Buster Olney is reporting on a rumor that talks have taken place between the Phillies and Cardinals concerning a potential trade of Ryan Howard for Albert Pujols. Ruben Amaro Jr. has flatly denied that any such conversation has taken place, saying “I don’t know who you’re talking to but that’s a lie.” There really isn’t much of a point in editorializing the details of this potential swap because it’s not going to happen. But as the clocks jumped forward to spring early this morning, so too do our hopeful, daydreaming baseball minds. Much in the same way we long for a winning lottery ticket or the opportunity to do Megan Fox’s laundry.

In today’s Inquirer, Bob Ford makes one of the silliest but well-intentioned stretches in recent memory. In feeling an irrepressible urge to make way more out of the Roy Halladay signing than is actually there, Ford writes that Roy Halladay’s stated desire to be a Phillie is evidence of the fact that “the best players in baseball want to be here.”

The article seems to be about how Halladay never entertained the idea of playing anywhere else and that he chose not to go with the money, but with the team that all players want to play for. Never mind that Ford never mentions any other player who “wants” to play in Philly; it’s enough that Amaro inked Halladay for us to now know that every ballplayer has Philly in his heart.

Isn’t the manic phase of Philly’s bizarre obsession with its sports teams fun?

Let me start by saying that I will certainly not be unhappy in any way with Roy Halladay as the Phillies’ ace. I argued extensively last season for the Phils to make a move to get him and he is one of the top-5 pitchers in baseball, perhaps made even better in the short run by being a veteran of baseball’s best division. And now Halladay will land in the N.L. which by recent experience should mean he’ll get even more of a boost. From a performance perspective, Halladay probably becomes the best pitcher in the National League going into 2010.

But there are questions surrounding this move and its timing that can’t be ignored. First and foremost is the issue of what the Phillies have given up to acquire Halladay. Because Cliff Lee is gone as a result of this trade, the Phillies are simply replacing one ace with another. Let’s start with the trade that rented Cliff Lee for 12 starts to close out the 2009 season (and 4 brilliant playoff starts). According to mlb.com the Phillies will part with previously “untouchable” top pitching prospect, Kyle Drabek, as well as outfielder Michael Taylor and catcher Travis d’Arnaud. Combine that with the players they sent to Cleveland in the Lee deal (pitchers Jason Knapp and Carlos Carrasco, catcher Lou Marson and infielder Jason Donald) and you have a pretty high price paid for what amounts to be one pitcher.

In fairness, prospects are exactly that: an unknown commodity. But emptying close to your entire minor league tank to fill one rotation spot seems to be a bold gamble, even moreso when you consider the fact that Roy Halladay is negligably better than Cliff Lee. To boot, Roy Halladay has pitched 4 more seasons than Cliff Lee and has pitched exactly 850 innings more than Lee, meaning his treads are a lot more worn than Lee’s.

Read the rest of this entry »

ESPN’s Jayson Stark is reporting that a deal is “close” but “not done” that would make Roy Halladay a Phillie and Cliff Lee, well, not a Phillie. In a three-way move, Lee would go to Seattle, Halladay would come here and the Phils would part with more prospects. Ruben Amaro has done his best to tinker with the team this offseason and appears to be eager to make sure that his name is relevant every day of winter vacation.

On one hand, Cliff Lee has been rumored to be very interested in testing the free agency market upon the expiration of his contract at the end of next season. If he’s dead-set on that, then nothing the Phillies do can keep him. But if Amaro offered him a whopper contract (something along the lines of what he’ll have to give Halladay), it’s hard to imagine Lee declining simply to take his chances next offseason.

While Halladay is a statistically better pitcher, his value against Lee is negligible. Even if you brought Walter Johnson back from the dead, he couldn’t pitch better than Lee did last postseason. To boot, the prospects Amaro gave up in the Lee deal last season coupled with the prospects he’ll part with in a Halladay deal means he’s given away two sets of young players for one spot in the pitching rotation.

At the end of the day, it’s six of one, a half dozen of the other when you compare Lee and Halladay mainly because it’s really only one pitcher in red pinstripes at a time. Because of that Amaro has given up twice as much for essentially one pitcher. We won’t complain too much if Halladay is a Phillie but the wisdom of what the Phillies’ ace in the rotation costs does require questioning as does a desire to part with a guy like Cliff Lee who went 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA in last year’s playoffs.

After all the speculation, secrecy and denials, the inevitable has been announced: Pedro Martinez is a Phillie. Reports indicate the deal is of the 1-year variety and worth $1 million. Obviously, Ruben Amaro et al were waiting until the only day of the year where nothing is happening to make the announcement; it’s always entertaining to play that game with the public where management lies about what they’re doing and the fans know exactly what they’re doing but everyone plays along anyway. It’s like a mutually-agreed upon make believe drama.

In news of other prevarications associated with this signing, Martinez has been immediately placed on the 15-day DL with a shoulder strain. Everyone knows Pedro is perfectly healthy as the condition for his signing was passing a physical, which happened yesterday. While the DL assignment is simply a procedural move, it goes to show that the “Disabled List” really has nothing to do with a player’s fitness. So that begs the question, why not simply tell us you’re giving a guy a few days in the minors? Why make-up an injury?

Thank the baseball gods for Matt Capps. In his best Brad Lidge impersonation, the Pirates reliever threw a 9th inning batting practice session that allowed the Phillies to complete a big comeback for their 8th win in the last 9 tries (including 91 and 94 mph fastball grapefruits to Matt Stairs and Ryan Howard that led to the 2 dingers). Excitement was the order of the evening as Raul Ibanez contributed to the thrilling finish in his first game back from injury by belting a ground rule double that would become the winning run.

Behind the curtain, though, troubling trends continue. Cole Hamels was awful again, giving up 3 homers in 6 innings. Last night marked the 6th time in the last 7 starts that Hamels has allowed at least 7 hits. Last year’s 2008 World Series MVP now has an ERA of 4.87, good for 40th place in the N.L; going by ERA alone, if Hamels pitched for the Giants (currently the Phillies first-round opponent in the playoffs) he would be the 5th starter on that team.

Getting the Mets, Reds and Pirates at home to finish the first half of the season was just what the Phillies needed to rekindle some confidence going into the second part of the campaign. From the observer’s standpoint though, big questions remain and as fun as 21-run wins and 9th inning comebacks are, what we’ve seen in the past 9 games are wins against sub-.500 teams. On one hand, give the Phillies credit for winning the games they should. On the other, we shouldn’t get overconfident because of a 4-run comback against a closer who is 1-5 with a 6.21 ERA.

The Phillies still have a long way to go before they’re in playoff shape. Their starting pitching needs to improve and we need to see whether they can play better against quality opponents: since June 1, the Phillies are 4-6 against teams with records better than .500  and overall this year, 64% of the Phillies wins have come against teams with losing records. The schedule has been kind to them, no doubt, and for the most part they’ve done their part (after all, they are in first place).

Starting pitching, starting pitching, starting pitching. As great as this offense can be, teams don’t win World Series by outscoring opponents (technically, of course, they do), they win by outpitching them and we know damned well Matt Capps won’t be in the other dugout in October. The Philles starters need to pitch better and Ruben Amaro needs to get them a real top-of-the-rotation arm. If that happens and the starters improve, there’s no reason this team can’t repeat. But if they rest on their laurels and fail to get any better, don’t be surprised if they don’t get out of the first round.

Jonathan Sanchez came within a Juan Uribe error from tossing a perfect game last night against San Diego. He gave up no walks and struck out 11 (and got some help in the 9th from Aaron Rowand in center field) on his way to baseball’s first no-hitter in 2009. To put his performance in perspective, only 5 other pitchers since 1900 have thrown 11K and 0BB in no-hit bids. Unfortunately for Sanchez, he’s the only member of this group to have not recorded the perfect game (his teammate, Randy Johnson, is on that list).

While Sanchez hasn’t had much of a season otherwise (3-8, 4.69), his no-hitter last night is another feather in San Francisco’s pitching cap. The previous night, reigning N.L. Cy Young winner, Tim Lincecum (10-2, 2.33), took a no-hitter into the 7th inning. Tonight, Matt Cain (10-2, 2.42) will take the mound against the Padres. And on Sunday former Cy Young winner, Barry Zito (5-8, 4.43) will start for the Giants. No stranger to no-hitters (or perfect games, for that matter), 5-time Cy Young winner, Randy Johnson (8-6, 4.81), will reclaim his spot in San Francisco’s rotation once he returns from a sore shoulder.

Sanchez’s no-hitter marked the Giants’ MLB-leading 13th shutout of the season. It should also have marked the moment Ruben Amaro committed to do everything he can (if he hadn’t already done so) to secure Roy Halladay. The Giants pitching staff (especially with Lincecum and Cain at the front end) is built like the Presidio for the playoffs. And despite Joe Blanton’s (6-4, 4.44) strong performance last night against the listless Pirates (which Brad Lidge did everything in his power to ruin), the Phillies starting rotation looks shaky and leaderless.

J.A. Happ is the only starting pitcher with an ERA lower than Barry Zito’s (3.04). He’s also the only starter with a record more than 2 games over .500 (5-0). Cole Hamels, the Phillies’ titulal ace, is 5-5 with an ERA of 4.70 and Jamie Moyer is 8-6 with a 5.99 ERA. In fact, things are in such disarray there isn’t even a 5th starter now that 2-game substitute Rodrigo Lopez is hurt.

If the regular season ended today, the Phillies first-round opponent would be the San Francsico Giants (who have 2 more wins than the Phillies). Even the most dyed-in the wool homer would be hard-pressed to successfully argue a scenario whereby the Phillies pitchers could out-duel the Lincecum and Cain-led Giants staff. The Giants have 3 pitchers with Cy Youngs (7 total) and their front two are a combined 20-4 with sub 2.45 ERAs. There are still a few months until the playoffs so for a team no longer content to win a diminished N.L. East, the Phillies front office is going to need to make some noise before the trade deadline and seriously upgrade the rotation. Otherwise, it’ll be a very short October.

Paul Hagen’s piece in the Daily News today sheds doubt on the Phillies’ willingness to super size their personnel moves. The name on everyone’s lips is Roy Halladay, both from local and national media. At some level this puts the organization under the microscope; if they fail to make a strong move, everyone in baseball sees them as unwilling to do what’s necessary. Say what you will about the success or failure of the propensity of teams like the Yankees and Red Sox to spend astronomically, but at the very least it communicates to fans that the front office isn’t afraid to give the team anything it needs.

The question Paul Hagen raises: are the Phillies one of those teams? He predicates this on the idea that last year’s team benefitted hugely from streaky play (both their own as well as the Mets) and that the team was composed with the mentality that if they could make the playoffs, anything could happen. Well, it did and the Phils won it all. But is this team (essentially last year’s) really good enough to weather the swings in the season? In other words, is this team a comprised of a multiple world championship core? If the answer to that question is no, then the front office needs to bolster the roster within the next 3 weeks.

This discussion is taking place because of Roy Halladay’s apparent availability on the trade market. Halladay is a proven regular season commodity (though there isn’t much to go on with playoff experience) and would cost the Phillies multiple prospects and lots of money. And that’s really what it comes down to. For my part, whether it be this October or 5 Octobers from now, the Phillies roster isn’t going to be any more World Series ready than it is now. If Ruben Amaro and the Phillies feel like the foundation of the team is solid (which it is) but there are some pitching holes (which there are) and that we’re as close to a Series as we’re going to be (on both ends: last year’s and this year’s), why not bring in the best player available this year? After all, a World Series in 2009 is as good as what the prospects might bring in 2014.

Brad Lidge will be activated for tonight’s game against Tampa Bay and to make room on the roster, Sergio Escalona has been sent back to Lehigh Valley. I’m not going to suggest Escalona is the next Dennis Eckersley, but this is a signature Rich Dubee/Charlie Manuel mishandling of relief pitching (both from a personnel and in-game perspective), especially when you consider another left-handed arm that is still in the Phillies’ pen: Jack Taschner.

I’m not going to pretend to understand what goes through the Phillies’ braintrust’s minds when making consistently awful bullpen moves. It worked last year because Brad Lidge was perfect; even I could have figured that out on a sober day. But why keep Jack Trashner around and send down a young gun who’s looked good so far this year? Take a look at the comparative numbers (keep in mind neither Dubee, Amaro nor Manuel have access to this highly-sensitive data so maybe I’m being too harsh):

• Escalona: 1-0, 3.38. His strikeout to walk ratio is 1.5. He has a 1.13 WHIP and a batting average against of .211
• Trashner: 1-1, 5.26. His K/BB ratio is .78. His WHIP is 1.87 and his BAA is .297.

With all the speculation about how the Phillies are going to handle their starting pitching woes, it seems a new name is in the spotlight every day, whether it be a big name right-hander or someone from the farm. And with Antoino Bastardo’s strong debut against San Diego, the idea of relying (at least in the short term) on home-grown pitching seems to be a little bit more palatable to fans than I once may have thought.

Kyle Drabek (the son of 1990 NL Cy Young winner, Doug Drabek) is the most recent minor league prospect to be garnering big league attention. Ray Parillo has a piece on Drabek in today’s Inquirer detailing Drabek’s successful year at Clearwater and Reading. Apparently Dallas Green and Ruben Amaro Jr. made the hike to Reading to watch Drabek’s most recent start where he pitched 7 scoreless innings against Akron and topped-out on the gun at 99 mph.

Drabek is raw, only 21 years old and has only pitched one game above about single A. He is in possession of some pretty good numbers overall this season: 5-1 with a 2.24 ERA. He’s got 78 strikeouts in 68.1 innings and has only walked 22 batters during that time. His WHIP is 1.08. Because of his inexperience and youth he may not be the man for the Phillies’ job right now but if these numbers stay anywhere near as good, it’s no stretch that he may find himself at Citizen’s Bank Park sometimes within the next 2 seasons.