Philadelphia Sports - More than Just Booing

The Cole Hamels Project: A Work In Progress

Posted by BMT on 28th April 2010

Hamels4.28.10

Philadelphia Phillies
Pitchers IP H R ER BB SO HR PC-ST ERA
C Hamels 6.0 9 4 4 4 10 0 113-67 5.28

Well thank god that’s over. The Phillies, Giants, Bruce Bochy, Ryan Madson, Brian Wilson and the Giants’ outfield all did their best to lose the game today. But in the end it was the Phillies who outlasted San Fran. After Lincecum left the game, the contest looked like two drunks in a sack race. In winning, the Phillies managed to keep pace with the first-place Mets and avoided being surpassed in the divison standings by the Nationals.

Cole Hamels’ line wasn’t all that bad. Sure, 113 pitches in 6 innings isn’t exactly encouraging. But Hamels fanned 10 Giants batters and kept the game within reach. Only receiving 1 run of support in his 6 innings speaks volumes about the motif of Hamels not getting the offense behind him, which may or may not be the reality but it sure seems to be.

To that point, Hamels has received 4.89 runs of support per 27 outs pitched this season. There’s a perception I’ve had over the past three seasons that Hamels for one reason or another doesn’t get the run support he should from an otherwise potent offense. In reality, Hamels has received the following run support totals over the past 3 seasons: 2008 4.72, 2009 4.67 2010 4.89. In those seasons the Phillies offense has averaged the following runs per game totals: 2008 4.93 2009 5.06 2010 5.43. It’s hard to speculate why this may be, but it does appear that Hamels’ outings aren’t endorsed as strongly by the lineup as are the other starters’ starts.

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Despite Bruce Bochy’s Inability To Manage, Tim Lincecum Shines

Posted by BMT on 28th April 2010

San Francisco Giants
Pitchers IP H R ER BB SO HR PC-ST ERA
T Lincecum 8.1 3 2 2 1 11 1 106-72 1.27
B Wilson 0.2 2 2 2 2 0 0 25-13 2.25
J Affeldt 0.2 1 1 1 1 1 0 15-9 3.12
S Romo 0.1 0 0 0 0 1 0 4-3 0.90
Totals 10.0 6 5 5 4 13 1 150-9

To the jackass homer who recently told me that he’s “not sold on Lincecum yet,” I present you the above line from Tim Lincecum’s ownership of the Phillies this afternoon. I would also like to present you the following:

Year Age Tm Lg W L W-L% ERA G GS GF CG SHO SV IP H R ER HR BB IBB SO HBP BK WP BF ERA+ WHIP H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB Awards
2007 23 SFG NL 7 5 .583 4.00 24 24 0 0 0 0 146.1 122 70 65 12 65 5 150 2 0 10 618 112 1.278 7.5 0.7 4.0 9.2 2.31
2008 24 SFG NL 18 5 .783 2.62 34 33 0 2 1 0 227.0 182 72 66 11 84 1 265 6 2 17 928 169 1.172 7.2 0.4 3.3 10.5 3.15 AS,CYA-1,MVP-23
2009 25 SFG NL 15 7 .682 2.48 32 32 0 4 2 0 225.1 168 69 62 10 68 2 261 6 0 11 905 177 1.047 6.7 0.4 2.7 10.4 3.84 AS,CYA-1,MVP-18
2010 26 SFG NL 4 0 1.000 1.00 4 4 0 0 0 0 27.0 19 3 3 1 6 0 32 0 0 0 105 451 0.926 6.3 0.3 2.0 10.7 5.33
4 Seasons 44 17 .721 2.82 94 93 0 6 3 0 625.2 491 214 196 34 223 8 708 14 2 38 2556 157 1.141 7.1 0.5 3.2 10.2 3.17
162 Game Avg. 16 6 .721 2.82 34 34 0 2 1 0 228 179 78 71 12 81 3 257 5 1 14 929 157 1.141 7.1 0.5 3.2 10.2 3.17

Yeah, I’m not sold on him either. The Phillies hadn’t touched Lincecum all day but Bruce Bochy did his best Charlie Manuel/Joe Girardi impression by pulling him after 8 1/3 innings and 106 pitches. Isn’t it incredible to see how much more brilliantly National League managers perform?

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3rd Place Isn’t So Bad, Is It?

Posted by BMT on 28th April 2010

National League
EAST W L PCT GB HOME ROAD RS RA DIFF STRK L10
NY Mets 13 9 .591 - 11-5 2-4 96 72 +24 Won 7 9-1
Philadelphia 11 9 .550 1 3-3 8-6 107 84 +23 Lost 3 3-7
Washington 12 10 .545 1 7-6 5-4 93 107 -14 Won 2 6-4
Florida 11 11 .500 2 5-5 6-6 106 103 +3 Lost 2 4-6
Atlanta 8 12 .400 4 5-4 3-8 77 85 -8 Lost 7 2-8

As I’m writing this Tim Lincecum is about to bat for himself in the bottom of the 8th inning, a fact that doesn’t translate to a likely win for the Phillies. And don’t look now but if The Freak can get three outs in the ninth, the word “Philadelphia” in the above standings will be underneath the word “Washington.” Good thing Amaro swapped one ace for another in the offseason.

UPDATE: The Phillies’ season is still alive as Giants’ management decided to remove their best player from the game and replace him with their worst. The Phillies subsequently rallied to tie the game.

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Vomit, Complete Games And Missing Matt Cain

Posted by BMT on 22nd April 2010

Vomitous MassWe’re not going to let the lingering stench of Jerseyites puking on little girls ruin an otherwise exciting start to the 2010 season for Ruben Amaro’s trophy pitcher, Roy Halladay. After silencing the Braves’ bats for 8 innings last night in Atlanta, Halladay did what it looks like most Phils’ starters are going to have to do in order for this team to have a chance: trot back out to the mound and finish the game. Halladay scattered 5 hits and 1 walk over 9 innings last night to get the win.

In doing so he single-handedly overcame the two obstacles that had plagued the Phillies over the last 4 games. One, he prevented the bullpen from losing the game and two, he pitched so well that the sputtering offense’s measly contribution of 2 runs was good enough for a tally in the win column. Halladay is now 2 outs short of averaging a complete game for each of his 4 starts. And in that time he’s gone 4-0 with a .82 ERA, a league-leading 28 strikeouts and, get this: 3 walks.

The Phillies offense is clearly stuck in neutral as they’ve begun to face Major League pitchers following the Nationals and Astros fell-good tour that opened the season. Tonight they’ll have to deal with yet another real hurler in Derek Lowe. But some fortuitous rotation scheduling in their upcoming series against Arizona and San Francisco means they’ll miss Dan Haren and Matt Cain (though they will face Tim Lincecum on April 28). That may be just what the doctor ordered for this lineup to get themselves into midseason shape. After all, Roy Halladay can’t pitch every night.

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More Cliff Lee Talk

Posted by BMT on 9th April 2010

Joe MamaThe schedule is sure toughening-up for the Phillies. After an opening 3 games against High-A Washington, they’ll turn their attention this evening to Double-A Houston before returning to the Aruban Winter League to face the Nationals for three more next week. With competition like this it kind of makes you feel like Cliff Lee won’t be missed.

Actually, of course, there will be 4 or 5 series this season where the Phillies will have to show up. Most of those series will be against AL teams, which is good because that will give us some insight as to whether this team can win a series with a Lee-less rotation. Before we take a look at how the Phils match up without Lee, let’s just be perfectly honest about one thing: Cliff Lee’s absence will have no bearing on the outcome of the N.L. East race; the Phillies will win this division.

Where Lee’s absence will matter is in the playoffs. I see 4 potential playoff opponents whose top-3 starters are clearly superior to the Phillies (Halladay, Hamels and Blaton) and they are (in no particular order):

  • Yankees with Sabathia, Burnett and Pettitte
  • Red Sox with Beckett, Lester and Lackey (adjust for Dice-K and Bucholtz if needed)
  • San Francisco with Lincecum, Cain and Zito
  • St. Louis with Carpenter, Wainwright and Lohse

Now, before you get all homer on me and argue that Kyle Lohse and Barry Zito are no better than Joe Blanton (which they may or may not be) keep in mind that Matt Cain and Adam Wainwright are demonstrably better than Cole Hamels. In the case of the Yankees, their top-3 have already proven themselves superior. And in Boston’s case, you could anchor the 3-spot with 3 different guys. But in both NL teams’ cases, it really comes down to the #2 guys making the difference. That is where Cliff Lee would have come in.

A lot can happen between Game #4 and Game #163. Cole Hamels could have a career year, Matt Cain could tear his ACL…who knows. But as it stands, let’s not worry too much any more about the obvious mistake Amaro made by trading Cliff Lee until the impact of that trade will really be felt. In the meantime, enjoy the season.

Posted in Phillies | 7 Comments »

Well-Done Is Always More-Important Than Well Said

Posted by BMT on 20th February 2010

Johan? Santana

That’s what Roy Halladay thinks, according to philly.com. At least that’s what Lou Holtz said, or maybe Ben Franklin. In any event, “WDIAMITWS” was the quote Doc invoked in response to the opening salvo of the annual preseason war of words between the Mets and Phillies. Mets’ ace, Johan Santana, was asked on Thursday who he thought was the best pitcher in the NL East. Not surprisingly, he answered “Santana.”

To be fair, I don’t know that Santana is wrong. His 2009 effort was his worst as a Met, a season marked by injury and unimpressive numbers. While the Phillies’ brass and local media would have you believe that Roy Halladay is the best pitcher since Sandy Koufax, the numbers don’t exactly support that. Santana has a better career WHIP than Halladay (1.113 vs. 1.198). He averages more strikeouts per season than Halladay (173.3 vs. 149.5) and fewer hits per season (143 vs, 199.7). Santana also has a lower career era than Doc (3.12 vs. 3.43), though he does give up an average of 1.8 more walks than Halladay per season. And Santana has won 2 Cy Young Awards in the American League while pitching for the Minnesota Twins. Halladay has 1 CYA as a Blue Jay.

I don’t know that there’s much of a difference between the two. In fact, other than the last two seasons Tim Lincecum put together, there aren’t better bodies of work among current pitchers than those owned by Santana and Halladay. Obviously the media wants to make a big deal out of Santana saying he’s the best pitcher in the division but in reality, there’s no reason for him to say anything other than that.

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Penny Wise, Pound Foolish

Posted by BMT on 20th January 2010

Cash Nuts

Eyebrows were raised this week when 2-time Cy Young winner, Tim Lincecum, asked for $13 million from the San Francisco Giants in his arbitration filing. The Giants are offering $8 million. Unlike other sports, in baseball arbitration the decision isn’t an arbitrated amount somewhere in the middle; it’s a process that results in either the team’s number or the player’s being awarded. The current record for money awarded through this process is $10 million (Ryan Howard, Francisco Rodriguez and Alfonso Soriano) which is probably why there’s so much noise about Lincecum’s request (for the record, Lincecum’s salaries during his two Cy Young seasons were $405,000 and $640,000).

The laugher in this year’s arbitration stakes is that Joe Blanton is asking for $10.25 million. Joe Blanton. $10.25 million. Granted, Blanton is a valuable middle of the rotation starter but this kind of request is about as reasonable as me asking for $50,000 for the work I do on this website. But that’s not even the punch line of the joke: the kicker is that the Phillies are offering $7.5 million.

Now take a moment and think about Ruben Amaro’s approach to the 2011 season with his offer to Joe Blanton in mind: if the Phillies are willing to pay the 3rd or 4th starter in their rotation $7.5 million this season (a guy with a career winning percentage of .538 and an ERA north of 4) why in the holy hell wasn’t Amaro willing to drop $1.5 million more on Cliff Lee?

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Baseball for Breakfast

Posted by BMT on 31st August 2009

sugarsmacksThe Phillies got the series win against the Braves this weekend and probably closed the door on the division, gaining an 8 game lead in the process. While I saw neither of the first two games, last night’s game was a success in the sense that it gave me very little to get angry about (I’m choosing to ignore Ryan Madson). Brad Lidge got another save, the bottom of the order hit well and Joe Blanton gave the Phillies another quality start (he has 18 on the season, only 4 behind N.L. leader, Tim Lincecum).

Given the dimensions of Citizen’s Bank Park, it’s amazing that the Phillies had such an early season slump at home. I mention that because I came across the stat yesterday (a Beerleaguer tweet, I believe it was) that the Phillies lead all teams in percentage of runs scored via home run. 46% of the Phillies runs have come off the long ball, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing but isn’t the kind of approach that traditionally leads to huge success in the post season. With that said, the Phillies did win the World Series last year with essentially the same lineup. Yet anyone who watches Jayson Werth swing the bat knows that it’s not just Matt Stairs who tries to go deep on every pitch.

And two quick personnel notes. As today is the last day to acquire a postseason-eligible player off waivers, it’s being reported that the Phillies are scouting Nomar Garciaparra. Now I know some folks will say the Phils have the right-handed-hitting-bench-player-who-can-play-any-infield-position spot covered in Eric Bruntlett, so chew this information very slowly before swallowing. Also on the waiver wire/rumor wire is news that the Brewers won’t reveal which team has claimed all-time saves leader, Trevor Hoffman, off waivers. Could it be the Phillies?

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Giant Failures

Posted by BMT on 20th August 2009

GiantsIt has been said by many (including me) that the San Francisco Giants are the team nobody wants to face in a 5-game playoff series because of their frontmen, Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain. After listening to their 10-inning loss to the Reds today, I’m changing my tune. The San Francisco Giants’ offense is so colossally inept that they’re exactly the team you’d like to see in any playoff series.

Matt Cain started the game today and pitched 8 innings and yielded 1 run. And he didn’t get a decision. In fact, in Cain’s last 4 starts his ERA of 2.77 and 30.1 innings pitched are good for exactly no wins. Cain lowered his ERA after today’s game from 2.49 to 2.43 on the season. His reward? One run of support from his offense while leaving 10 runners on base. And that was against a Reds team that ranks 11th in the N.L. in team ERA.

The Giants offense is a disgrace. They have scored only 481 runs on the season, better only than the Padres and the Reds, a team against whom they’ve scored exactly 2 runs in their last two games. Sure, they have the best team ERA in the N.L. but their run differential (+39) is the third-worst in the N.L. amongst teams with positive differentials (read: playoff contenders).

Yes, pitching wins in the playoffs but that cliche assumes the team for which the better pitching belongs can score at least one run. In the Giants’ case, that may be too much to ask. And, by the way, the Giants have the second fewest road wins of +.500 teams in the National League (only the Cubs have fewer). Which means if they do manage to make the playoffs, it will be as a wild card, thus they won’t have home field advantage. At 8-games under .500 away from Rice-a-Roni town, that doesn’t bode well for the prospect of them winning 3 games in a N.L.D.S.

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Home Sweet Home

Posted by BMT on 3rd August 2009

Well, aside from the promising start Cliff Lee gave the Phillies on Friday, there wasn’t much encouraging to come out of San Francisco this weekend as the Phillies dropped their series with the Giants. Aside from the strength of the Giants starting pitching (heck, it could have been a sweep if Matt Cain had started one of the games), maybe the biggest contributor to the Giants series win didn’t even wear a uniform: AT&T Park is not the place the Phillies want to play in a 5-game NLDS.

That ballpark does not suit the Phillies. One of the reasons a pitcher like Tim Lincecum is able to have so much success at a place like AT&T is that he’s not succeptible to big innings by the opposition because the place is so huge. A home run here, a double there; Lincecum and the Giants staff has an easier time containing rallies by opponents (especially opponents who rely heavily on the long ball like the Phillies) because that outfield eats-up home runs.

The dimensions of that park put a lot of pressure on visiting pitchers to not fall behind; sure, the Giants don’t score a lot of runs but few teams do score loads of runs in cavernous parks. The Giants lineup isn’t studded with power hitters because frankly, those guys don’t do well there (sure, Barry Bonds thrived there but he’s an exception to just about every power rule in baseball history). Small ball teams like San Fran aren’t going to score a lot of runs there but so far, they’re doing just fine at McCovey Cove.

With the Giants starting pitching, the ballpark accounts for a big reason they have the most home wins in baseball (37). If Barry Zito is on (which he was yesterday), there is no more formidable top-3 in the N.L. than Lincecum-Cain-Zito. In a 5-game series, that spells big problems for power hitting teams. If a first-round matchup between these 2 team were to transpire, it’d be interesting to see how Charlie Manuel and Bruce Bochy would manage their starters according to the two diametrically-opposed ballparks. After this weekend, though, that’s a theoretical I might prefer to leave in the realm of imagination.

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