Much is being made of the fact that Jayson Werth is in the last year of his contract with the Phillies. Werth is due $7.5 million this year, which will make him the 7th-highest player on a team that has a $138 million payroll for the 2010 season. Ruben Amaro has made a lot of noise about the fact that this team is not the New York Yankees, presumably meaning that the Phillies cannot afford to have more than 4 or 5 players making more than $15 million per season. How this relates to their ability to resign Werth is unclear at this point, so let’s take a look at some of the Phillies’ payroll commitments for the near future.

In the short term, the six Phillies who will make more money than Werth this season are Ryan Howard ($19 million), Roy Halladay ($15.75), Chase Utley ($15.29), Raul Ibanez ($12.17), Brad Lidge ($12) and Jimmy Rollins ($8.5). All six of these players are under contract for the 2011 season and only two of them, Howard and Halladay, are due raises in ‘11 ($1 million and $4.25, respectively). This means that the Phillies are committed for about $88 million in 2011 for their top players and $133 million altogether.

Going a step further, Raul Ibanez’s advanced age and free agent status makes him a certain subtraction from the Phils’ payroll in 2012. Brad Lidge (who knows what he’ll be like in 2 years) is only due $1.5 million in 2012. Utley and Halladay are both under contract through the 2013 season so Jimmy Rollins will have to be renegotiated (2012 is the last year of his deal). With the bulk of the Phillies minor league talent existing in the form of outfielders, the need for Werth’s services past the 2011 season are questionable, which may make parting ways with him palatable for Amaro and the organization. But that all boils down to how much money Werth can expect from suitors in the free agency market.

Obviously, Ruben Amaro is better in touch with the mechanics of free agency than we are, so let’s just do a cursory look at what Werth, a career .265 hitter, can expect in the form of a raise. Statistically, Werth is coming off his most impressive season. He hit 50% more home runs in 2009 than in his next-most productive season (24 in 2008). He’s never tallied more than 100 RBI (max was 99 last season) and he’s never had an OPS better than .879. His career strikeout-to-walk ratio isn’t good (just about 1 BB for every 2 Ks) and while Werth does have good range in right field, his speed hasn’t translated that well to his stolen base totals: his best seasons were ‘08 and ‘09 where he stole 20 bases each season. For his career, he steals a base about once in every nine games he plays.

Let’s take Jason Bay’s signing by the Mets as a comparison. Bay’s contract will pay him $54.5 million over the next 4 years, plus a $17 million club option for 2014, meaning he’ll average about $13.63 million in his guaranteed years with the Mets. Considering Werth is making $7.5 million, should he expect a $6 million raise on par with a guy like Bay?

Like Werth, Bay has played 7 Major League seasons. His career average is .280. He hit the same number of home runs as Werth this past season (let’s consider Fenway Park and Citizens Bank Park to be washes in terms of their favorability to power hitters–two of the smallest lots in baseball). Bay has hit twice as many home runs in his career than Werth (185-93). Bay has tallied more than 100 RBI in 4 of his 7 seasons (119 in 2009) and has a career OPS of .896 which is better than Werth’s best single-season OPS. Bay’s SO-BB ratio is about 6% better than Werth’s. While Bay has a career best of 21 stolen bases (exceeding Werth’s best season), that was in 2005 and he only steals a base every 14 games.

We know the Mets are a relatively free-spending team when it comes to free agency. Considering they are spending less than $15 on Jason Bay (who has had a markedly better offensive career than Werth), can we really project that Werth will be able to command a contract that pays him in excess of $15 million per season? And assuming we can’t, how should we take Amaro’s argument that a likely parting with Werth will happen because the Phillies don’t want to overspend, on par with a team like the Yankees?

Jayson Werth is a very good outfielder who is coming off his best season. But it seems unlikely to me that Werth will command the kind of money that will prevent the Phillies from making him a competitive offer in free agency. So if the magic number is $140 million for 2011 and the Phillies are already committed to $133 million (with all the other top players under contract), it will be interesting to see how far over $140 Amaro will be willing to go to resign Werth.

Eyebrows were raised this week when 2-time Cy Young winner, Tim Lincecum, asked for $13 million from the San Francisco Giants in his arbitration filing. The Giants are offering $8 million. Unlike other sports, in baseball arbitration the decision isn’t an arbitrated amount somewhere in the middle; it’s a process that results in either the team’s number or the player’s being awarded. The current record for money awarded through this process is $10 million (Ryan Howard, Francisco Rodriguez and Alfonso Soriano) which is probably why there’s so much noise about Lincecum’s request (for the record, Lincecum’s salaries during his two Cy Young seasons were $405,000 and $640,000).

The laugher in this year’s arbitration stakes is that Joe Blanton is asking for $10.25 million. Joe Blanton. $10.25 million. Granted, Blanton is a valuable middle of the rotation starter but this kind of request is about as reasonable as me asking for $50,000 for the work I do on this website. But that’s not even the punch line of the joke: the kicker is that the Phillies are offering $7.5 million.

Now take a moment and think about Ruben Amaro’s approach to the 2011 season with his offer to Joe Blanton in mind: if the Phillies are willing to pay the 3rd or 4th starter in their rotation $7.5 million this season (a guy with a career winning percentage of .538 and an ERA north of 4) why in the holy hell wasn’t Amaro willing to drop $1.5 million more on Cliff Lee?

Noted playoff choke artist, Alex Rodriguez, is having himself one of the great postseasons of all time. In 7 playoff games, he’s hitting .407 with 11 hits, 5 home runs, 5 walks, 11 RBI and an OPS of 1.469. Mike Lupica of the New York Daily News seems ready to crown him the greatest player in post season history. Because the Yankees play in a market where media attention is in short supply, you may not have heard that A-Rod’s amazing performance is the driving force behind the Yankees being on the verge of meeting the Phillies ten one week from now in the World Series.

Playing first base on that Phillies team is a guy you may have heard of. His name is Ryan Howard and he was named the NLCS MVP last night. So far this postseason he is batting .355 with 11 hits, 2 home runs, 8 walks, 14 RBI and an OPS of 1.203. Rich Hoffman at the Daily News has some high praise for Howard.

With the Yankees on a collision course with the Phillies, the question arises: Would you rather have Ryan Howard or Alex Rodriguez on your team for the World Series? The Yankees slugger is making more than twice what Ryan Howard earns this season ($32 million-$15 million)

Why in the hell were the Rockies outfielders playing shallow when Howard was at bat? People are going to point the finger at Huston Street, but the Rockies outfielders dropped the ball on that one. The only way you can get burned in that situation is by a double. So why not guard the warning track?

Should Utley have gone to first in the 8th when Fowler hurdled him? I argued yes, some people at my table argued he made the right move, and others said Fowler would have been safe anyway because the umps would have called interference on Utley. 

I’d just like to take a quick moment to thank the Cleveland Indians organization for Charlie Manuel, Cliff Lee, and Ben Francisco. Feel free to keep giving us what you don’t want. We’ll take it. (I still can’t believe they threw in Francisco on the Lee deal. Like Amaro wasn’t going to trade 4 nobodies for Lee if the Indians didn’t sweeten the deal with Ben Francisco.)

Why in the hell was Miguel Cairo playing left field in the 9th? In case you were curious, Cairo hadn’t played left field since last season, when he played all of  4 innings in left for the Mariners. Apparently the 9th inning of a one-run playoff game was the best time for him to get his feet wet.

The Phils need to extend a Laurel and Hardy handshake to the umpires, as the umps seem to be giving the Phils the Yankees treatment. After blowing a call that led to a win in Game 3, the umps blew a few in favor of the Phils last night as well. The one that immediately comes to mind was the tag of Victorino in the third inning, though there was a Rollins tag out of Fowler that was questionable as well. 

Poor TBS. Through no fault of their own they had to show the best game of the playoffs other than the Twins-Tigers epic at a decent hour when both kids and hard working adults could watch. “Our hands were tied,” said a top TBS executive. “We wanted to either air the game at 10 a.m. or 11:45 p.m., but those other teams got swept and we had no choice. We apologize for forcing America watch the World Champions pull off a dramatic win by scoring three runs with two outs in the 9th inning. Next time we will just black out the game and show highlights of the 2004 Yankees-Red Sox NLCS.”

Here’s a pretty wild fact, courtesy of the Denver Post: The last time Lidge was this happy after a game in Colorado, he had pitched Cherry Creek High School to the 1995 state title over Arvada West. That day in Colorado Springs, he beat a pretty fair pitcher named Roy Halladay…He blew off the team hotel for his own bed at Mom and Dad’s place. Some Phillies even came over to see his old room. Some of the Phillies came over to Brad’s folks house to see his old room? God, I freaking love this team. 

Before the game last night I posted on twitter, “I predict a 4-3 Phils victory. I also predict me getting drunk and eating wings.” I was off by a run for each team, but the rest of the prediction was rather accurate.

Mark Reynolds of the Arizona Diamondbacks broke his own single-season record for strikeouts last night by fanning 3 times to bring his season total to 206 Ks. With 10 games left in his season, Reynolds is a lock to add to this whopping total. The things about Reynolds is that he is batting .266 with 43 homers, 24 stolen bases and 74 walks. This got me to thinking about how significant a detracting factor an excessive strikeout total can be when compared against a player who is very productive in other departments. For example, even with his 200+ strikeouts, Reynolds’ OPS is .919 which is pretty damned good.

As everyone knows, Ryan Howard occupies the 3rd and 4th spots on the same all-time strikeouts list that Reynolds heads. With 176 Ks so far this year and 12 games to play, it looks as if Howard won’t eclipse his mark of 199 strikeouts this season. He has 41 home runs this season and an OPS of .911, slightly worse than Mark Reynolds. With 70 walks and only 7 stolen bases, Howard’s only statistical edge on Reynolds is fewer strikeouts.

Granted, this is not Howard’s best year in terms of power production but when you consider he’s finished in the top-5 in MVP voting each of the past 3 years while posting these colossal strikeout/power numbers, it puts into perspective just how good of a player Reynolds is, regardless of the fact people think of him as a strikeout artist and not as a home run king like Howard.

On the flip side, consider how incredible Albert Pujols’ power numbers are when taken against his strikeouts: Pujols has 47 homers this season, more than both Howard and Reynolds and yet he’s struck out exactly 61 times, meaning Howard and Reynolds fan 3-times as frequently as Pujols and still trail him dingers. Add that to Pujols’ .311 batting average, 129 RBI and 1.127 OPS and you don’t have to wonder at all about the HR-SO question.

In fact, it’s no longer the case but as of Sep. 13, Pujols had hit 45 home runs, 2 more than his total of 43 strikeouts at that time. This put him in the company of only 6 other players in baseball history to have hit 40+ home runs and have strikeout totals less than their home run totals. They are Mel Ott, Lou Gehrig, Joe DiMaggio, Johnny Mize, Ted Kluszewski and Barry Bonds. Pretty impressive company.

Because we live in a city where the equilibrium of the collective sports mentality is as stable as Stephon Marbury, people are panicking about the Phils’ recent slump. Sure, they are coming off a 4-game sweep at the hands of the lowly Astros. And with the notable exception of Ryan Howard, the team is in a huge offensive slump (Cliff Lee has the best batting average on the team, .316, followed by Shane Victorino’s .295). Let’s not even mention the closer spot–Bob Ford has an unusual take on it–or the worst bench in the National League (Matt Stairs is now 0-29 since the A.S. Break).

All these things considered, this is exactly what baseball is. A 162-game season. Teams ride huge winning streaks and lose games in droves too. When you consider the Phillies are a long ball team, you understand that when the big bats are cold the team is going to struggle. Hell, even the Yankees (indisputably the best team in baseball) have a 4-game losing stretch on their record. The Phillies are still projected to win 93 games, worse only than the 94 and 96 likely wins for the Cardinals and Dodgers, respectively. More importantly, they have an almost 95% chance of winning the N.L. East (stats projections from coolstandings.com).

Their performance against the Astros this past weekend was bad but they did manage to only lose 3 of the last 4 games by 1-run margins against a Houston team that is a deceptive 9-games over .500 at home.  What’s more, the promise of a turnaround is on the horizon as the next 10 games are against the Nats and Mets, two teams collectively 56 games under .500.

The results haven’t been thrilling lately but the commanding position the Phils occupy allows them to tinker where necessary, try new things in other spots and also be patient where they can be. Winning 2 consecutive World Series is a very tall order and there’s a reason no N.L. team has done it in over 30 years. If the Phillies are going to pull it off they’re going to have to play better baseball but from where they currently stand, there’s no reason to think that next week at this time folks will be singing a different tune.

Well, the Mets have committed 3 errors through 5.2 innings and Bobby Parnell lasted 5 innings, giving up 5 runs (as I predicted yesterday). The Mets solution was to insert 40-year old rookie, Ken Takahashi to stop the bleeding. Surprisingly, Takahashi managed to get out of a bases-loaded jam by (what else?) striking out Ryan Howard.

On the positive side, Cliff Lee is through 5 innings and has given up 4 hits and 0 earned runs. His ERA is at .71. He is ridiculous. And news just came down the wire that Jayson Werth has been named National League player of the week.

Johnny Goodtimes is at the game so I don’t want to steal his thunder by doing a Pulitzer-caliber reporting job on the game, as he’s sure to give us an entralling recap of his experience. So I guess I’ll cut out.

But one question before I leave: why, on the 1210 WPHT radio broadcast do they run an ad for Rush Limbaugh’s show where Limbaugh describes himself as a  “talent on loan from God?” What the hell is that?

• How much longer do we have to entertain the idea that Brett Myers is an integral part of this team? Everyone seems willing to cut him slack when he’s acting like a Northern Floridian (wife beating, rednecking, bar brawling) but the thing that amazes me is how people seem to always think he’s going to be the answer to the Phillies’ pitching woes. For a guy with a career ERA of 4.39 (4.43 in the playoffs), he’s a pitcher I’d just assume let drift off to sea quietly.
• Remember all that talk about what a lock the Phillies are to win the N.L. East? Well, according to the coolstandings.com season simulation, of current division leaders, only Detroit is less of a lock to win their division than the Phillies. The simulation also shows that the Phillies rank 5 out of 6 (with the Tigers last again) among current division leaders’ likeliness to make the playoffs altogether.
• For all the fanfare surrounding Pedro Martinez’s start against the Cubs last Wednesday (7 hits, 5 IP, 3 ER), he offered little more than a Jamie Moyer start. The big knock against Moyer has been his inability to go late into games; this is exactly the same m.o. Pedro has (remember how Grady Little’s decision to keep a tired Pedro in too long in Game 7 cost Boston the 2003 ALCS, and Little his job?). Here’s to hoping his performance tonight against Jon Garland and the D-Backs tonight shows some improvement.
• For the first time in the past 4 seasons, Ryan Howard is not leading the National League in any significant category (including strikeouts, though he’s on pace to K 199 times this year, matching his career high from 2007). The good news: in the past 2 series (6 games against the Cubs and Braves), Howard is hitting .381 with 4 home runs in 24 at-bats with only 5 strikeouts. And he also has a triple on his card during this stretch, helping to give him an unwordly 1.548 OPS.

Last night Cole Hamels was magnificent against the Diamondbacks. Despite the fact they’re an awful team, Hamels’ line was dominating: 8 innings, 4 hits allowed, 1 earned run with a 9 strikeout to 0 walk ratio. Hamels’ last three starts have yielded equally gawdy numbers. He’s 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA, a 1.67 BAA and a 20 strikeout to 3 walk ratio. Granted, 2 of those outings were against San Diego and Arizona (and the 3rd against Florida) but at least Hamels is finding a comfort zone and winning games. As we approach the homestretch that’s what it’s all about.

Colebert Richard Hamels’ improved pitching may turn out to be for naught. As would the acquisition of Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay or Walter Johnson for that matter. The reason? Brad Lidge. Lidge did his best to blow yet another save last night as he gave up a 2-run homer in the bottom of the ninth that almost landed in the Grand Canyon. Ironically, it was hit by Mark Reynolds, the only man in MLB history to strike out more times in a season than Ryan Howard.

Come to think of it, the decisive stat that may make the Phillies willing to trade for Halladay after all is his 44 career complete games. Seriously, if Brad Lidge is going to continue to be this bad, you may need a pitcher who can close his own starts. Last year, Lidge’s ERA was 1.95 during his “perfect season.” This year it is 7.11. If the Phillies want to experience anything like they did last October, Ruben Amaro may well be as busy before Friday finding a closer as he is trying to find a starter.

Ryan Howard hit his 200th career home run Thursday night off Chris Volstad and the Florida Marlins. It was Howard’s 23rd home run of the season and his 23rd career dinger against the Marlins and it put him only 4 home runs behind Dick Allen for 7th place on the Phillies’ all-time list. In doing so, Howard leap-frogged Ralph Kiner as the player to have reached 200 home runs in the fewest games played (658).

How many home runs Howard will hit in his career is anyone’s guess. Much is made of the fact that he didn’t debut in the Bigs until he was 24 and that he has the body type that is not known for its playing longevity. Assuming he plays another 10 seasons (when he’ll be 39) and he hits around 30 home runs per year, he should end his career above 500 HRs which would make him a member of the most elite power-hitting club in baseball history. Of course, hitting 300 home runs in one’s 30s is assuming a lot but Howard does play in a ballpark that is built for the long ball (though it’s said that exactly half of his 200 home runs so far have been hit on the road). And if his hips start turning a little more slowly in the years to come, there is always the American League.

What we do know about Howard is what he’s already done and in his 6 Major League seasons he’s put up some interesting numbers. Take a look at a few of them:

• If anything bodes well for Howard’s longevity, it’s the fact he’s played in 159, 144 and 162 games in each of the past 3 seasons and he’s appeared in every game but 1 so far this season (88 total). All signs indicate his big body isn’t injury prone and that he won’t be dragging any major, chronic injuries into his 30s.
• For his career, Howard strikes out 2.13 times as many times as he walks. When you consider how much he walks (over 100 BBs both of the past 2 seasons, good for 4th in the N.L. both seasons), it’s no surprise he’s 2nd, 3rd and 17th on the all-time single season strikeout list (Mark Reynolds holds the record with 204 Ks).
• The big man was 2nd in the National League in 2006 and 2007 in intentional walks and was 6th in that category last season. For their careers, only 15 active players have more intentional free passes than Howard. When you add that to the fact that he’s been 1st in home runs per plate appearance in each of the last 3 seasons, you’re looking at a guy who (despite the highly-publicized strikeouts) is an incredibly efficient and feared hitter.
• Since 2005 Howard has won a Rookie of the Year (’05), an MVP (’06), two Home Run titles (’06 and ‘08) and was 2nd in MVP voting last year. Howard has ranked in the top 3 in RBI in each of the past 3 seasons and is 3rd in the N.L. currently.

If anything portends Howard’s inclusion in the 500 home run club, it’s the efficiency with which he’s accumulated his numbers. The biggest challenge for Howard is going to be father time but when you consider the short time in which he’s put together the numbers he has, he’s as good a candidate as anyone to get there.