Eyebrows were raised this week when 2-time Cy Young winner, Tim Lincecum, asked for $13 million from the San Francisco Giants in his arbitration filing. The Giants are offering $8 million. Unlike other sports, in baseball arbitration the decision isn’t an arbitrated amount somewhere in the middle; it’s a process that results in either the team’s number or the player’s being awarded. The current record for money awarded through this process is $10 million (Ryan Howard, Francisco Rodriguez and Alfonso Soriano) which is probably why there’s so much noise about Lincecum’s request (for the record, Lincecum’s salaries during his two Cy Young seasons were $405,000 and $640,000).

The laugher in this year’s arbitration stakes is that Joe Blanton is asking for $10.25 million. Joe Blanton. $10.25 million. Granted, Blanton is a valuable middle of the rotation starter but this kind of request is about as reasonable as me asking for $50,000 for the work I do on this website. But that’s not even the punch line of the joke: the kicker is that the Phillies are offering $7.5 million.

Now take a moment and think about Ruben Amaro’s approach to the 2011 season with his offer to Joe Blanton in mind: if the Phillies are willing to pay the 3rd or 4th starter in their rotation $7.5 million this season (a guy with a career winning percentage of .538 and an ERA north of 4) why in the holy hell wasn’t Amaro willing to drop $1.5 million more on Cliff Lee?

We have the 700level.com to thank for this picture of a pre-facial pubescent Jayson Werth. Nowadays he’s armed with a mean landing strip on his chin. I don’t know, I guess he thinks it looks good. In any event, Werth’s 34th homer of the year was of the 4-bag variety last night as he and Joe Blanton (6 scoreless innings) propelled the Phils to a 6-1 victory over the hapless embarrassment that is the Washington Nationals. The Phillies’ magic number is now 11 with 18 games to play.

We’ve all heard it before: the Phillies are an all-or-nothing team, meaning their offense is predicated on the long ball. Traditionally this is not the way that successful playoff teams win largely because their opponents in the playoffs trot-out higher quality pitching than the average seasonal opponent. Whether this holds true this postseason is anyone’s guess. In a season when the 5 teams that comprise the N.L. pennant chase (Phillies, Cardinals, Dodgers, Rockies and Giants) have starting pitching better than most years’ playoffs, the home run ball may be at more of a premium this October.

What is going to matter for the Phillies is their pitching. The mid-season turmoil surrounding Cole Hamels’ sub-par season and the Moyer vs. Pedro storyline seems to have disappeared as every starting pitcher has thrown extremely well of late and it looks like J.A. Happ will be back as he’s slated to start on Friday night against Atlanta. As the bullpen’s well-documented problems go, Chan Ho Park left the game last night after a scoreless 8th with a hamstring problem though J.C. Romero’s much-needed left arm looks like it’ll be back in form for the playoffs. According to espn.com, Romero says he’ll make 5 appearances before the end of the season.

Cole Hamels will go tonight in the final sleeper against Washington. This weekend promises to see a better opponent (as least in the pitching department) as the Phils go to Atlanta for 3. Their bats will be tested by Tim Hudson, Javier Vasquez and Tommy Hanson which should provide for a few games more similar to a playoff series than the last 3 outings against the team from Chinese Taipei. The playoffs are right around the corner and assuming the Phillies win tonight against the Nationals, they will have taken 8 of their last 10. Playing well going in is key, and it looks like the Phillies should have some momentum heading into the home stretch

It has been said by many (including me) that the San Francisco Giants are the team nobody wants to face in a 5-game playoff series because of their frontmen, Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain. After listening to their 10-inning loss to the Reds today, I’m changing my tune. The San Francisco Giants’ offense is so colossally inept that they’re exactly the team you’d like to see in any playoff series.

Matt Cain started the game today and pitched 8 innings and yielded 1 run. And he didn’t get a decision. In fact, in Cain’s last 4 starts his ERA of 2.77 and 30.1 innings pitched are good for exactly no wins. Cain lowered his ERA after today’s game from 2.49 to 2.43 on the season. His reward? One run of support from his offense while leaving 10 runners on base. And that was against a Reds team that ranks 11th in the N.L. in team ERA.

The Giants offense is a disgrace. They have scored only 481 runs on the season, better only than the Padres and the Reds, a team against whom they’ve scored exactly 2 runs in their last two games. Sure, they have the best team ERA in the N.L. but their run differential (+39) is the third-worst in the N.L. amongst teams with positive differentials (read: playoff contenders).

Yes, pitching wins in the playoffs but that cliche assumes the team for which the better pitching belongs can score at least one run. In the Giants’ case, that may be too much to ask. And, by the way, the Giants have the second fewest road wins of +.500 teams in the National League (only the Cubs have fewer). Which means if they do manage to make the playoffs, it will be as a wild card, thus they won’t have home field advantage. At 8-games under .500 away from Rice-a-Roni town, that doesn’t bode well for the prospect of them winning 3 games in a N.L.D.S.

Perhaps the Cleveland Indians are the National League’s farm team for aces. Last year the Brewers called up C.C. Sabathia during the stretch and this year they parted with Cliff Lee. At least one other person noticed this and wrote about it on espn.com today, comparing Lee’s arrival in the N.L. to Sabathia’s transition from the American League last year. Of course, Sabathia’s heroics last postseason were derailed by a lack of depth in the Brewers rotation and a consequent overuse of his mighty left arm. Let’s hope Cole Hamels shows some moxy and is able to play his role as the shut-down number 2 behind Lee.

After last night’s domination of the D-Backs, Lee has his 4th win for the Phils and looks untouchable. Since his arrival from the City of Departures, Lee has faced the Giants, Rockies, Cubs and Arizona and his numbers give plenty of reasons to get excited:

Lee is 4-0 and has pitched 33 innings of a possible 36 in his first four starts with the Phillies including 2 complete games. He’s allowed 18 hits with 6 walks and 34 strikeouts. Lee has yielded 3 earned runs in 4 games and his ERA is .82 and opponents are hitting .161 against him.

Now let’s take a look at what Sabathia did last year in his first 4 starts with the Brewers:

Sabathia also went 4-0 and pitched exactly 33 innings as well with 3 complete games. He gave up 20 hits and 8 walks while striking out 31. Sabathia allowed 5 earned runs for a 1.36 ERA and a .180 batting average against.

Two things jump out about this comparison. One, the numbers are eerily similar and equally stunning. Two, the Indians traded away two defending American League Cy Young winners in consecutive seasons, both of whom only got better in the N.L. While Sabathia’s singular ability to carry his team to the playoffs eventually wasn’t good enough to win the pennant, his performance from last year shows just how much impact an A.L. stud can have transitioning to the National League (and how frustrating it must be to be an Indians fan).

Lee looks slightly better statistically than Sabathia and plays on a team much better than the 2008 Brewers. Granted Lee only pitches every 5 days but if the rest of the rotation can hold its own, things could look very good for the Phillies.

And in case you were wondering, Roy Halladay is 2-2 since the trading deadline with a 3.30 ERA and a .294 batting average against.

Jamie Moyer (10-7, 5.32) will fire the Phils’ first shots tonight in a three-game series against the Colorado Rockies. Opposing him will be Jason Hammel (5-6, 4.66), who, not surprisingly, has a lower ERA than Moyer. What is surprising is that his ERA is lower than his near-namesake and fading ace, Cole Hamels (4.68). Well at least it’s close.

Just because Cliff Lee made the Giants look like a bunch of circus monkeys last week in his much-hyped debut doesn’t mean we’re all sold on the state of the Phillies pitching. Sounds like Ruben Amaro is however. The way things currently stand the best-possible playoff starting rotation would be Lee, Hamels, Blanton and Happ. Of course, there are many out there who would argue that Jamie Moyer should be in the rotation because he’s from Souderton. Oh well, either way that rotation is out-matched by St. Louis and San Francisco. To that effect Bill Conlin chimed in earlier today.

I don’t want to get too down on the Phillies. After all, they always manage to beat bad teams (provided they’re not A.L. teams). And I’m really not trying to knock Ruben Amaro; the guy’s done a pretty good job in his first year (see Raul Ibanez and Cliff Lee). But there are big question marks in the starting rotation as well as in the bullpen, most notably Cole Hamels and Lights-On Lidge. Hopefully, when Condrey and Romero return from injury and Pedro is ready to go (whatever that may mean), Charlie Manuel Rich Dubee will be able to fit the puzzle pieces correctly.

The margin for error in Major League Baseball is pretty small. The difference between good teams and bad teams, between making the playoffs or not; often it’s simply a matter of inches, as the old cliche goes. Of course, the most even number of all is .500, a number both mediocre as a reflection of a team’s winning percentage and unattainable as an individual’s batting average.

As you might expect, there’s a lot of evenness as this number applies to the standings. Of the 3o Major League teams, exactly 16 teams currently have records better than .500 (a better-than-.500 number of teams, but only by the slightest of margins). Not surprisingly, 8 of these teams play in the N.L. and 8 of them are A.L. teams (the N.L. does have two more teams than the A.L).

As it applies to the Phillies, they are 25-24 this season against teams better than .500 (better than .500 in this category by the slightest of margins) and as you might expect, they are far better against teams under .500 (34-20). If you include their most recent series against the San Francisco Giants, they Phillies are in the midst of a 16-game stretch against teams over .500. Needless to say, their 1-3 start is under .500 but no matter, their next twelve games against the Rockies, Marlins, Cubs and Braves (all over .500) are (you guessed it) an exact .500 split between playing at home and on the road.

As for individuals, in the past 10 days the best batting average in the Majors (based on 45 plate appearances) belongs to Matt Holliday (.526). In a convenient twist of .500 fate, he was traded to the Cardinals who are the only team in baseball with a home or road record of exactly .500 (27-27 on the road).

Well, aside from the promising start Cliff Lee gave the Phillies on Friday, there wasn’t much encouraging to come out of San Francisco this weekend as the Phillies dropped their series with the Giants. Aside from the strength of the Giants starting pitching (heck, it could have been a sweep if Matt Cain had started one of the games), maybe the biggest contributor to the Giants series win didn’t even wear a uniform: AT&T Park is not the place the Phillies want to play in a 5-game NLDS.

That ballpark does not suit the Phillies. One of the reasons a pitcher like Tim Lincecum is able to have so much success at a place like AT&T is that he’s not succeptible to big innings by the opposition because the place is so huge. A home run here, a double there; Lincecum and the Giants staff has an easier time containing rallies by opponents (especially opponents who rely heavily on the long ball like the Phillies) because that outfield eats-up home runs.

The dimensions of that park put a lot of pressure on visiting pitchers to not fall behind; sure, the Giants don’t score a lot of runs but few teams do score loads of runs in cavernous parks. The Giants lineup isn’t studded with power hitters because frankly, those guys don’t do well there (sure, Barry Bonds thrived there but he’s an exception to just about every power rule in baseball history). Small ball teams like San Fran aren’t going to score a lot of runs there but so far, they’re doing just fine at McCovey Cove.

With the Giants starting pitching, the ballpark accounts for a big reason they have the most home wins in baseball (37). If Barry Zito is on (which he was yesterday), there is no more formidable top-3 in the N.L. than Lincecum-Cain-Zito. In a 5-game series, that spells big problems for power hitting teams. If a first-round matchup between these 2 team were to transpire, it’d be interesting to see how Charlie Manuel and Bruce Bochy would manage their starters according to the two diametrically-opposed ballparks. After this weekend, though, that’s a theoretical I might prefer to leave in the realm of imagination.

It is universally agreed upon that Cliff Lee’s opening performance last night against San Francisco was dazzling. To be fair, the Giants are a poor offensive team who have scored more runs than only one team in the N.L., the Padres. And it’s only one game. But what a game it was.

Lee pitched 9 complete innings (we’re not used to that around here), giving up 1 earned run, 4 hits and 2 walks (one was to former teammate, Ryan Garko’s, 12-pitch at-bat) on only 109 pitches. Lee’s bid for a no-hitter was broken up by Juan Uribe with no outs in the 6th inning (coincidentally, Juan Uribe’s error ruined Giants’ pitcher, Jonathan Sanchez’s, perfect game bid earlier in July). And he was in command of his stuff: Lee struck out 6 and against 2 walks, going into the 7th inning having only yielded two 3-ball counts.

Despite his sub .500 record this season with the lowly Indians, Lee has been stellar in his last 5 starts. He’s 4-1 with a 1.76 ERA, giving up only 8 earned runs on 2 homers and 8 doubles. He’s thrown 3 complete games in this stretch and yielded a mind-blowing .541 OPS against. Even more impressive, perhaps, is Lee’s strikeout-walk ratio of 9-1 during this time.

Lee helped his cause last night by going 2-4 at the plate with a double and a run scored. Of course, the complete game was the biggest contribution, giving a much-needed night off to the Phillies injured/shell shocked bullpen. In case you were wondering, the last pitcher to throw a complete game in his Phillies debut was Paul Byrd in 1998 (Lee’s teammate in Cleveland until 2008).

You can check out Jayson Stark’s assessment that the Phillies had the best trade deadline move as well as Peter Gammons’ identical opinion. You can also read though David Murphy’s article claiming (of course) that the Phillies outdid all other N.L. clubs. While I love the Lee move for the Phils, Matt Holliday’s acquisition’s by the Cardinals has had a huge impact (he’s hitting .567 with a 1.515 OPS since being traded; maybe the most important aspect of his arrival is the protection Pujols gets from Holliday’s bat in the lineup) as well. But I digress and return to the Phils’ fates.

The Phillies will have a big test tonight as Joe Blanton goes against Tim Lincecum. By my count, the Phillies have beaten baseball’s elite starters exactly six times this season: Adam Wainwright on May 5, Jake Peavy on June 2, Clayton Kershaw on June 4, Josh Beckett on June 14, Johan Santana on July 5 and Dan Haren July 28. Lincecum’s presence will be a big test for the Phillies’ bats, especially while pitching in that giant park. I’ll be almost as excited to see how they fare as I was anticipating what turned out to be a great start last night.

After 2 games against the Cubs, the Phillies are 2-0 which means they’ve won 5 consecutive series, 10 of their last 11 games and since getting swept by the Braves to open July, they’ve won 14 of the last 15 games. The offense has scored 93 runs during this stretch and the pitching staff is allowing an average of 2.3 runs per game, creating an average margin of victory of 4 runs.

Granted, the records of the Phillies’ last 5 opponents are a combined 18 games under .500 but the Phils are doing exactly what good teams are supposed to do: win the games on the schedule they should. It’s a good thing they’ve cleaned-up in July because their schedule through August will be a lot tougher with series against wild-card contenders San Francisco and Colorado, the N.L Central-leading Cardinals, the above-.500 Marlins and Cubs as well as 6 games against the red hot Braves. As the National League goes these days, this schedule qualifies as pretty tough.

The team’s recent success combined with the Pedro Martinez excitement, J.A. Happ hysteria and Rodrigo Lopez’s recent quality starts has created an environment where fans aren’t demanding Ruben Amaro produce Roy Halladay. Glossing over the big picture of remaining focused on a World Series win by ignoring the importance of making this trade would be an awful by-product of the current streak. Unfortunately for Amaro et al, the trade deadline is looming and a decision will have to be made before the Phils find out what they’re really made of as they face tougher competition.

With this in mind, my optimism for acquiring Halladay took a nosedive today when I read that Brett Myers is suddenly ready to defy his season-ending injury and pitch in August. With the team winning and memories of last October fresh in people’s minds, this development could produce just enough false optimism to steer the team away from trading for Halladay. But this would be a huge mistake.

The Phillies aren’t going to surpise anyone in the playoffs this year. The Dodgers are a better team than last year. Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain are a frightful 1-2 punch for the Giants. The American League representative in the World Series is likely New York or Boston, two teams with seasoned Series veterans and top-2 starting pitchers in Sabathia and Burnett and Beckett and Lester. As they’re currently composed (even with a Myers return), the Phillies starters would be at a competitive disadvantage against all these teams (with the possible exception of the Dodgers).

The Phillies look good right now and they’re doing exactly what they should be doing against inferior talent. As much as it’s possible to say this on July 22, they are a lock to make the postseason. But we should keep in mind that’s not good enough around here any more. If the Phillies are serious about winning a World Series this year, the front office needs to remain grounded and not get distracted by the past 3 weeks’ success. This means trading for Roy Halladay (or another proven top-of-the-rotation arm) and positioning themelves for more challenging competition as the final 3 months of the season approach.

…Directly to the Philadelphia Inquirer daily sports poll. Today’s queston is a chip off the old stupidity block and the responses are as ugly as Medusa giving birth to the Elephant Man. Q: “Should the Phillies give up J.A. Happ as part of a trade for Roy Halladay?” A: 50.7% no, 49.3% yes.

In typical homer fashion, the majority of fans who voted “no” are affected by exposure to Happ’s productive season here in Philly. This year Happ is 6-0 with a 2.90 ERA, pitching in the 5 spot. He has beaten Washington 3 times, Toronto once, San Diego once and the Pirates once which, despite his good numbers, means he is yet to win a game against a team over .500 this season. For his career, Happ has appeared in 31 games and is 7-1 with a 3.38 ERA, a WHIP of 1.27 and a strikeout-walk ratio of 1.92 for a team that won the World Series last year. He is off to a very nice start to his career.

This season Roy Halladay is 10-3 with a 2.85 ERA, pitching in the most difficult division in baseball. He has beaten the division-leading Angels twice, the division-leading Tigers once as well as the New York Yankees (other wins include K.C., the White Sox twice (.511), the Orioles, the Twins (.506) and the Indians). For his career, Halladay is 141-61 with an ERA of 3.47, a WHIP of 1.20 and a K/BB ratio of 3.19 and has played his entire career for a team that has never been good enough to make the playoffs.

At 32 years old, Halladay has thrown 43 complete games, appeared in 6 All-Star games and won one Cy Young award. In as much as it’s possible to say this about someone who probably needs a few more seasons (and some playoff appearances, though the lack thereof certainly isn’t his fault) to be considered, Halladay is on the fast-track to the Hall of Fame.

For as nice a start as J.A. Happ has had to his career, retaining him in a scenario where he could be traded for Roy Halladay would be simply foolish. Roy Halladay has been one of the top-5 pitchers in baseball for the past 7 seasons and (as the trajectory of his career stats indicate) has at least 5 seasons left in him. There is a reason they call players like Happ prospects: because their promise is not only to their own clubs’ futures, but in their value as trade pieces as well.

Think about it this way: if the Phillies face the Giants (Lincecum and Cain), the Cardinals (Carpenter and Wainwright), or the Dodgers with Billingsley and Kershaw in the playoffs, which top two Phillies pitchers more effectively oppose these tandems, Hamels and Happ (assuming Manuel is comfortable enough to put Happ in the #2 spot by then) or Hamels and Halladay? What if they make the World Series and face the Red Sox? Is there anyone out there who seriously thinks the Hamels/Happ duo would be better than Halladay/Hamels against Josh Beckett and Jon Lester?

Folks in this town need to start thinking about the prospect of a trade for Halladay for what it is: a chance to put a product on the field that is as good a contender for its second World Series ring as any other team out there. The inclusion of Roy Halladay on this team at the expense of J.A. Happ is no indictment of the latter, merely a recognition of what a more dangerous pitching staff this team would have if Halladay were a part of it.