braves losing moments before Brad Lidge was brought into the game with 26 Astros’ outs in the book. I thought that move by Charlie Manuel showed what a gentleman he is to make a point on the grand stage of the team’s clinching the division that even its most maligned star will not be thrown on the trash heap. Of course, Jamie Moyer’s season-ending injury prevents Manuel from having to make such a decision of the 46-year old but at least Lidge got some time in the sun. We should all take stock in the fact that this team’s accomplishments may well not have come about without the leadership of one of the classiest men in baseball.

The next 4 days present somewhat of a dilemma for Manuel. On one hand, jockeying for seeding position against the other 3 playoff teams could result in favorable matchups/home field. But with the Phillies desperately in need of some rest and lots of work to do on the bullpen, this time is better spent working out the kinks. So expect to see a lot of Adam Tracy and Eric Bruntlett this weekend. I can stand to miss Utley and Ibanez for a few games if it means they’re fresh next week at this time, when it counts.

Jamie Moyer (10-7, 5.32) will fire the Phils’ first shots tonight in a three-game series against the Colorado Rockies. Opposing him will be Jason Hammel (5-6, 4.66), who, not surprisingly, has a lower ERA than Moyer. What is surprising is that his ERA is lower than his near-namesake and fading ace, Cole Hamels (4.68). Well at least it’s close.

Just because Cliff Lee made the Giants look like a bunch of circus monkeys last week in his much-hyped debut doesn’t mean we’re all sold on the state of the Phillies pitching. Sounds like Ruben Amaro is however. The way things currently stand the best-possible playoff starting rotation would be Lee, Hamels, Blanton and Happ. Of course, there are many out there who would argue that Jamie Moyer should be in the rotation because he’s from Souderton. Oh well, either way that rotation is out-matched by St. Louis and San Francisco. To that effect Bill Conlin chimed in earlier today.

I don’t want to get too down on the Phillies. After all, they always manage to beat bad teams (provided they’re not A.L. teams). And I’m really not trying to knock Ruben Amaro; the guy’s done a pretty good job in his first year (see Raul Ibanez and Cliff Lee). But there are big question marks in the starting rotation as well as in the bullpen, most notably Cole Hamels and Lights-On Lidge. Hopefully, when Condrey and Romero return from injury and Pedro is ready to go (whatever that may mean), Charlie Manuel Rich Dubee will be able to fit the puzzle pieces correctly.

Thank the baseball gods for Matt Capps. In his best Brad Lidge impersonation, the Pirates reliever threw a 9th inning batting practice session that allowed the Phillies to complete a big comeback for their 8th win in the last 9 tries (including 91 and 94 mph fastball grapefruits to Matt Stairs and Ryan Howard that led to the 2 dingers). Excitement was the order of the evening as Raul Ibanez contributed to the thrilling finish in his first game back from injury by belting a ground rule double that would become the winning run.

Behind the curtain, though, troubling trends continue. Cole Hamels was awful again, giving up 3 homers in 6 innings. Last night marked the 6th time in the last 7 starts that Hamels has allowed at least 7 hits. Last year’s 2008 World Series MVP now has an ERA of 4.87, good for 40th place in the N.L; going by ERA alone, if Hamels pitched for the Giants (currently the Phillies first-round opponent in the playoffs) he would be the 5th starter on that team.

Getting the Mets, Reds and Pirates at home to finish the first half of the season was just what the Phillies needed to rekindle some confidence going into the second part of the campaign. From the observer’s standpoint though, big questions remain and as fun as 21-run wins and 9th inning comebacks are, what we’ve seen in the past 9 games are wins against sub-.500 teams. On one hand, give the Phillies credit for winning the games they should. On the other, we shouldn’t get overconfident because of a 4-run comback against a closer who is 1-5 with a 6.21 ERA.

The Phillies still have a long way to go before they’re in playoff shape. Their starting pitching needs to improve and we need to see whether they can play better against quality opponents: since June 1, the Phillies are 4-6 against teams with records better than .500  and overall this year, 64% of the Phillies wins have come against teams with losing records. The schedule has been kind to them, no doubt, and for the most part they’ve done their part (after all, they are in first place).

Starting pitching, starting pitching, starting pitching. As great as this offense can be, teams don’t win World Series by outscoring opponents (technically, of course, they do), they win by outpitching them and we know damned well Matt Capps won’t be in the other dugout in October. The Philles starters need to pitch better and Ruben Amaro needs to get them a real top-of-the-rotation arm. If that happens and the starters improve, there’s no reason this team can’t repeat. But if they rest on their laurels and fail to get any better, don’t be surprised if they don’t get out of the first round.

Raul Ibanez went 0-2 with a strikout and a walk last night while playing left field for the Double-A Reading Phillies. Ibanez said “I felt better than even I expected” after the game, referring to the groin injury that’s landed him on the DL and caused even more discomfort in delaying his return one week.

The Bucks County Courier Times says Ibanez should have the 10 minor league at-bats Charlie Manuel wanted him to take under his belt by Wednesday. He is expected to come off the DL on Thursday. The timetable for Ibanez’s return is favorable for him to start for the NL in next Tuesday’s All Star Game. A first-time selection at age 37, Ibanez must be pleased that his groin will be healthy enough for him to accept the honor and play in the Midsummer Classic in St. Louis.

Speaking of Ibanez’s advanced age, the BCCT article cited above mentions an interesting connection between Ibanez and his current Reading Phillies teammate and hot pitching prospect, Kyle Drabek: Ibanez’s first Major League hit was off Drabek’s father and former Cy Young winner, Doug Drabek. Ibanez reached safely on a triple on August 16, 1997.

Because every national media outlet is hell-bent on giving Philadelphia sports minimal and negative coverage, you never want to look a gift horse in the mouth if you’re a Phillies fan. However, Rick Sutcliffe’s article on espn.com today about Chase Utley’s worthiness as an MVP candidate seems a little, um, obvious.

The article reads like a wake-up call to baseball fans who’ve never heard of Chase. True, he is the leading vote-getter in NL All Star balloting and clearly the best 2nd baseman in the National League but to hear it from Sutcliffe his popularity has been buried on a team dominated by megastars, Jimmy Rollins and Ryan Howard.

And again, not that Utley is undeserving of MVP attention, it’s just that he happens to have suffered twice from playing with teammates who’ve had better individual seasons. With that in mind, how can Sutcliffe make the argument that Utley should be be thought of as the NL MVP when his teammate, Raul Ibanez, leads the Phillies in every significant offensive category other than on-base percentage and triples?

Sutcliffe’s article just seems strange to me for two reasons. One, everyone already knows how good Utley is and he is already a perennial MVP candidate. And second, lots can happen between now and then (e.g. Ibanez’s 15-day DL stint) but clearly the MVP on the Phillies (and the NL) this season is Raul Ibanez, not Chase Utley.

All good things must come to an end, at least for the time being. The Phillies announced today that Raul Ibanez has been put on the 15-day DL with a groin problem. Ibanez’s first day off this season came on the final day of the Red Sox series. At the time, the team described the reason for the one day vacation as an irritated achillies tendon. Now it looks like the 37-year old phenom’s body could benefit from a sabbatical.

I don’t know that this is necessarily bad news. For one thing, this is about the best time of year to sit for a few weeks; the lead in the division is established and it’s essentially scheduling purgatory right now. With any luck, Ibanez will heal to near-full health and be able to be productive down the home stretch.

Furthermore, the Phillies have been struggling offensively (Ibanez himself has 6 hits in his last 31 at-bats) and perhaps the subtraction of their best hitter this season will cause the team to step up. After all, Ibanez is out and relying on his bat for at least the next two weeks is not an option so let’s hope they elevate their games in his absence.

• Great article from yesterday’s Inky by Bob Ford about what a bad signing Ray Emery is. It also correctly mentions the exculpatory and myopic issue of blaming Martin Biron for the Flyers’ late season collapse.
• The Phillies look to win one at home tonight for a change, assuming the weather holds up. In case you were wondering, their non-Nationals home record has fallen to 8-16 and they are now 3-4 against the American League this season.
• Raul Ibanez leads the team in batting average, home runs, RBI, OPS, runs scored, slugging percentage, hits and is tied with Shane Victorino and Pedro Feliz for most doubles.
• Harry Kalas has been posthumously inducted into the National Radio Hall of Fame. This after his 2002 induction into the Baseball Hall of Fame as the Ford C. Frick winner.
• On the Dan Patrick show, Bud Selig looked to deflect some of the effects of the steroids era away from baseball and onto football. Choose from any of the fish above and your choice will appear as the picture in the dictionary next to Bud Selig’s name. With that said, it’s always fascinated me that steroids is a much bigger deal in baseball than any other of the big three sports. Wouldn’t it stand to reason that PEDs would have bigger effect on the performance of those athletes versus hitters and pitchers?

• I’d like to take a few moments and speculate/percolate in the wonderment of the Donovan McNabb salary story.
• The Phillies beat the Red Sox yesterday and to hear it from fans, they just won the World Series again. A gentle reminder to Phillies Nation: you’re the champs now; let them get up for you, not the other way around.
• Despite the win yesterday, the Phillies lost the series and have yet to win a home series against anyone not named the Nationals. They are now 13-16 at home and if you subtract the 6 games they’ve played at home against the Nats they are 8-15 at home.
• The Phillies smoked Josh Beckett yesterday. He wasn’t the only superstar pitcher to get roughed up in a NL East game yesterday. Johan Santana had the worst start of his career, throwing 82 pitches in 3 innings and surrendering 9 hits and 9 earned runs in a 15-0 loss to the New York Stinkies. And in Atlanta, Derek Lowe gave up 7 runs on 8 hits, throwing a whopping 80 pitches in 2.1 innings.
• Chase Utley is the overall leader in vote-getting for the NL All Star Team. Raul Ibanez leads among outfielders. A Phillie is in the top-4 in votes at every position on the diamond.

Since I first caught wind of the Blogger vs. Raul Ibanez controversy created by John Gonzalez of the Philadelphia Inquirer, I’ve been amazed at how irresponsible the “professional” sports journalism community has been concerning this story. For one, it’s mind boggling that not one professional journalist questioned Gonzo’s dead-wrong reading of the original article. The assumption has been on the part of the Inquirer, the Daily News and ESPN that JRod (the blogger in question) accused Raul Ibanez of using steroids and Ibanez reacted accordingly. If one actually reads JRod’s post, they’ll see that the question of what is responsible for Ibanez’s career year at 36 is at the heart of the article. Not surprisingly because of the baseball times in which we live, the question of steroids is central to the discussion (mind you, if Ibanez were playing for the Mets and having his career year with them, there’s no way in hell the Philly media wouldn’t have already raised the steroids issue).

What doesn’t happen in this article is the author concluding that Ibanez is juiced. John Gonzalez took the cheap shot at JRod by treating the blog post as if it states that Ibanez is on PEDs. A sensationalist spin on an otherwise interesting look at the stats–that’s what the Inquirer article is. The mainstream, “professional” media took Gonzalez’s bait and in the process linked Ibanez’s name to steroids by making a national story out of this. After all, had Gonzalez ignored the relatively-obscure blog post or even treated it fairly, nobody outside of a handful of people would have read what JRod wrote. So in that sense, Ibanez should be directing his ire at Gonzalez, not JRod and the blogosphere.

In today’s Daily News, David Murphy goes to bat for his newspaper fraternity buddy, John Gonzalez. He pulls rank on the blog world by asserting his profession’s superiority, pointing out (as only baseball writers can do–the most arrogant guild of craftsmen you’ll meet) “the point is that most bloggers are not trained in such analysis” (”basic logic,” as he points out in the preceeding paragraph) and “thus cannot be expected to produce rational examinations of professional sports.” He goes on to wax ad nauseum about the virtues and logical diligence of professionals and the written sodomy practiced by blogging amateurs.

The irony of his self-congratulatory defense of his buddy, Gonzo, is that Gonzalez is the one who showed the first logical deficiency in his reading of JRod’s original story. If you put the blogger’s story on a SAT reading comprehension test, a high schooler would be able to deduce that the story didn’t arrive at the conclusion that Ibanez is on steroids. But that’s what Gonzalez wrote, headlining his story by calling JRod’s piece a “cheap shot.”

It would be a stretch to not agree with the assertion that professional journalists abide by standards that bloggers don’t have to. It’s also true that learning one’s craft to the point where a paycheck can be earned from its practice will, more often than not, produce a better practitioner of any discipline than an untrained and unseasoned novice. But the great irony here is that it was the professional who screwed the pooch, not the amateur. Worse yet is Murphy’s employment of the country club tactic of turning up his nose at the stench of a non-member crashing the baseball writers’ tea party.